2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Vasall des Midas]

"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".

[Torie]

"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".

It is down to 3% margin now for Rangel, with more votes left to count.

[Zioneer]

So it turns out that the Salt Lake County Mayoral primary isn't over yet; there's going to be a recount, the results of which will be released on July 12th. It's still likely that Crockett will win, but this effectively paralyzes both candidates from campaigning effectively against McAdams until they know who won. I hate to be so partisan, but as I personally know Ben McAdams and consider him my friend, anything that makes his election easier (thankfully, the County Mayor seat is actually fairly easily winnable for Democrats) makes me happy.

[Jayhawker]

Figured as much.

Pioneer, who do you think has a better chance in the GE against McAdams?

I think it'll be a close race - we'll have to see.

[Zioneer]

Figured as much.

Pioneer, who do you think has a better chance in the GE against McAdams?

I think it'll be a close race - we'll have to see.

I honestly don't know; Winder had his Burwash problem, which is certainly easier to caricature and mock, but Crockett is reportedly hot-headed (which could lead to some gaffes), and doesn't play well with others (which could lead to a few republicans breaking ranks and going for McAdams). Crockett also doesn't have mayoral experience, which could hurt his argument. Both McAdams and Crockett do have experience working with Peter Corroon (Crockett as a County Councilman, and McAdams as a legal counsel/legislative worker), though.

Overall, I think that if Crockett wins, his political narrative will be stronger; he's a successful businessman who can characterize McAdams as an out-of-touch, way-too-liberal Salt Lake City Democrat who wants to grow government. McAdams can't characterize Crockett the way he could Winder; if Winder wins, McAdams can portray Winder as a sleazy lying "good old boys"-style Mayor who tries to make West Valley look better than it's actually doing.

However, McAdams can still give a pretty good campaign narrative if Crockett wins; he can say that a Democratic County Mayor has worked well for Salt Lake County these past 8 years, and that he'd continue Corroon's work while expanding on it through new policies (I predict that Salt Lake County will really like the anti-credit-card legislation he pushed while a state senator). He can also characterize Crockett as someone with very little experience in policy, as well as not being prepared for the job.

Either way, I agree with you; it'll be close, and probably closer than the Corroon campaigns (on account of McAdams being more liberal than Corroon); still, I think McAdams will win in the end.

[Sibboleth]

"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".

If that: seems that his majority is shrinking at a rather rapid rate...

[Sibboleth]

No interest? Let's put this slightly differently: Rangel may have lost. Things are very messy.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully he does lose. Good riddance.

[Vasall des Midas]

They ought to have all votes in by now if they were at all competent (oh wait). What were all those late-counted ballots? Dubious absentees?

[Sibboleth]

They ought to have all votes in by now if they were at all competent (oh wait). What were all those late-counted ballots? Dubious absentees?

Almighty fyck up, it seems. Entire precincts - close to a fifth of those in the district apparently - were not counted at first for some reason. And there's still a load missing.

[Meeker]

The final tally from election day (after misplacing the results of heavily-Dominican precincts for several days... hmmm, interesting) is Rangel ahead by 802. About 3000 absentee and provisional ballots left, but Espaillat would need something like 70% of those to win. So Rangel will likely be declared the victor, though I would not at all be surprised if further errors were discovered in the coming days.

[Zioneer]

Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.

[Jayhawker]

Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.

I care!

Also, I've been seeing a lot of Cooke signs around. He may break 40%!

[RogueBeaver]

Next up: Missouri, Connecticut and Wisconsin. MO is a total clusterfark, no idea who's going to win that primary.

[Zioneer]

Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.

I care!

Also, I've been seeing a lot of Cooke signs around. He may break 40%!

I know, right? I'll honestly be excited if Cooke gets within 10% of matching Herbert, since that means the narrative on Utah Democrats is weakening! If he gets within 5% of winning... Then we'll know that a new era in Utah politics is happening. And if by some fluke Cooke squeaks through a win, I will be happy beyond belief.

[MilesC56]

Well, the NC runoff is today. As I said before, I'm pulling for Robert Pittenger in NC-09 R primary.

Jim Pendergraph has the potential to be worse than Myrick; his signs campaign even look exactly like hers did.

[smoltchanov]

Well, the NC runoff is today. As I said before, I'm pulling for Robert Pittenger in NC-09 R primary.

Jim Pendergraph has the potential to be worse than Myrick; his signs campaign even look exactly like hers did.

If i remember correctly - Pittenger is very conservative state Senator, and Pendegraph is former Democrat. Is it possible to be "more conservative"?)))))

[MilesC56]

On a second look, I've decided to support Pendergraph.

I just went to vote with my mom (she's a registered Republican). I told her to vote for Pendergraph for Congress and Jim Gurley for Lt. Gov. (because he was polling worse against Linda Coleman).

[MilesC56]

On a second look, I've decided to support Pendergraph.

I just went to vote with my mom (she's a registered Republican). I told her to vote for Pendergraph for Congress and Jim Gurley for Lt. Gov. (because he was polling worse against Linda Coleman).

Well, bad night for me...

Pendergraph actually won the Mecklenburg portion of NC-09 by about 3 points. Pittenger cleaned house in the Union and Iredell parts though.

[Mr. Morden]

Missouri Senate primary results on Politico:

http://www.politico.com/

Steelman has about 200 votes, which puts her in an early lead.

[RogueBeaver]

You mean here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/MO

[Mr. Morden]

You mean here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/MO

Either link works for me, though yours has a map.

Steelman 47%
Akin 23%
Brunner 23%

But that's with 0.1% reporting. 

[RogueBeaver]

Now Brunner 33, Steelman 31, Akin 29. This'll be a while.

[RogueBeaver]

Akin 42, Brunner 34, Steelman 21 with 0.4% in. Why? STL, at least with less than 1% in.

[RogueBeaver]

1% in: Akin 36, Brunner 32, Steelman 27.