French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Vasall des Midas]

So, last news...

Several proposals of several persons continued today apparently, but, at one point, Copé had given an ultimatum to Fillon to withdraw his group, 15h.

At 15h, the group was indeed maintained, so Michèle Tabarot, n°3 of Copé direction officially intervened to say that, now this is over. Copé is president, he stops all negotiations and he gonna do what he has been elected for, his job of opponent. Period.

What Fillon has been elected for, surely?


Thanks Hash!
That east-west split of Champagne is funny.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

And look this so far discrete inflammable decision taken by Hollande govt today:

http://www.metrofrance.com/info/prix-de-l-essence-bercy-vigilant/mlkB!vgQM3VHh69OTg/

Some tax reductions on gas were planned to be over on Friday, there was a question about continuing reductions for people who have the less money, proposition abandoned, no more tax reductions.

Oh, and look, there is an other one that can be pretty controversial:

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/immigration-valls-publie-de-nouveaux-criteres-pour-regulariser-les-sans-papiers-28-11-2012-2362523.php

Valls publishes today the new future rules for immigration, thankfully better than Sarkozy's (of which some were pretty shameful) but tougher than what Hollande said during his campaign (and of which some can still be considered opened to criticism).

Not that a majority of French would be frustrated to have tighter rules on immigration than what was announced (which already was a kind of surrendering to nowadays populism regarding this), it would even rather be the opposite, but militant associations regarding those topics kind be pretty active and demonstrative, I guess it's better for the govt to avoid the most mess possible...

They should go fast if they have other controversial decisions to take! UMP mess seems to slowly go lower now!...(well...so far).

So, last news...

Several proposals of several persons continued today apparently, but, at one point, Copé had given an ultimatum to Fillon to withdraw his group, 15h.

At 15h, the group was indeed maintained, so Michèle Tabarot, n°3 of Copé direction officially intervened to say that, now this is over. Copé is president, he stops all negotiations and he gonna do what he has been elected for, his job of opponent. Period.

What Fillon has been elected for, surely?

President of the RUMP.

[Hashemite]

The Fillonistas said they would remain attached with the UMP for the second fraction of party financing earlier today, but that seems to have been before Jeff pulled the plug and told them to get get f-ed. I hope they break all bridges... if only because it'd be fun to see a Balkanized right.

[big bad fab]

The Fillonistas said they would remain attached with the UMP for the second fraction of party financing earlier today, but that seems to have been before Jeff pulled the plug and told them to get get f-ed. I hope they break all bridges... if only because it'd be fun to see a Balkanized right.

They'll eventually break all bridges. It has gone too far.
And the attachment to a party is valid for only one year. So, in 2013...

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

It's 1917!

American troops came in!

Yeah, some young unexperimented troops, but numerous and full of good will, the Non-Alignés, officially joined the fight.

This morning a communiqué of 139 MPs called for some new elections.

Those 139 are the now 71 R-UMP (according to the last news I heard), and the Non-Alignés, which would make 78 non-alignés, which would now make only 56 Copé MPs!

Fillon, like Clémenceau, decided to directly push his advantage further, announcing the creation of a working group of about 10 people madé of Copés, Fillons, and N-As, to work on the organization of future elections.

And, moreover, yesterday evening, you had 6 federations of Eastern France calling for the 'Elders Commission', something already present in UMP rules, to be constituted in order to also wonder to new elections, they said:

'30 people became crazy in Paris and are taking our party in hostage. We don't want Copé! We don't want Fillon! We want a united UMP!'

It makes...

139 out of 195 MPs
112 out of 131 Sénateurs
6 federations

...all calling for new elections.

And Sarkozy and Copé have lunche dtogether today, and I'm just hearing that, according to journalists both men could have agreed on a new vote!

Sane forces are taking over!

All of this would play in favor of Fillon, if a new vote actually occurs, it would be a 1st defeat for Copé. Moreover, maybe Fillon wouldn't even run again in a new vote, just like he said on his TF1's 20h, he said he was no more interested in UMP presidency but in making the truth and the justice win. While Copé always appeared as the guy who had the appearing legitimacy for him but also who wanted the job at all costs. Fillon could in the end appear like the tough warrior who only fought for the sake of his family, which would reinforce his presidential status for next presidential elections.

Meanwhile, it could very end be the N-As who would finish winners of a new vote, because that have been the only ones to always preach for unity above presidency, especially if Fillon doesn't run, and especially since Juppé is their biggest figurehead, the good old wise man, and moreover someone to which Fillon camp always said they would let the presidency.

