Greece 2012

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Can we at least go a few minutes without marking disparaging remarks about Greeks? I know some forumers seem to find that very difficult but hey, fairness and analysis and all that.

No.  My grandparents who hailed from Greece just had their burning desire to get the hell out of there asap when they were young, validated.

That was validated a long time ago. Though America should share some responsibility in that.

[I left.]

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.

Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Now I'm confused - What are you complaining about? I simply stated that I believe the Euro has caused a great deal of harm, especially evidenced by the fact that 7% of Greeks have been lured into voting for open national socialists. I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

Do you disagree with this?

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.

Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Now I'm confused - What are you complaining about? I simply stated that I believe the Euro has caused a great deal of harm, especially evidenced by the fact that 7% of Greeks have been lured into voting for open national socialists. I find it ironic that the currency that was supposed to enhance freedom and peace in Europe has lead to consequences such as this.

Do you disagree with this?

No. However, I would not say the problem has just been the euro.

But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.

[Meeker]

The ANEL leader is refusing to meet with ND; says they are "traitors."

ND has met with SYRIZA, PASOK and DIMAR (though DIMAR has said it would not support an ND-PASOK government). ND not meeting with KKE or XA for obvious reasons.

SYRIZA has also ruled out a coalition with ND.

I think all that together shoots any possible formula to bits.

[Beet]

There's no point in supporting the anti-austerity far right when there are anti-austerity leftists to support, as in the case in Greece.

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.

[Bacon King]

Not to interrupt the discussion, but coalition news:

-Samaras says he'll probably conclude exploratory mandate tomorrow, success or failure
-ANEL refused to even enter talks with ND
-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

[I left.]

But the tones of your remarks have had all the hallmarks of smugness and a sense of superiority. At least, to me.

Well to an extent. I feel confirmed in my belief that the Euro is destined to cause trouble. I

Sense of superiority to what or who though? The Greeks? No. While I do believe they made a very immature and dangerous decision yesterday (something px would certainly agree to), bad times are known to bring out the worst in voters. The average Greek voter, I believe I read in the Frankfurt Rundschau this morning, earns 30% less than he did two years ago. While you can argue about whether they were making too much to begin with..... on a personal level, it's certainly very devestating.

[© Tweed the Younger]

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.

[I left.]

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

KKE wants actual power like they want the plague.

Indeed. Perpetual opposition is their entire raison d'être.

[asexual trans victimologist]

An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.

[politicus]

The euro is an obvious disaster [along with austerity as it has been enacted], but Greece will not leave it imminently, and Germany will not kick them out. No one seems to be discussing the ideal solution, which is that Germany and a few other neighboring countries leave the euro and form a separate D-M zone, leaving France to pursue its long-held ambitions of leading the euro. So it is an impasse.

That's because its completely unrealistic. The Euro was and is first and foremost a political project and the German-French axis is still the core of the EU. No common European currency without France.

As a Scandinavian I can regret that because your idea would be appealing to Denmark and Sweden. You cant sell the Euro to Scandinavian voters, but a new D-Mark would be another matter.

Regarding Greece the chances of avoiding a second election looks slim (below 5%). Any thoughts about who would win a rematch?

[Meeker]

Some finance ministry folks are now saying that the country could run out of money by the end of June if a new government isn't in place to negotiate another aid tranche and if government revenues fall below the forecast.

Also KKE is now saying that ND did reach out to them but KKE refused to meet. lol

[crypto-fascist superhero]

The guys on Something Awful argued that the ND's best hope is to encourage bribe individual members of ANEL to jump ship to ND and members of DIMAL to join PASOK.  It'd be a tough sell (who wants to climb onto a sinking ship?), but with the right kind of inducements, it doesn't seem too far out.

That's exactly what I was thinking.  (Also, what's so conservative about ANEL anyway?  Socon/anti-immigrant?)

An anti-austerity coalition would have to include either one of the two 'system' parties or the Nazis, and one including the Nazis would have a majority of 2 seats, unless Tsipras thinks a few ND or PASOK MPs can be lured away. A couple dozen defections would keep the Nazis out but I'm not sure if anybody considers that at all likely or not.

Perhaps everyone-but-Nazis with the Nazis giving confidence and supply?  (Although I imagine anything involving the Nazis will cause DIMAR or SYRIZA deputies to defect to PASOK, giving the grand coalition a majority).



My Greece, you are a clusterphuck!  Thanks for sinking the US economy, assholes!

[I left.]

