Canadian by-elections, 2012

[trebor204]

Tory Backbencher Lee Richardson (Calgary - Centre) is resigning his seat to work with Premier Alison Redford


http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/national/Tory%20backbench%20MP%20Lee%20Richardson%20quitting%20to%20work%20for%20Alberta%20premier/6702779/story.html

[Hatman]

Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.

[adma]

Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.

Actually, it's more of a draw w/Calgary Centre-North on that "inner urban" front (and Calgary North East has, for various mostly-ethnicized reasons, proven even more of a left-of-Tory stronghold lately).  And btw/CC  and CCN, CC has more of a "Liberal" history, and CCN more of an "NDP" history.

Yeah, the NDP have reason to try; but don't be surprised if the Liberals try to pull a few "Nenshi progressives" and "Swann Nation" provincial Grits as well...

[Peter the Lefty]

Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.

Besides Edmonton Strathcona.  It would really be something if the NDP managed to win it.  Don't wanna get my hopes up though.  The most recent polls I've seen seem to show the NDP's growth being rather stagnant in Alberta, at about the same as it was last May.  Plus, given the way Redford, Wall, and Clark (and especially the media) are going absolutely berserk over tarsands oilsands rhetoric right now, I wouldn't count on a breakthrough in Alberta at this point.

[mileslunn]

It may not be a solidy Tory as other Calgary ridings, but I think it would be a huge shocker if the Tories didn't hold this.  I think the real issue is can they stay above 50% as if they fall below 50% there that could suggest problems.  And as others mentioned the Liberals have a much better chance than the NDP, although I would say the odds of either winning are pretty close to zero.  While this includes Calgary-Buffalo which is more left leaning it also includes most of Calgary-Elbow which is Ralph Klein's former riding so the southern parts tend to go pretty heavily conservative like much of the rest of the city.  If anything, the best line of attack would be more the Tories don't welcome Red Tories as Lee Richardson was one of the few Red Tories much like Alison Redford who he is planning on working with.  I have also found Calgary to be very pro-business and many rightly or wrongly (depending on where you stand on the political spectrum) believe socialist parties lead to more stagnant growth.  Many remember the 90s when large numbers from British Columbia and further back when large numbers from Saskatchewan were moving there thus why I think the NDP frightens people so much here.

[Holmes]

Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

[RogueBeaver]

Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

She's safe and quite popular in her riding despite facing a competent, well-liked candidate last year. Having seen her interviewed a few times I've liked her since '08- well, except that she keeps an orange speck in our blue sea.

[Hatman]

Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

Don't worry about her. There's gotta be some place in the province for the left wing people to go. Edmonton-Strathona isn't like the rest of Alberta at all (well, parts of it).

[Holmes]

Well, okay. Still not expecting a result lower than 50% for the Tories.

[Hatman]

Well, okay. Still not expecting a result lower than 50% for the Tories.

True. But, a really right wing Tory candidate (like Ezra Levant) might turn off enough red Tories to bring them under 50%.

[RogueBeaver]

What makes you think Levant's running? Last time didn't work out so well for him.

[Hatman]

What makes you think Levant's running? Last time didn't work out so well for him.

The folks on rabble are suggesting he might run. I dont think he will, but I thought I would use him as an example.

[DL]

Its worth noting that historically the NDP has been in single digits in Calgary Centre, but in 2011 the candidate dropped out after the writ was dropped and the NDP had to parachute in a "name on the ballot" from Edmonton who did not campaign and did not respond to the media and did not go to any all-candidates meetings. The NDP still doubled its vote to 15% and was only 2% behind the second place Liberals who ran an active campaign. The Green party actually got 16% in C-Centre in 2008 and then that evaporated to single digits last year.

I think that there is almost no way that the Tories can lose in Calgary Centre, BUT the NDP could still run a very credible candidate, spend the maximum and try to come in a solid second. It would be a good way of making a statement that the NDP under Mulcair is NOT writing off Alberta and is willing to take the fight right into the heart of Harper country!

[adma]

Its worth noting that historically the NDP has been in single digits in Calgary Centre,

I don't know what you mean about "historically"; from what I can tell, aside from the AudreyAlexa downtime, the NDP seem to been in double digits (if not *too* far in) at least as often as it hasn't.  (And remember that this is Calgary, where *any* party that isn't Conservative is lucky to crack 20%.)

