2012 Elections in Germany

[You kip if you want to...]

In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.

Lol if the SPD agrees to that then can there be any doubt that they will be drubbed massively in 2017? 

It'd be that or for them to stay in opposition and look like wreckers as Merkel tries to talk with the Greens and the Pirates and it goes without saying that there'll be no Black-Green-Pirate coalition.

Saying that, there's still hope that the SDP could finish first, or their could be some kind've SDP-Green majority, right?

[Sibboleth]

@Comrade Sibboleth: Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick is the constituency, Gregor Gysi won twice with much more personal votes than votes for the Left Party list. As long as Gysi stands there, it should be safe.

Oh, sure, sure. I was originally going to mention him. But it's not quite in the automatic category, at least in the event of their vote halving or whatever.

[Vasall des Midas]

Remember that the SPD held that constituency in 94, 98 and 02 as well.

[Tender Branson]

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll shows the SPD at the highest level in 2 years:

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

[ZuWo]

When will we see the FDP overtake Die Linke again?

[ModerateCoward]

When will we see the FDP overtake Die Linke again?

Hopefully never. I wonder when will more East Germans will vote for Linke.

[You kip if you want to...]

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll shows the SPD at the highest level in 2 years:

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Edging closer to a red-green majority as well.

[Peter the Lefty]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

[Tender Branson]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?

[Vasall des Midas]

That poll is actually a month old.

[Peter the Lefty]

That poll is actually a month old.

Oh.  The post was near the top if you check "Kraft Merkel" in Google news.  I just assumed it was new.  But I just checked it, and I guess you're right. 

[You kip if you want to...]

That poll is actually a month old.

Oh.  The post was near the top if you check "Kraft Merkel" in Google news.  I just assumed it was new.  But I just checked it, and I guess you're right. 

It's from June 15th according to Wikipedia

[RedPrometheus]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?

I would guess Ralf Jäger minister of the interior. He seems quite established.

[RedPrometheus]

There is a first projection for the constituencies in Lower Saxony.

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120617.html

Looking good!

[Peter the Lefty]

Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

[Old Europe]

Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

Support in principle, but needs some corrections.

A fairly standard post-Schröder SPD position.

[Peter the Lefty]

Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

Support in principle, but needs some corrections.

A fairly standard post-Schröder SPD position.

What kind of corrections?  And what does "in principle" mean?  Is it that she thinks that the bulk of the "reforms" were good, or more of a general "we support fiscal responsibility, but this was the wrong way to go about it" type of thing?  
Willy Brandt would be horrified to see what has become of the SPD.  

[Tender Branson]

Merkel approval rating climbs to 66%:

The chancellor remains Germany’s most popular politician, with 66 percent saying said she is doing a good job, eight percentage points more than in June and the most since December 2009, according to the monthly Infratest Dimap poll released late yesterday. A record 85 percent said the worst of the turmoil lies ahead, ARD said in an e-mailed statement.

Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere, who was Merkel’s chief of staff during her first term between 2005 and 2009, had the second-highest approval rating. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Merkel’s Social Democratic challenger in the 2009 election, tied Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble for third place with 61 percent.

Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc would win the largest share of the vote, 35 percent, compared with 30 percent for the Social Democrats, if elections were held now, according to the poll. With 4 percent support for Merkel’s Free Democratic Party ally and 14 percent for the Greens, which were part of a Social Democrat-led government from 1998 to 2005, the poll indicates that neither combination would have a majority in parliament.

The July 2-4 poll of 1,004 people had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-06/merkel-approval-rises-to-highest-since-2009-in-post-summit-poll

[a Person]

http://newsticker.sueddeutsche.de/list/id/1335970

So the SPD is ahead of the CDU in terms of membership again...

[Vasall des Midas]

In case someone still cares about the BaWü elections of 2011... the American legal tradition equivalent of the newest development would probably be "Stefan Mappus indicted" for his role in the EnBW purchase.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Niedersachsen poll (YouGov/Bild):

35% SPD
31% CDU
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

49-43 majority for SPD/Greens.

http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/rot-gruen-liegt-in-niedersachsen-klar-vorn-1.2915029

[RedPrometheus]

A new projection for the seats in Lower Saxony:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120719.html

[Vasall des Midas]

So, as expected by all who can and did read (read the 2008 court verdict and the new election law, that is), a number which does not include many government politicians or any political journalists, Angela Merkel's election law is even more unconstitutional than the old one.

The court did its utmost to save her face - it did not octroy a new election law of its own making (though it said it would do so if there's no new law by spring 03) and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.

[Yeahsayyeah]

and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.

Well, as of now, where "internal" Überhangmandate are possible, there is negative vote weight. Of course the mode of seat allocation could be changed to fix seat contingents per federal state (as in Spain or Finland for example). But this would not be a voting system not proportional as a whole, as the Constitutional Court demanded.

And if half of the seats should be given to the winners of single seat constituencies, as is the case since 1949, there would not be any possibility of compensation for the Überhangmandate. But the court demanded that 15 is the constitutional limit.

And there would be one argument less for the five percent threshold.

So maybe this easiest way to get rid of the negative vote weight, is not possible by constitutional restrictions and political opportunity.

[jimrtex]

So, as expected by all who can and did read (read the 2008 court verdict and the new election law, that is), a number which does not include many government politicians or any political journalists, Angela Merkel's election law is even more unconstitutional than the old one.

The court did its utmost to save her face - it did not octroy a new election law of its own making (though it said it would do so if there's no new law by spring 03) and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.

octroy