Copé losing over Fillon-Juppé would also be Sarkozyste rupture losing over traditional Gaullisme-RPR, which would pretty much fit the mood of the country which chose Hollande, a rather quiet, reassuring, and saner political class, after the oddities of Royal-Sarkozy era...

If it's 1917, it would mean that 1918 is not far!

That being said, if Fillon acts too much like a Clémenceau, and that Copé finish in the end totally humiliated, they should beware not to create a 1933, or worse, latter, a 1939...

But whatever, today is a present day, maybe it was for the last figurehead of Gaullisme-RPR...

80 years today!

[Hashemite]

3 extra members for the RUMP: Valerie Boyer, Guy Teissier (both from Marseille and both pretty conservative) and Marcel Bonnot (Doubs, seems liberalish).

The "non-aligned" motion is a big smokescreen. As Laurent de Boissieu pointed out, besides the 33 'real' neutrals you have 12 soft or late fillonistes (Bertrand, Accoyer, Apparu, Douillet - plus amusingly 3 RUMP deputies who signed a text calling for the unity of AN group...) and 27 copeistes (Luca, Guaino, Le Fur, Balkany)...
ftr: http://nkm-blog.org/appel-a-lunite-de-notre-famille-politique/

[Marcus Aurelius]

I don't think Fillon really keeps a shot at the nomination in 2017 : he lost too much energy in this, and was a bit passive, he had to have his "troops" do a ot of the work, and French people just love their man of action, even if it means rigging elections and what not. I don't even know if he still would want  anymore, since I would think this whole thing might have disgusted him a little.

Don't hope too much about Juppé, he'llnot be running even if there was another vote, he's too old for this sh**t and has pretty much told that last week.

But it could be the perfect time for a "newcomer" (well, our beloved "quadras" who are often "quinquas"...) to steal the day. NKM has been a bit off with her calls, sometimes I just thought she was looking a bit childish. The one we haven't heard much about, who is very close to being the new "best among us", is... Le Maire. He's my favorite, since I once heard him a full hour on France Culture talking about philosophy, literature, culture etc. I never heard him say a "bigger than him bullsh**t" (maybe he has, though), but in any other scenario he would not stand a chance, as French people don't like politicians which they can well see are way smarter than them...

But in this scenario, who knows ?

[Californian Tony]

Good to see Fillon is still holding on. I hope he will eventually find the courage to break all bridges and, along with the other sane people in his party, start something anew. It would be the best thing to happen to the French right in over a decade.

[big bad fab]

3 extra members for the RUMP: Valerie Boyer, Guy Teissier (both from Marseille and both pretty conservative) and Marcel Bonnot (Doubs, seems liberalish).

The "non-aligned" motion is a big smokescreen. As Laurent de Boissieu pointed out, besides the 33 'real' neutrals you have 12 soft or late fillonistes (Bertrand, Accoyer, Apparu, Douillet - plus amusingly 3 RUMP deputies who signed a text calling for the unity of AN group...) and 27 copeistes (Luca, Guaino, Le Fur, Balkany)...
ftr: http://nkm-blog.org/appel-a-lunite-de-notre-famille-politique/

Many local conflicts have spilled over to the national scene:
Dati-Charon-Goasguen-Küster-Lecoq vs Goujon-Lamour-Lellouche-Debré-Legaret in Paris
Balkany-Sarkozy-Solère vs Guillet-Devedjian-Guéant in Hauts-de-Seine
Tabarot-Luca vs Ciotti-Estrosi in Alpes-Maritimes
Raffarin-Quentin vs Bussereau (a smooth one, though) in Poitou-Charentes
Gaudin-Deflesselles vs Boyer-Teissier in Bouches-du-Rhône
even Warsmann vs Poletti in Ardennes or Vautrin vs Robinet in Marne
not so sure about possible row between Cornut-Gentille and Baroin in Aube.

Pécresse is a bit alone in Yvelines.
And please note that Devedjian has seen his election cancelled: provided he is reelected (but I'm very pessimistic: many copesits will vote for the leftist candidate...), he'll follow Fillon.
On th eother hand, if Aboud regains the seat in Herault, he'll stick to Copé.
These by-elections will have a very special taste : which factor will be more important: unpopularity of Hollande and Ayrault or disappointment with the UMP civil war ?
I still think Aboud can make it, but I'm very pessimistic about Devedjian.
Plagnol should be safe in Val-de-Marne (he is UDI and must be relieved to be so ).

Too bad we don't have a split in the Senate, because it would be fine to count every real fillonist.

