Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Why our Grit friends kept talking up their chances is beyond me- first the star candidate rumour, then Rae's face being more prominent than the candidate's, finally a Trudeau visit on Gordon's behalf.

[Hatman]

My predictions are going to be off a bit, I must admit I've been ignoring this race for the last few weeks. But yeah, one thing I know is that the NDP will win it.

[Smid]

Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!

[Hatman]

Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!

Thanks. I wish I had more time these past few weeks, I had plans to make many more maps. Oh well.

[lilTommy]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

[Holmes]

I'm so excited, it's been almost half a year, but finally another Canadian election. And with the leadership convention this weekend, the end of March seems to be great for Canadian politics. Here's my prediction:

Scott - 58%
Gordon - 22%
Keyes - 14%
Mugnatto-Hamu - 4%

[Hatman]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

[Smid]

First poll's in:

NDP 49
Lib 26
Con 2
Grn 2

Total 79

[Senator MaxQue]

One can see why Tories weren't quick to call the election. Being tied with Greens isn't good.

So, 17/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 1162 votes (58.7%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 573 votes (29.0%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 102 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 94 votes (4.8%)

[Meeker]

Yikes. Awful numbers for the Conservatives. Could be a byproduct of strategic voting though.

[Senator MaxQue]

So, 55/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 4095 votes (58.5%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 2067 votes (29.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 394 votes (5.3%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 317 votes (4.5%)

[Senator MaxQue]

So, 82/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 6313 votes (57.9%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 3256 votes (29.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 568 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 531 votes (4.9%)

[Senator MaxQue]

So, 115/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 9178 votes (59.2%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 4480 votes (28.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 803 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 744 votes (4.8%)

[Senator MaxQue]

So, 162/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 15470 votes (59.8%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 7379 votes (28.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 1328 votes (5.1%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 1217 votes (4.7%)

[Hatman]

175 polls in

Scott down to 59.6%

Excellent result. Not quite as good as Jack, but not far off. Who would expect a better result?

[Hatman]

180 polls in and Scott is down to 59.5. Gordon at 28.6%

Both are doing better than I had expected. However, if I actually payed attention to this race, I would've known the Tories wouldn't fare well. Obviously they stayed home or voted Liberal.

[Hatman]

All the polls reporting now

Craig Scott (NDP): 59.4% (-1.4%)
Grant Gordon (Lib) 28.5% (+10.9%)
Andrew Keyes (Cons) 5.4% (-8.9%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (Grn) 4.7% (-1.7%)
Others: 1.9% (+1.1%)

Turnout: 43.4% (not bad for a by-election, especially one that was a foregone conclusion)

[Smid]

Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.

[Hatman]

In terms of raw numbers, the Liberals actually got more votes than last time, so obviously some Conservatives switched their votes, and a few New Democrats (well, most likely Liberals who had voted for Layton just that one time). The Tories went down by 7000 votes, and the Liberals increased by almost 1000. 16000 less people voted.

[Sibboleth]

Solid result for the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.

Its pretty easy to see that the Liberals benefited the most from the tories, who oddly enough ran a campaign compared to 11 when they were no where (meaning they were actually dropping literature and doing a pretty sparse but active door campaign) This is an urban riding; the robocall, the huge crime bill all played against the tories.
I was actuall quite surprised to see that the % was rather on par with jack, i had thought there was more of a personal vote for jack (but much of that vote might have stayed home too) 43% turnout is pretty fantastic seeing its a by-election and hearing there was some heavy voter fatigue with all the heavy NDP & Lib campaigns.

Two vicotires here: NDP - held most of jacks vote and won; Liberals - gained about 10pts so they will see this as a signifigant rebound.

I suspect the map to be closer to the 2008 picture; probably some of the wealthier north riverdale and North end around the Don river to have gone back to the liberals.

[lilTommy]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?

[Hatman]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?

He wasn't that well known, so he wasn't strong in that aspect. But he would have been a great MP. He had a funny name (Anil Naidoo), but then again so did the incumbent. Perhaps Dalton had home town advantage. I dont know. There was a lot of head scratching after the election for me.

[lilTommy]

if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out jk

[Holmes]

I kind of wish this by-election were somewhere other than downtown Toronto, only to see how the Tories would have fared. I don't think much can be extrapolated from their showing in a riding such as Toronto-Danforth. Buuut, going from 14% to 5% is pretty pathetic. Their ridings in the city would probably be gone if there were an election now.