2012 Elections in Germany

[I left.]

I'm for Gauck.

I understand Merkel's political reasons for not wanting him - but most voters wanted him then, and still want him now. I don't think it'd be all that harmful for her really to come out and more or less admit that she made a mistake last time.

[Vasall des Midas]

Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

It's more the fear that journalists would view/spin such a choice as a signal in a Black-Green direction. It's fairly meta.

[Old Europe]

FDP is supporting Gauck now, as do SPD and Greens.

CDU is still against it although they really don't have an argument why (except that he was nominated by the SPD in 2010 but they can't say that aloud).

Come on Merkel, please f**k it up again. Somehow you'll always find some third-rate guy instead of Gauck.

[Old Europe]

Klaus Töpfer was now declared second preference by the SPD.

CDU: against Gauck, for Töpfer
FDP: for Gauck, against Töpfer
SPD: for Gauck, or maybe Töfper

Hilarious. Looks like a Mexican standoff to me.

[Vasall des Midas]

Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?

[Vasall des Midas]

I just abused google to see if I could find a German called "Klaus-Joachim Göpfer" or "Klaus-Joachim Gaupfer" who might be willing to step in... but the closest google got me was Frankfurter Rundschau local reporter Claus-Jürgen Göpfert.

[Old Europe]

Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?

Töpfer as the lesser evil obviously (from their point of view anyway).

[Old Europe]

Pity that the scheduled CDU-FDP-SPD-Green talks will happen behind closed doors this evening.


Rösler (FDP): We want Gauck!

Merkel (CDU): We want Töpfer!

Rösler (FDP): No way!

Merkel (CDU): You're free to leave my government if you don’t like it.

Brüderle (FDP): *mumbles* Go f**k yourself.

Steinmeier (SPD): Guys, it's not a contest.

Özdemir (Greens): Yeah, we need to be a bit more constructive here.

Trittin (Greens): Well, If you ask me I find it highly entertaining.

Pofalla (CDU): Shut the f**k up, Trittin!

[Old Europe]

As of this evening, a breakup of the coalition and early Bundestag elections is at least an option which is on the table. In any case, Merkel will probably use it as a threat to discipline the FDP.

If they don't back down, it's what could happen. Naturally, SPD and Greens will do everything in their power that the FDP doesn't back down. What could save the coalition is the fact that FDP chairman Philipp Rösler is a coward who won't have the balls to go through with it... maybe.

[I left.]

The coalition isn't breaking up. As you say - the FDP is scared to death of that option, with good reason.

Merkel certainly has nothing to fear. I think she'd rather lead a new grand coalition anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

[I left.]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

Precisely - no matter what happens, Merkel is very likely to remain chancellor. And considering she probably likes the SPD better than the FDP anyway, what does she have to lose?

For the FDP, however, ending this government means losing all representation in parliament.

[Californian Tony]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!!

[I left.]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!!

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government?

[Old Europe]

The coalition isn't breaking up. As you say - the FDP is scared to death of that option, with good reason.

Merkel certainly has nothing to fear. I think she'd rather lead a new grand coalition anyway.

Yeah, in that case it will be quite a humiliation for the FDP because it means that they have to repeal their own presidium's unanimous vote in favour of Gauck from earlier today. Which also means Merkel could simply ignore the FDP and do anything she wants in future intra-coalition conflicts.

If the FDP doesn't back down it could be over for the party... that is as a party which is represented in the Bundestag.

In any case, the FDP will lose big today. The question is what Rösler considers the lesser evil.

[Tender Branson]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!!

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government?

Red-Green is very, very unlikely today.

CDU/Left/Pirates have close to 50% (36+7+7), while SPD/Greens have only about 40-45%.

If there are new elections, there would be almost for sure a GROKO.

[I left.]

It would be a blessing for this country to have the grand coalition back. May the FDP rot in hell and may Merkel restore competent government with a non-joke partner.

(There. I said it.)

[Old Europe]

focus.de now reports that Joachim Gauck is going to become president. No other site seems to report it yet.

Surprising... if true it means that Philipp Rösler has finally become a man today.

[Old Europe]

ZDF reports it now too.

Merkel surrenders? WTF?

[Tender Branson]

Here is the estimated party strength of the next Bundesversammlung, which will elect the next President:



There are a total of 1240 electoral voters.

Majority is 621.

CDU/CSU/FDP = 623-626
SPD/Greens/Left/Others = 614-617

The final number for each party is not yet clear, because they have to draw some lots.

[I left.]

As said previously. Gauck is certainly the most suitable president.

[Californian Tony]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!!

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government?

Anything will be better than the current black-yellow government. And the perspective to get rid of the FDP definitively is pretty appealing.

[Vasall des Midas]

You can stop arguing, there's white smoke over the palace.

[Old Europe]

Well, that was a close one. Apparently, some in the CDU are pretty pissed at the FDP now. There's some talk of "getting back at them" at the earliest opportunity.

[Senator Kalwejt]

Guess we need a new thread.