[Hatman]

Interestingly, while the Liberals finished 2nd, they didn't win any polls. It was the NDP that won a couple of polls in 2011.

[Peter the Lefty]

Oh wait...Calgary Centre.  Sorry, I've been sleep deprived lately must have misread it and I guess I though this was Edmonton Centre you guys were talking about (which actually is the second-most left-wing riding in Alberta after Strathcona, followed by Edmonton East).  Nvm.  Tory shoe-in.  It'd be a waste of resources for the NDP to try and win this, unless they think that this could be the next Outremont '07 and that two federal elections from now, Alberta will become an NDP stronghold (which won't happen.)

[adma]

It's probably more Mulcair's warpath against the tarsands that renders the NDP uncommonly doomed here, than the simple historical fact that it's Calgary...

[mileslunn]

I think the real problem here is in Eastern Canada attacking Alberta oil sands and its wealth is effective at least amongst those who lean left, thus that is why parties on the left consistently perform poorly in Alberta as attacking it may cost them a seat or two but could result in a whole whack of seats in Eastern Canada.  Unfortunately no party seems to believe in the idea of promoting prosperity in every province and hurting one province hurts everyone.  I think unlike other countries Canada's population is mostly spread out along a 5,000 mile narrow strip near the US border so regional divisions are more noticeable than in other countries that are smaller or have higher population densities.  That being said, I think Edmonton East is probably the NDP's best chance at picking up in Alberta.  Although Edmonton Centre is far from a Tory stronghold, they have a lot of yuppies who are wealthy yet progressive thus why they go Liberal and getting them to switch will be tough.  This group is strong in St. Paul's, Vancouver Centre, and Toronto Centre thus why those ridings stayed Liberal. 

[Hatman]

If Albertans want to sacrifice the environment for "prosperity", then there is no reason for the NDP to try to appease to them.

[Holmes]

Well, you know, except it affects many other Canadians, and not just Canadians either, especially since they wanna run pipelines all over the damn place. But we can't criticize Alberta. Ever. It's sacrilege.

[mileslunn]

I think if the NDP talked about trying to use the wealth generated from oil for other opportunities in the future, that might work a bit better in Alberta, after all the strong economy based on oil cannot last indefinitely, so there is a good reason to try and build up other areas.  I think what people resent in Alberta is transferring their money to other parts of the country as a re-distribution scheme to punish the wealthy provinces and give to the poorer ones.  Many rightly or wrongly argue Alberta is prosperous due to its pro free market policies and they shouldn't have to pay for provinces that take a more socialist approach.

I also as a general rule think it is best to try and win at least one seat in every province even though I agree Alberta will be a weak spot for the NDP much the way Quebec is for the Tories.  I should note in the last 30 years, most governments won at least one seat in all or nearly all provinces.  The only times they didn't were (1988 in PEI, 1997 in Nova Scotia, 2006 in PEI, and 2008 in Newfoundland & Labrador).  PEI is a relatively small province and the votes evenly distributed so that is probably the least concern for a winning party while 1997 was due to poor distribution as the Liberals got almost as many votes as the NDP and PCs did but were evenly spread out, not concentrated like the PCs in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and NDP in Halifax and Cape Breton Island.  In 2008, that was a backlash over the equalization changes when Danny Williams ran his ABC campaign.

[adma]

I also as a general rule think it is best to try and win at least one seat in every province even though I agree Alberta will be a weak spot for the NDP much the way Quebec is for the Tories. 

Then again, the NDP already has its one seat in Alberta...

[Hatman]

If the NDP were to get government, it would involve winning seats in every province. I think at that point, Charlottetown would go NDP.

[Hatman]

BTW, NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will be running in Rothesay. Not something I would've recommended.

[DL]

BTW, NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will be running in Rothesay. Not something I would've recommended.

What's he got to lose. The NDP has no seats. Rothesay is a suburban Saint John seat where the federal NDP took 30% of the vote last May. Provincially its a super-safe seat so no one expects Cardy to win, least of all the NDP, but in the meantime, he can easily double or triple the vote share the NDP had in the 2010 election, get some media profile and quite possibly come in second. I don't think Cardy is in it to win - he just wants to raise his profile and get some publicity. He only really loses if he fails to increase the NDP vote at all from 2010 - which is extremely unlikely.