Greece 2012

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Expected in February 2012 and posted because I found this poll amusing:

ND 30%
PASOK 15.5%
SYRIZA 14%
KKE 13.5%
Dem Left 9.5%
Nazis 6%
Greenies 4%
DISY 3%
Others 4.5%

It would be great if the KKE placed second!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

[You kip if you want to...]

Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.

[Jack Vance RIP]

Bit like the Spanish election: they hate both main parties.

In Spain, the PP, despite running an incompetent campaign with an incompetent leader that nobody seems to like, managed to win the best result in their history.

Meanwhile, according to this poll, the ND would be the biggest party in parliament despite actually getting a smaller share of the vote than in 2009.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

If there is one single depressing election in the world's history, it will probably be this one.

[Jack Vance RIP]

Actually, I have to wonder.. if that result came to pass, would sort of government would form?

[RodPresident]

Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What are the differences between the Dem Left and PASOK? Don't both parties want to remain in the Eurozone and accept austerity measures? Although I'd imagine the Dem Left is more friendly towards SYRIZA, seeing as they're a breakaway party, there doesn't seem to be very many substantial differences between them.

I'm really curious to see that if the disparate leftist/anti-euro forces can settle their differences after this election to end this ordeal. Stranger things have happened...

edit: I'm hoping for a KKE or SYRIZA overperformance

[Senator MaxQue]

What happened to the old Synapsiamos?

[Vasall des Midas]

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't.

What happened to the old Synapsiamos?

Renamed (merged with some minor organizations to form Syriza).

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

If the forces of the "hard" left united, they could win this election...

There are historical reasons why they won't.

It would certainly be hilarious if the Communists took Greece 65 years late.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Figuring in the majority bonus, here's how Parliament would look with those results:



And this is what it would look like if the three parties of the left were amalgamated:

What a shame it will never happen...

[asexual trans victimologist]

The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.


One-day-newer poll:

ND 29.3%
PASOK 17.1%
KKE 13.6%
SYRIZA 10.7%
LAOS 9.2%
DIMAR 5.9%
Greens 5.8%
DISY 2.5%
Others 5.9%

By my very rough calculations that comes out to:

ND 123
PASOK 49
KKE 39
SYRIZA 30
LAOS 26
DIMAR 17
Greens 16

Bear in mind that with the 3% election threshold DISY misses out on representation with these numbers. Isn't it sad, DISY?

United Left:

Left 126
ND 83
PASOK 49
LAOS 26
Greens 16

[Vasall des Midas]

The majority bonus and whatever in the world Italy's system is technically called are probably the most flagrantly absurd electoral systems going right now, at least on paper. Straight-out just allocating blocks of seats to whoever got the most votes just rubs me the wrong way.

French local elections have that too.

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

[asexual trans victimologist]

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

[I left.]

I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters?

[Iannis]

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I like numerical majority bonuses (those like the Greek one, which consists in a block of seats awarded to a party) as long as they aren't too big (16.67%, which means you need 40% for a majority, is my upper limit). That said, the Italian system sucks indeed. You could get 20% and still win 55% of the seats.

What happened to proportionality and fairly representing the intent of the voters?

It's still 1000 times fairer than constituency voting, where a party can get less votes than another and still win more seats.

[Vasall des Midas]

I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

There is a logic to it though - ensuring the winner has a thumping majority that can take some defections but the loser (and especially the losing side's lead personnel) cannot be locked out of the council/parliament/whatever, as can happen under fptp systems.

I understand the logic behind it but I still think it's chimerical in...well, let's just say a way that doesn't appeal to me.

 Of course proportional representation is the best but this bonus is anyway far better than FPTP. In practice, it is an incentive for broad colitions. In the 2 occasions in which it has been used in Italy the winning coalition neve had less than 46,8% of votes, and even according present polls the winning coalition would have 45%

There's still a huge moral problem : the winning coalition wins the same number of seats no matter its results. Which also means that, the lower the results of the winning coalition are, the more other parties will be underrepresented. It might not have been a huge problem for general elections until now, but look at the current municipal council, where the De Magistris coalition holds 64% of the seats despite winning only 17% of the vote !!! That's pretty insane.

Also note that a 10% numerical majority bonus would have given the winning coalitions the same number (or slightly more) seats in 2006 and 2008.

I do like the bit of the Italian law about members of coalitions that fall by the threshold having their votes transferred to their coalition partners.

Yes, this is a very good thing. One of the main problem with election thresholds is the spoiler effect of little parties, and the Italian system has solved this problem. The majority bonus system is still pretty awful though.

[Sibboleth]

Ultimately it's an example of an electoral law that attempts to have its cake and eat it.

[Leftbehind]

Probably Papademos remains as PM, unless PASOK wants to show that is left and accept a nationalist left-wing pro-default coalition.

Sure, if they want to destroy Europe and proceed to be shunned from the continent.

More's the pity that similar results aren't being replicated across Europe.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Proportional representation with a majority bonus combines the worst features of PR (unelected legislators) with the worst features of FPTP (legislature unrepresentative of popular vote).