2012 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Rhein seems to win the 1st round with 39%.

[Senator MaxQue]

Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?

[Tender Branson]

Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?

No, Klaus Main.

[Vasall des Midas]

Nein zu Rhein - Rhein rhaus!

[Vasall des Midas]

Rhein (CDU) 39.1
Feldmann (SPD) 33.0
Heilig (Greens) 14.0
Fechter (FAG) 4.0
Wißler (Left) 3.8
Förster (Pirate) 3.8
Schmitt (PARTEI) 1.8
Tatchoup (i) 0.2
Frenzel (i) 0.2
Schulte (i) 0.1
Turnout: Abysmal. (37.5%, which probably means that the number of day voters was virtually unchanged on 2007.)

Not a done deal, but my money's very much on Feldmann for the runoff.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.wahlen.frankfurt.de/

Some odd patterns here. Along with some known or guessable patterns, of course.

[Vasall des Midas]

Despite that could-be-worse result, Heilig didn't win a single precinct.

Fairly strong gap between absentee and day result:

Day Rhein 37.1, Feldmann 34.2
Absentee Rhein 45.9, Feldmann 25.8
These percentages are of votes cast, not valid votes - not going to sum all candidates across all absentee precincts to find out the valid vote total breakdown.
Put another way, absentees were 18.3% of all votes, cast, 21.7% of Rhein's and 14.4% of Feldmann's.
Put yet another way, 61% of Rhein's margin of victory was accrued before polling day.
But I guess that happens when there's only one rightwing candidate.

[Vasall des Midas]

And the Green infighting now is funny, though all the quoted people's opinions are utterly predictable:

Cunitz, Sorge - pro Rhein
Heilig, Nouripour - anti any endorsement (read: will be voting for Feldmann but can't say that out loud given the coalition. Certainly in Heilig's case.)
Cohn-Bendit - pro Feldmann

[Sibboleth]

There shall be a map... I think by this evening? Maybe?

[Senator MaxQue]

Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?

[Vasall des Midas]

Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?

Cohn-Bendit is a Frankfurt icon and a Frankfurt Green older statesman / grey eminence / senile old man muttering in the background.
He's also French, of course.

[Sibboleth]

The general patterns are what they are and so on. But... um... certain details?

[Senator MaxQue]

So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?

[I left.]

So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?

Not really. But it's the part of the city that airplanes regularly fly over.

[Vasall des Midas]

So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?

The airport is that odd southwest corner.

The personal votes for Feldmann (Bonames, probably some influence on the Frankfurter Berg as well) and Rhein (Nieder-Eschbach, not quite as pronounced) are funny. Petra Roth did always have some such bonus in Nieder-Erlenbach as well, but none of the last SPD candidates did.
Feldmann did much better than the SPD usually does in the Green stronghold areas, of course, but that's to be expected in a persons vote. Though it also happened in the Ypsilanti election of 2008; a lot of the seeming core Green vote is explicitly Red-Green in practice. And indeed, there seems to be a bit of an income pattern to Feldmann's success among Green voters (again, as also in 2008).
Turnout in certain effed areas was atrocious; sometimes even worse than in 2007. This has a turnout-differential effect, most visibly in the Gutleut, where the new yuppie developments in Westhafen outvoted the much larger remainder of the Stadtteil; their turnout was high. Feldmann won the remainder of it.
Fechter took the same kind of share citywide as the FAG took in the 2001 and 2006 council elections, but the pattern was even more pronounced than usual. She took 7 points more than back then in Sachsenhausen S and Niederrad, even less north of the river.
The Schmitt, Förster and Wißler maps are the expected mix of macro-Green/Old PDS and Random/Protest, but what's odd is that while Schmitt's distribution is the most "Green", Förster's, not Wißler's, is the most Protest-party-like (I even ran a correlation calculation on this thing. There's next to no correlation between Heilig and Förster, but both correlate with Wißler and Schmitt. Wißler's map is also a fairly good negative of Rhein's - the strongest negative correlation in there).
Oh, and turnout turnout turnout. High in the suburbs and the Green Bobo areas. Feldmann's map looks like a reasonablish class map, unless you start looking at his share of registered voters rather than vote cast. Then... uh.

[Old Europe]

Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.

[Vasall des Midas]

Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.

Wow. FDP and Left both intending to vote for an Early Christmas? How silly can it get?

[Vasall des Midas]

Top map is simple over/under average contrast for share of the vote (Westend S and Old Town are right on average for the Greens, actually).
Bottom map is the same... for share of the electorate.

Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently the NRW-FDP folks decided to book a trip to Guyana and drink some kool aid.

2012 is a good year so far.

[I left.]

The FDP , Linke , (and CDU to a lesser extent) are insane.

[RedPrometheus]

Great day! Especially for NRW!

Latest Poll shows:

SPD: 35%
CDU: 35%
Greens: 17%
FDP: 2%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 5%
Others: 3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

I heard from an acquaintance from the political scene that the date for the elections is probably the 13th of May.

[Old Europe]

I already heard the half-serious joke that the NRW-FDP probably wants to get rid of Philipp Rösler as federal chairman. Hence their current suicide mission in the NRW state parliament.

[Old Europe]

YouGov poll for NRW, apparently released today (?)

SPD 33%
CDU 33%
Greens 17%
Pirates 7%
Left 5%
FDP 2%

Majority for SPD/Greens

[Old Europe]

Pretty tight schedule this year...

March 18: Presidential election (Federal convention)
March 25: Saarland state election
May 6: Schleswig-Holstein state election
May 13: Northrhine-Westphalia state election

[Sibboleth]

Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.

Stable working class areas, those RedGreen swingers and suburbs full of ex-working class people Who Have Done Well For Themselves?