Canadian by-elections, 2012

[DL]

I think Coderre should resign his federal seat and run in the provincial byelection in Bourassa-Sauve. That way he can try to succeed Charest at PLQ leader and then the NDP can easily scopp up the federal Bourassa seat in a byelection!

[RogueBeaver]

Not happening. If Charest calls a fall election there won't be a by-election anyways.

[DL]

In that case Coderre can run in the riding in the provincial general election. its a win-win for him. If Charest wins, he gets into cabinet for sure and if Charest loses he would be a top contender for the PLQ leadership (who else is there). Let's face it the federal Lioberals are moribund and Coderre must be think of an exit strategy from the sinking ship.

[RogueBeaver]

Why would anyone want Coderre anyways?

On Bourassa-Sauve: Easy PLQ hold.

[canadian1]

Coderre's riding doesn't overlap Tomassi's; it includes all of Beauchamp's and some of Lisette Lapointe's (Cremazie).

I have my doubts that the NDP could "easily" win Bourassa federally. I think that the LPC would probably have something of a leg up on the Dippers when in comes to candidate recruitment--much longer-established party organization in that part of town (plus I'm not convinced Coderre's style has been an asset to his party; a new candidate might prove more popular). On the other hand, there's no reason why the NDP couldn't find itself a high-quality candidate given the current political environment under Mulcair, and they have to be considered the overall favourites. But I don't think it will happen. I think Coderre will likely stay put for the time being, and if he bolts, I'm not sure it will be to provincial politics.

[Senator MaxQue]

Yes, there is an over lap, between the hospital and Fernard-Gauthier.
I have family in that overlap.

And Coderre is very popular in his area, from what my relatives being there are saying.

[Hatman]

Resignation of Tory MLA Margaret-Ann Blaney in Rothesay, NB today. Riding has been Tory since 1999.

[Senator MaxQue]

For people not reading the Canadian International Board, there will perhaps be a by-election in Etobicoke-Center (federal), after the Superior Court voided the election for irregularities.

The Conservative MP can still appeal it to the Supreme Court, so, it's not sure yet.

[Holmes]

It would be an interesting by-election, I believe. I don't think the Conservatives have much of a chance, but neither do the NDP. Still.

[Hatman]

Safe Liberal seat, really. Not good news for the NDP.

[Holmes]

Why?

[Hatman]

Why?

A Liberal victory could be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals, especially in the all important 416 area. Etobicoke Centre doesn't have the right demographics to go NDP. Both Etobicoke Centre ridings avoided going NDP in the 1990 provincial wave.

[Sibboleth]

It's only a by-election. Get your defensive arguments in early. Then no worries.

[RogueBeaver]

This would be a personal victory IMO. Another side effect would be BW using it as a platform to (in vain, obviously) challenge Rae for the leadership given that he's an oft-mentioned candidate.

[adma]

Why?

A Liberal victory could be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals, especially in the all important 416 area. Etobicoke Centre doesn't have the right demographics to go NDP. Both Etobicoke Centre ridings avoided going NDP in the 1990 provincial wave.

Yeah, but it'd more likely be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals at the expense of the Cons, not at the expense of the NDP.

What the NDP is really seeking here is a "barometer result", not victory per se--though yeah, you'll find those who mouth words about coming through in a three-way.  (At best, I suspect the NDP could "unexpectedly" ascend into the mid-20s a la Don Valley East--and even that isn't necessarily a barrier to Liberal victory, no matter what the strategic-voting advocates tell you.)

[Holmes]

Yes, a Liberal victory in Etobicoke Center will breathe new life into the Liberal Party of Canada, giving them new hope and momentum to win all other ridings that are similar in demographics. Because those are the ridings that party sure needs to win to regain relevance.

[RogueBeaver]

The Grits would have lost OO even if they hadn't lost a single seat last year. They only get OO back if the BQ comes back and make major inroads in GTA + BC.

[Smid]

Perhaps the NDP could propose a coalition again, and say that they won't contest Etobicoke Centre if the Libs agree and also agree to no three-cornered contests in seats held by the other party. It would probably cause division in the Liberal ranks, and if the Libs disagree, the NDP could use it as a "we tried to present a united front against the government, but the Liberals weren't interested" and if the Grits agree, the NDP then has an agreement that they won't be challenged by the Liberals in their seats, including their newly-won seats like York SW, and they would have a valid excuse to not contest Etobicoke Centre, and not have to worry about a third place finish there denting their momentum. I think the Liberals would be foolish to accept the deal, but I think the NDP could get mileage out of a rejection.

[RogueBeaver]

That's exactly what Nathan Cullen proposed during the NDP leadership race. No one in either party wants to touch it with a barge pole. Mulcair was the most adamant in denouncing such an idea.

[adma]

I suspect it's redundant in the end.  After all, polling indicates that the Grits/Borys already has a ten-point advantage, even with the NDP holding its 2011 share...

[Hatman]

You should post a link when you mention a poll...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/22/liberal-challenger-ahead-in-toronto-riding-where-judge-ordered-byelection-poll/

Borys: 47
Opitz: 37
NDP: 14

[DL]

The Liberals should win Etobicoke Centre. Its one of maybe 20 ridings in all of Canada that would be classic Tory/Lib Dem marginals if they were in the UK - in other words they have high concentrations of people who are too smart to vote Conservative and also too rich to vote NDP. The probable future for Canada's Liberals is to be a boutique party wealthy professionals and they will have their niche of 20 or so seats (ie: ridings like St. Paul's, Don Valley West, Etobicoke Centre, Westmount, Ottawa South, Lac St. Louis, North vancouver, West Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra etc...)

[RogueBeaver]

With a handful of exceptions, most of their current MPs won on personal votes. Bob Rae had a 10-point swing, Brison and LeBlanc also had serious swings against them. BW is winning on a personal vote and he knows it.

No, unfortunately I think any Liberal recovery would be like their UK counterparts' faux recovery in 1929. They can get a few points and some seats back but the foundation has been dynamited by Harper and Layton. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Borys winning on a personal vote? I'd argue to the contrary: the Tories' position has clearly eroded in their middle to high income urban seats (it was never very strong to begin with, if the NDP surge didn't happen to the extent that it did this would be a comfortable Grit seat) and because of the inherent NDP weakness among this demographic, it's natural that these voters would flock back to their natural Liberal home. There's probably a decent amount of strategic voting from potential NDP supporters going on as well.

I predict that the NDP's support will sink to the single digits and the Liberals will win by a 15 to 20 point margin.

[DL]

I agree, but I don't think the Liberals will ever completely vanish - they will rattle along like the British Liberals as a distant third party punished heavily by the FPTP system and reduced to 20-30 seats that will be combination of idiosyncratic seats that happen to have a personally popular Liberal MP and about 10-15 seats across the country that will be the "Liberal base" in that they are larded with rich professionals - and that's it. The Canadian Liberals like their British counterpart will go to bed every night praying that there will be an election that is so close between the two big parties - NDP and CPC that they have the balance of power and can be tossed a few scraps from the adult table.