Canadian by-elections, 2012

[lilTommy]

and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?

[Senator MaxQue]

So, they failed to find a star candidate?

[lilTommy]

to me a "star" candidate is someone with:
- broadbased name recognition;
- previous elected experience;
- has a built in semi or quasi cult appeal

so no, the liberals have not nominated a star candidate...

[Hatman]

and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?

Yeah, it was lower than the NDP turnout, but only 100 or so lower.

[DL]

But... nanos seems to be the outlier for Ontario:

Abacus (jan 16-19) - 25%
Angus-Reid (jan 20-21) - 24%
Harris-decima (jan 12-22) - 26%
all around the same timeframa as the Nanos poll, so the numbers were seeing are not much lower then the 29% from May11

Actually the NDP got 26% in Ontario on May 2/11

[lilTommy]

Thanks DL... so i have no idea where i got 29% just being hopeful i suppose

So the NDP isn't polling any change since May, and with that it looks good...
Chow is also pullin out all the stops in order to help Craig:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1129989--ndp-mp-olivia-chow-fights-for-her-husband-s-ndp-successor-in-danforth-riding

I think the party is very VERY commited to have a Winnipeg North repeat; without a "star" candidate for the Liberals i don't see that happening, but i've had two calls to help out Craig.

[RogueBeaver]

Why am I not surprised?

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/02/13/former-tordan-liberal-candidate-says-he-stepped-aside-for-no-show-star/

[Hatman]

lol...

[RogueBeaver]

Media kept throwing Miller (a Dipper) and Kennedy around, dunno who else it might have been. Maybe one of Dad's crew?

[Holmes]

Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1

[lilTommy]

Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1

If that holds... and i hope it does (i'm always cautious not to get over confident with polls) thats just slightly more than Jack got!
Jack Layton - 60.8
Andrew Lang - 17.62
Katarina Von Koenig - 14.32
Adriana MH - 6.46

NDP up; Tories no change; Liberals down... DOWN! more then 2011, #fail. if the Liberals do this bad when Rae is the darling of the media, they are dooned in TO as far as i can see... whate they have left will be gobbled up between the NDP and Tories

[Sibboleth]

Looks good, but the usual rules about constituency polling, polling in by-elections...

[RogueBeaver]

The Liberals never had a chance of winning this riding, but are otherwise polling just fine in Ontario. Though I do wonder who their mystery candidate, if they actually exist, was.

[DL]

If there ever was a Liberal "star candidate" waiting in the wings, I suspect that they did a poll of their own, saw that they would get slaughtered and and decided not to be a sacrificial lamb to Bob rae's latest vanity project.

[RogueBeaver]

The people mentioned were Miller (a Dipper last I checked) and Kennedy. Neither of whom are particularly inclined to kamikaze missions.

[Hashemite]

I'm certainly getting very excited over constituency polling for a by-election.

[Hatman]

Good news, but I would be surprised if we broke 60%.

[lilTommy]

Agreed, i think it might be a tad too optimistic, fantastic if thats the outcome esp going into the leadership race. but i think were more in for a 48-52% range.

https://twitter.com/#!/GrantGordonLib/status/169984731067318272

Grant and the Grits trying to be funny eh; sounds a lil'desperate to me and so much for "were listening, were changing..."

[Holmes]

Who's the Liberal candidate again?

[RogueBeaver]

It used to be Rae's riding eons ago, so not totally off the wall. How popular is Rae in TO proper these days?

[lilTommy]

78-81... three years, a blip really in politics before he bolted to ONDP leader. But yes over 30yrs ago he was the MP

[Senator MaxQue]

Being an old MP form the 80's isn't being an asset, I suppose.

[RogueBeaver]

Apart from Danforth, the only other possibility barring death or resignation is if Topp somehow wins the leadership and a poteau resigns to make way.

[Senator MaxQue]

Four candidates filled their papers now. NDP, Green and two indies.

Leslie Bory, from Boston, in Norfolk County (west of Niagara), who ran in the 2010 by-election in Vaughan (whch Fantino won) getting .28% and in Brant in 2011 (.3%). He is running agaist free trade, for tarrifs, for a Republic, against participating in "US wars", to reduce pesticides, herbicides and to ban factory farming.

Bahman Yazdanfar: Well, let's see his website: http://www.votersecho.com/

[Hatman]

Bump

TorDan by-election is tomorrow.

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/toronto-danforth-by-election-guide.html
(shameless plug).