[Californian Tony]

So Guéant was aligned with Devedjian and Solère with Balkany? Color me surprised.

[Senator MaxQue]

So Guéant was aligned with Devedjian and Solère with Balkany? Color me surprised.

Well, Boulogne mayor sided with Filion, while Solère, his opponent and dissident was on Copé side.

Guéant was on Filion side and wants a revote. He refuses to go behind Copé as long he isn't the clear and legit winner.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Waterloo ! Waterloo ! Waterloo ! morne plaine !
Comme une onde qui bout dans une urne trop pleine,
Dans ton cirque de bois, de coteaux, de vallons,
La pâle mort mêlait les sombres bataillons.
D'un côté c'est l'Europe et de l'autre la France.
Choc sanglant ! des héros Dieu trompait l'espérance ;
Tu désertais, victoire, et le sort était las.

Victor Hugo



Le calme après la tempête

...if you allow me to telescope 2 different parts of History.

...less flattering for French here though.

So yeah, it's like a silence after (and before?) a battle today...

Yesterday evening you had Christian Jacob, leader of the UMP MP group, not only pro-Copé but quite close of Copé who said he was ready to work with Fillon working group on new elections, to which you can add Sarkozy who apparently pushed Copé to go for new elections, this plus the fact that N-As group would include some Sarkozystes who showed as Copé so far (Balkany!), more than ever, Copé is alone today, and shows as the guy entrenched in his castle, Rue de Vaugirard, 2 days ago, when he said all negotiations were over he already began to try to make a lot of criticisms on Hollande, now he is totally invisible...

Today, a pro-Fillon, Joyandet, even said Copé could eventually keep the presidency till a new vote, Joyandet might as well only represent his opinion, but it would show that Copé is considered as less and less important...

Regularly, each time a new vote is evoked, the time limit which is evoked is one year.

Nothing is decided though so far, Rethondes is not already here, and while Copé hasn't yet surrendered, close relatives of him said he wanted to hear nothing about a new vote yesterday evening, Sainte-Héléne seems closer and closer for him...

Our true Napoléon though...

(...gosh, how come can I post a cover of this so called 'The Economist', lol, 'France's chance'...)

...has played pretty well so far, and it's amusing to see his troops moving here and there with the evolution of the conflict...

I still think the N-As/Juppé could finish winners of this on the short term, and I've been surprised how high Fillon succeeds to stay quite high in UMP sympathizers polls, but it would effectively fit nowadays' mood in France, to go toward a more classical political class, but how it could turn in 5 years could be quite different, and the true Napoléon isn't in Sainte-Héléne yet, only in...

...Ile d'Elbe Cap Nègre

The next elections, Municipales 1st, that could have already been quite good for the new FN before all this could be still better for them now (anything better than 1995 would be seen as a victory for MLP, I remember in 1995, for town halls, 3 small cities and a big one, and he was like 'FN won elections!!', was kinda something, and MLP seems to be able to do better than her father at any level...), notably through the alliances they could try to set in order to screw still more UMP coherence and solidity, especially if this becomes led by centrists of the party in between...

Européennes then, in which both, the new FN 1st, especially if Euro Zone doesn't seem to be safe and/or the classical political class tries to go toward further European integration, which seems to be what is more or less planned, UMP or PS, and one more time still more if UMP is led by N-As/Juppé direction, extremist electorates use not to care about those elections but if the European context is special, you never know, and the UDI then, which outside of a lack of coherence and solidity in the UMP could also benefit of the disappearing of Europe Ecologie, to become the big centrist force of this election, of which the usual electorate is the centrist one, the both could make big enough scores, and maybe the both bigger ones than UMP, because both of have clear lines, and with a more and more controversial topic like Europe people might prefer clear positions

We'll see though, 2 years are long, especially nowadays where crazy stuffs can happen every once in a while...

That being said, maybe Régionales-Départementales 2015 could eventually be favorable for what the classical right would have become in between (if it still exists! ^^), we don't even know what kind of scrutiny it will be since the last reform has been canceled a few days ago, but wow, if MLP does better than her father it would mean it would be more messy than 1998! Would also be something if so, was messy, and the PS might eventually play with that with the scrutiny they gonna choose. But then we speak about something coming in 3 years, becomes unreasonable...

In all cases, not really good perspectives for UMP so far on the longer term...

Anyways today is silencious, even the 24h media began to become bored with that, and all the UMP figureheads are hiding and discussing behind the scene, maybe it took them 10-12 days to understand the pitiful show they were giving.

