Alberta 2012

[Smid]

I'll try to do them in time!

[Hatman]

I'll try to do them in time!

Excellent. What does "in time" mean? Before the election, or before the writ drops?

[Smid]

Hoping to finish them by the election, but no guarantees. Moving house soon to much further out so my travel time will increase and I'll have less time to put into this. Also got a big work-related election mapping project (almost finished, but probably another week or two to go on it). I'll try to finish it by the election, though.

[Hatman]

Oh. Darn. Well, better than nothing.

[Smid]

A few estimates... Not terribly scientific since in some cases polls at the last election were split between two different ridings, so in some cases I've had a guess at transferring voters. If you find different estimates of notional results on any other site or by anyone else (eg. Krago), use those figures instead.

Airdrie
PC - 5,746 (62.52%)
Lib - 1,158 (12.6%)
NDP - 470 (5.11%)
Wildrose - 1,370 (14.91%)
Greens - 446 (4.85%)
Informal Votes - 19

Bonnyville - Cold Lake
doesn't seem to have changed boundaries.

Cardston - Taber - Warner
gains a reservation from Livingstone - Macleod (4,106 voters, 40 Liberal votes, 7 PC votes). No further changes. With such a low turnout in the area transferred in, I didn't transfer any declaration votes.
PC - 4,381 (45.86%)
Lib - 476 (4.98%)
NDP - 190 (1.99%)
Wildrose - 4,325 (45.28%)
Greens - 180 (1.88%)
Informal - 14

Dunvegan - Central Peace
had some very minor changes to the Eastern boundary, near the Northern boundary. I don't think that makes any difference to the overall result.

Fort McMurray - Conklin
PC - 1,963 (61.54%)
Lib - 810 (25.39%)
NDP - 267 (8.37%)
Greens - 150 (4.7%)
Informal Votes - 13 (0.41%)

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo
PC - 2,547 (65.19%)
Lib - 931 (23.83%)
NDP - 281 (7.19%)
Greens - 148 (3.79%)
Informal Votes - 11 (0.28%)

Lethbridge East
PC - 5,104 (39.76%)
Lib - 5,819 (45.33%)
NDP - 753 (5.87%)
Wildrose - 827 (6.44%)
Greens - 333 (2.59%)
Informal Votes - 59 (0.46%)

Lethbridge West
PC - 4,613 (43.36%)
Lib - 3,785 (35.58%)
NDP - 1,113 (10.46%)
Wildrose - 776 (7.29%)
Greens - 351 (3.3%)
Informal Votes - 37 (0.35%)

Little Bow
PC - 5,509 (59.05%)
Lib - 1,105 (11.84%)
NDP - 337 (3.61%)
Wildrose - 2,095 (22.45%)
Greens - 284 (3.04%)
Informal Votes - 22 (0.24%)

Peace River
had some minor transfers from Dunvegan - Central Peace, but not enough to be able to estimate a changed margin.

[Smid]

Remembering... very tentative estimates.

Edmonton - Beverley - Clareview
PC - 4,487 (37.76%)
Lib - 2,128 (17.91%)
NDP - 4,464 (37.57%)
Wildrose - 343 (2.89%)
Greens - 223 (1.88%)
Independent - 193 (1.62%)
Social Credit - 45 (0.38%)
Informal Votes - 36 (0.3%)
The greatest difference between PC and NDP votes, favouring PC, was in the northern polls and proportion of declaration votes transferred from polls in Edmonton - Manning. It could be assumed that the NDP vote may have been higher had the contest in that riding been PC vs NDP, and therefore some of those Liberal votes may have shifted from the Liberal column to the NDP column (ie. strategic voting) and may well have closed the 23 vote gap between PC and NDP. This is all speculative, however.

Edmonton Centre
PC - 3,268 (29.41%)
Lib - 5,006 (45.05%)
NDP - 2,133 (19.19%)
Wildrose - 199 (1.79%)
Greens - 466 (4.19%)
Alberta Party - 41 (0.37%)
Informal Votes - 78 (0.7%)

Edmonton - Highlands - Norwood
PC - 2,640 (28.67%)
Lib - 1,872 (20.33%)
NDP - 4,206 (45.68%)
Wildrose - 176 (1.91%)
Greens - 313 (3.4%)
Alberta Party - 1 (0.01%)
Informal Votes - 35 (0.38%)

Edmonton - Manning
PC - 3,674 (36.75%)
Lib - 2,093 (20.94%)
NDP - 1,867 (18.68%)
Wildrose - 218 (2.18%)
Greens - 211 (2.11%)
Independent - 1,933 (19.34%)

[Smid]

Still just estimates.

Calgary - Bow
PC - 7,615 (55.72%)
Lib - 3,789 (27.72%)
NDP - 400 (2.93%)
Wildrose - 1,208 (8.84%)
Greens - 591 (4.32%)
Social Credit - 64 (0.47%)
Informal - 39

The area transferred from Foothills - Rocky View to Calgary - Bow did not appear to have any streets constructed yet, and therefore I did not transfer any voters between the two ridings.

Calgary - McCall
PC - 2,869 (42.66%)
Lib - 2,939 (43.7%)
NDP - 210 (3.12%)
WR - 400 (5.95%)
GRN - 307 (4.57%)
Informal - 35

Calgary - West
PC - 5,345 (49.34%)
Lib - 3,437 (31.73%)
NDP - 196 (1.81%)
Wildrose - 1,438 (13.27%)
Greens - 417 (3.85%)
Informal - 17

[Hatman]

I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though!

[Smid]

I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though!

Ah, yes, makes sense... if he's being paid to do them for CBC I guess it becomes their intellectual propoerty. Hopefully on election night they'll have a swing column on their results page at which point I guess it will be in the public domain? My estimates will just have to be okay until then. I'd still trust his results more, but I guess these are better than not having anything.

I've been putting together a map of notional results at the same time - once I've typed my estimate here, I transfer the result to a map. I'll put that up once I'm finished.

[Hatman]

Excellent stuff Smid, you're my hero.

[Smid]

It's nothing spectacular but I do appreciate the compliment!

[Joe Republic]

I'm just going to leave this here:

[Smid]

I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

[Hatman]

The writ is expected to drop any day now. BTW, Smid, do you support the Tories or the Wildrose?

[Smid]

Strongly supporting Wildrose. Mrs Smid knows people on both sides of the divide but a couple of close friends are working for Wildrose. I prefer the real Tories there, anyway - as Rogue Beaver says, PC are all adjective and no noun.

[redcommander]

I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.

It would be a rather Machiavellian ploy - get the immature misogynist vote and the anti-immature-misogynist vote (by claiming one's opponents are immature misogynists).

[RogueBeaver]

At least the Liberal bubble burst. Hopefully the leaders' debate (s?) is worth something.

[redcommander]

I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.

It would be a rather Machiavellian ploy - get the immature misogynist vote and the anti-immature-misogynist vote (by claiming one's opponents are immature misogynists).

It's probably not that convoluted, and was a mistake, but it's still a little funny that no one thought that it might be inappropriate to Smith's face above two bus wheels.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution will apparently be tomorrow.

[Hatman]

Election called for April 23

[Smid]

Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.

[Hatman]

Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.

The one's with the most changes.

[Hatman]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

[RogueBeaver]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.