It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

It's not the same thing (reserve currency status), but it's not like the U.S. is in much better financial shape than Greece. Look at the American deficit.

Well of course, but it's not it's caused an international financial panic yet.

[Californian Tony]

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.

[batmacumba]

@Nathan: It's not clear to whom he was referring with his [batmacumba] comments about 'retarded votes'. I hope it is the neonazis but I can't be sure, look at attitudes the likes of Franzl have constantly displayed in threads on this issue to see this.

the Left should support the anti-austerity far right in certain strategic situations.

Tweed, you have lost me now.

the point is to break out of the grip of the international financial institutions: THE crucial plank shared by the far right and Left (Syriza, KKE insofar as it has an actual platform, and GD).  then once that is done, the vacuum is created and we can slug it out on the streets.

Do I really need to explain why this is a terrible idea?

Mist, I really don't know what's not clear. You were the only to have misunderstood. My sentence does not contain the word 'Greek' at all. And if It was like you thought, it would be about turn out, which is obviously not the case.

Tweed, to use a metaphore which is dare to you marxists, it does matter the cat's colour. Not only this, but the puss may chase birds along with rats. And this may be worse than the rats.

EDIT. Opposite to other forumers, I do not bash the results at all. I find them very healthy, actually, despite the utterly-retarded branch.

[Bacon King]

For the record, here's the final results with 100% in.

Turnout:         65.10%
Valid votes:    97.64%
Invalid votes:   1.80%
Blank votes:     0.55%


Final margin between ND and SYRIZA: 2.07%

ND:	108	18.85%
SYRIZA:	52	16.78%
PASOK:	41	13.18%
ANEL:	33	10.60%
KKE:	26	8.48%
XA:	21	6.97%
DIMAR:	19	6.11%
(total below threshold):		(19.03%)
Greens:		2.93%
LAOS:		2.90%
DISY:		2.55%
DX!:		2.15%
Drasi:		1.80%
ANTARSYA:		1.19%
(parties <1%):		(5.43%)

[Californian Tony]

A pity the greens didn't get in.

I'm positively surprised the turnout didn't dwindle that much. Unless 65% is unusually low for Greece, but I doubt it is.

[jaichind]

Samaras of ND hands back mandate to Prez saying that he could not form a government.  I guess it would be Syriza's turn.  I doubt they would come up with anything.  It seems another election is coming.  I am surprised at this turn of events.  I figured that Samaras would try for al least a couple of days.  It could be that he feels that any government would not last long and will further destroy the ND.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Antonis Samaras, who received a
mandate to form a government for Greece today, said he failed to
reach agreement with the five party leaders he spoke with and
handed back the mandate to President Karolos Papoulias.
     The mandate to form a government will now pass to the head
of the second-biggest parliamentary party arising from the
elections yesterday, Syriza.

[Bacon King]

BREAKING FROM AP (if not entirely expected): ND leader Samaras announces he is unable to form a coalition government.

So Syriza is up to bat tomorrow; let's see what they can do!

edit- my internet weirded out and it took me five minutes to make this post, so I got ninja'd by jaichind

[Bacon King]

In other news, here's an amusing bit of sensationalism from Forbes.

Highlights:

With the Second Reich destroyed, what was Germany? What was it for? These existential questions are the same that face Greece, and the fresh electoral triumph of its far-left and far-right parties repeats the pattern of competing answers first put on display in ’20s and ’30s Germany. ...

... The tinderbox in Greece is devilishly simple: the military. Unlike most countries in Europe, Greece has an outsized military budget, and the armed forces to match... Indeed, the real issue is that a civil war now appears far more likely in Greece than a war of aggression. ...

... There is only France. Can anyone envision Hollande sending the tricolor to Athens — even in the name of left solidarity?

The state of play in Europe is straightforward. Greece is very likely to become a failed state. Over the next five years, civil war is probable.

[© Tweed the Younger]

lol at the Hollande bit.  still nice to see some panic at the outer reaches of the business press.

[politicus]

Who do you think will gain from a new election? Establishment or new parties?

[The Mikado]

-Syriza very eager to attempt an anti-austerity coalition, even saying he'll allow Commie Alexa to be Prime Minister, and saying he'll accept support from ANEL. Not likely to go anywhere, of course.

Serious stuff aside, a governing coalition gathering paleocommies, random far-lefties, populist right-wingers and literal nazis would be something quite epically hilarious to see.

The "everyone not in favor of austerity" coalition would be the most tragicomic government ever created.