Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman]

I was looking at the federal results in Rothesay, and the NDP actually did quite well in the area. They only won one poll, but probably got around 30% of the vote in the area. I don't think "tripling" the vote will be enough for a credible performance here. Cardy probably wont win, but he needs to aim for at least in the 30s, which I dont think is unreasonable.

[Hatman]

A special treat I've been working on:

[mileslunn]

A special treat I've been working on:

Probably explains why the Liberals came in second but didn't win any polls unlike the NDP.  The NDP is strongest near the city centre which is the least conservative part of the riding, otherwise the area in Calgary-Buffalo whereas the areas the Liberals came in second tend to be the more conservative parts of the riding anyways.  If Joe Clark's old riding boundaries were used for Calgary Centre the Tories might only get a plurality as the Bow River straddled the centre, not the edge so it encompassed the whole central area not just the southern half (otherwise both Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview).

[Hatman]

Yes, the Alliance won a plurality in 2000 with present borders:

Canadian Alliance: 44.9%
Progressive Conservative: 36.0%
Liberal: 13.2%
New Democratic Party: 3.4%

The 2000 map is quite interesting, I'll have to make another map. The Alliance was actually quite strong in downtown Calgary, but not that strong in the wealthy Mt Royal area.

[Hatman]

Didn't take that long to make:

[Hatman]

New post on the by-elections today: New post on the Quebec by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html

[Senator MaxQue]

LaFontaine is a clear Liberal win, but, quite underwhelming (they are now at 53%, which is quite weak for them there).

Argenteuil is very tight, PQ and Liberals are in a close race since earlier and both led at some point.

[Hatman]

OMG looks like the PQ will win Argenteuil. 10 polls left to go:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 470   36,20 %   510
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 960   33,34 %   
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 831   21,43 %   
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   534   2,99 %   
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   482   2,70 %   
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   237   1,33 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   185   1,04 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   150   0,84 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,15 %   

Another botched prediction by me

[RogueBeaver]

The Le Devoir folks will be giddy tomorrow morning, that's for sure. Maromentum.

[Hatman]

That's the first time the PQ has ever won Argenteuil, by the way.

LaFontaine (final results)

Tanguay, Marc (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 446   53,32 %   3 710
St-Jean, Frédéric (P.Q.)   1 736   17,00 %   
Cavaliere, Domenico (C.A.Q.)   1 591   15,58 %   
Rivard, Sébastien (Q.S.)   603   5,90 %   
Bérard, Gaëtan (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   308   3,02 %   
Zambito, Paolo (O.N.)   167   1,64 %   
Raza, Patrice (P.CO.Q.)   129   1,26 %   
Beauchesne, Marc-André (IND)   104   1,02 %   
Blais, Renaud (P.N.)   88   0,86 %   
Boivin, Guy (É.A.)   42   0,41 %   

Not very good numbers for the Liberals who got almost 70% last time.

[Senator MaxQue]

The drop in LaFontaine isn't good for Liberals and I'm shocked by the result in Argenteuil.

Well, I suppose than PQ would win an election, if held today, if they are able to win places like Argenteuil and have swings like that against them.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ spin: By-elections don't mean much.

PQ spin: When we win a seat that's been Liberal since Confederation, that's a BFD and Charest will be swept out whenever he pulls the plug.

[Hatman]

Terrible night for CAQ.

Vote change in LaFontaine

Liberals: -16.44
PQ: -2.11
CAQ: +9.08 (from ADQ)
QS: +3.18
PVQ: +0.29

[RogueBeaver]

The ADQ/CAQ surges happen every 4-5 years. 2002, 2006-7, 2011-2. Now they're back where they, IMO, belong.

[Hatman]

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

[RogueBeaver]

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

[Hatman]

Turnout in LaFontaine: 26% (lol; usually they have really good participation)
In Argenteuil: 42%

Final Argenteuil numbers:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 568   36,16 %   +2.54
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   6 067   33,40 %   -16.18
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 887   21,40 % +10.16
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   543   2,99 %  -0.49
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   490   2,70 %   +0.61
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   243   1,34 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   190   1,05 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   151   0,83 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,14 %

[RogueBeaver]

So the PLQ vote went CAQ.

[Hatman]

So the PLQ vote went CAQ.

I thought it would be the PQ vote that went to the CAQ.

The Conservatives finished 7th in Argenteuil as well. lololol

[Senator MaxQue]

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

[Hatman]

So, the Liberals took a 16 point hit in both ridings. That would imply that they are actually at 26% province wide.

The PQ change in both ridings were minor, a slight increase in Argenteuil, and a slight dip on LaFontaine.

CAQ gained 9-10% from the ADQ's mark in 2008. That would imply they are actually at where the Liberals are across the province, at 26%. Maybe not so bad news?

QS saw minor gains in both ridings.

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

I think he was being facetious.

[Senator MaxQue]

Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

The thinnest possible, not seen since the last Unionist hurrah over 4 decades ago.

[Judäischen Volksfront]

SCC will be hearing about Etobicoke Centre in July. If Opitz and Harper are convinced of their mandate to the public, they shouldn't fear and delay the by-election. After all, they'll get re-elected by a wider margin, right?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/supreme-court-to-interrupt-summer-break-to-hear-tossed-election-case/article4265075

[Senator MaxQue]

For the coming by-election in Rothesay:



Liberals were close of winning some polls in the west of the riding.