24h media, and I guess classical media will follow, also found a new bone back an old bone with still a bit of meat on it (which isn't easy since it's the been the most covered stuff ever worldwide! more than 9/11...), but still, it remains bit of meat on that...

...bone (couldn't resist )

Hollande really gets lucky nowadays...

Ah, and very last hot news, Sarkozy would have strongly intervened, again, to tell both men that now they have to find a solution, the new vote still seems to be the only proposal, both camps seems to more and more find ways...

It is said an encounter could happen between Copé and Fillon on Monday, and in between both camps could eventually hold a political meeting each, Tuesday would be a kind of ultimatum date, this is when the R-UMP would have to officially sit and overall ask its own questions or not, this is when the symbolic rupture will happen, or not.

So far I'd say it goes toward a new vote.

It would have been fancy to have a national Néo-Calédonien political party though...

...and then you can see that Fillon really embodies the classical RPR line...



...les îles...

And then if Nouvelle-Calédonie would have broken up in 2014 we could have had a total secession of the UMP! Fillon running for presidency of Nouvelle-Calédonie! Raising an army! Coming back to France to oust Copé! One more Napoléon! And maybe one more Waterloo then too...And in the end, who wins? Anglos!

Bloody French Right, so Napoleonian, the N-As winning would be a good thing...

Poor Copé though...

And in my dream, Copé declared himself president of the UMP 3 times!

Each time I think about it, it makes me laugh, 3 official victory declarations and could lose in the end!

[Hashemite]

The Fillonistas published this... interesting... picture:

[Leftbehind]

Can you explain the relevance for us? Haven't been following this closely.

[Californian Tony]

Can you explain the relevance for us? Haven't been following this closely.

The relevance? Copé is a disgusting asshole and he wants the job so much that he's ready to do anything to avoid a fair vote, including causing his own party to explode. Now the question is whether Fillon and the other UMPers who aren't soulless careerists will have the balls to break with Copé's thugs and start a new party.

[Leftbehind]

Sorry, should've been more clear: I meant in the photo posted. I don't understand who is circled and why. I understand the rest, or at least understand the basics you helpfully described. 

[Californian Tony]

Sorry, should've been more clear: I meant in the photo posted. I don't understand who is circled and why. I understand the rest, or at least understand the basics you helpfully described. 

Oh, sorry.

The guys circled are the president and a member of the intra-party commission in charge of certifying the election results. The picture was presumably taken at a Copé rally.

[big bad fab]

Sorry, should've been more clear: I meant in the photo posted. I don't understand who is circled and why. I understand the rest, or at least understand the basics you helpfully described. 

Oh, sorry.

The guys circled are the president and a member of the intra-party commission in charge of certifying the election results. The picture was presumably taken at a Copé rally.

The rally in which he declared his candidacy.
So, Paternotte was a supporter of Copé FROM THE BEGINNING...

[Simfan34]

An fascinating drama. Your picture reminds me that until the scandal, I thought DSK was a woman.

[RogueBeaver]

There will be a revote in September 2013.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2012/12/16/01002-20121216ARTFIG00138-ump-cope-pret-a-un-nouveau-vote-en-septembre-2013.php

[Californian Tony]

There will be a revote in September 2013.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2012/12/16/01002-20121216ARTFIG00138-ump-cope-pret-a-un-nouveau-vote-en-septembre-2013.php

In 9 months? Fillon must be an idiot to accept this.

Please, please, please tell me Copé didn't ultimately manage to screw him.

[RogueBeaver]

They're still negotiating over who leads the party for now... and I assume that the anger over what happened translates to a Fillon victory.

[Californian Tony]

They're still negotiating over who leads the party for now... and I assume that the anger over what happened translates to a Fillon victory.

Not sure, and I think he doesn't even want to run again. All he wants is making sure Copé doesn't get away with his dirty tricks. Hopefully some consensus candidate can defeat Copé in 2013, but by that time, the old bonapartist spirit of the French right will probably have prevailed...

[Hashemite]

They're still negotiating over who leads the party for now... and I assume that the anger over what happened translates to a Fillon victory.

Who wins probably depends on who controls the party machine by September. If Copé's stooges control the party and the COCOE/CONARE as they currently do, then I have as much faith in this being a fair election as I do in Chechnya having a fair election.

the old bonapartist spirit of the French right will probably have prevailed...

Somebody read my big post or something?!

[Californian Tony]

the old bonapartist spirit of the French right will probably have prevailed...

Somebody read my big post or something?!

I haven't actually. Been so damn busy these past few days, and now still mostly unable to do anything worthwhile due to sleep irregularities... Give me a few days to recover.