2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[MilesC56]

Any NC House primaries to watch for?

As far as incumbents, not really. Jones has a more conservative challenger, but I doubt anything happens.

I also can't wait to see who wins the NC-09 GOP primary...and becomes my next Congressman

[Jayhawker]

Lugar's getting increasingly desperate, throwing all sorts of mud at Mourdock in hopes that some will stick. Internal polling can't be pretty. At this rate I expect Mourdock to win by a narrow (3-4 at best) margin.


Any NC House primaries to watch for?

Lugar's desperate? You should see the campaign Mourdock is running here.

Lugar is currently running a terrific ad, that'll likely put him over the top:
http://youtu.be/mbmfpA6M8YQ

Basically, it's Daniels promoting Lugar. This'll greatly influence the voters who are either undecided or have no clue who to vote for, as Daniel's endorsement carries some heavy weight around here.

[Gravis Marketing]

The NY Times headline is "2 House Democrats Defeated After Opposing Health Law"

That's pretty bogus, isn't it? Critz campaigned against health care reform in his special election and won in a turf battle; Holden was too conservative for a Dem pack district where 80% of voters were new and would have lost if HCR had never happened.

[Torie]

The NY Times headline is "2 House Democrats Defeated After Opposing Health Law"

That's pretty bogus, isn't it? Critz campaigned against health care reform in his special election and won in a turf battle; Holden was too conservative for a Dem pack district where 80% of voters were new and would have lost if HCR had never happened.

Correct, but labor was able to punish Altmire for being a moderate in general, or whatever, by goosing up the turnout in Cambria and Somerset Counties.  Apparently the turnout was considerably lighter in the Altmire areas.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What's going on Tuesday? Nothing in West Virginia, but in Indiana Dick Lugar looks to be on his way out. There are also de facto general elections on the Republican side in the open IN-05 and IN-06. There's a former Congressman running in IN-05, David McIntosh.

In North Carolina, Republicans have primaries in NC-07, 08, 09, 11, and 13. Democrats have a gubernatorial primary.

Oh, also there's the primary for the Wisconsin recall.

[Torie]

WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?

The new PA-17 is Obama 57-42

Here's proof J. J. is trolling by deliberately being dense. Everyone who followed this in the slightest knows that the new PA-17 picked up Scranton and is far more Dem and thus pretty far from R+6, basically the inverse in fact.

D +4% to be precise. The seat won't be in play, unless we get a 2010 redux perhaps (which we won't be most probably), but even then probably not given the Pub candidate. But BRTD, not everyone has been following the redistricting game as assiduously as we have been.

[Keystone Phil]

Even in a 2010 environment, PA 17 will not be in play. End.

[Senator X]

What's going on Tuesday? Nothing in West Virginia, but in Indiana Dick Lugar looks to be on his way out. There are also de facto general elections on the Republican side in the open IN-05 and IN-06. There's a former Congressman running in IN-05, David McIntosh.

In North Carolina, Republicans have primaries in NC-07, 08, 09, 11, and 13. Democrats have a gubernatorial primary.

Oh, also there's the primary for the Wisconsin recall.

There's also the Republican primary in IN-8.  Bucschon will probably win, but I suspect it will be at least somewhat close, and he could lose (which would increase the chances of Crooks winning).  At least that's the sense I've gotten, although I could be completely off.  There's the Democratic primary in IN-9, but I am not sure that it matters much who wins there.  Interestingly, Capito actually seems to have a non-some dude primary opponent (a state delegate, in fact), although she'll probably still win by quite a bit.  There is also the Republican primary in NC-3, Jones should win, but from what I understand his opponent has been getting a lot of help from Campaign for Primary Accountability (among others).  Lastly, there are a bunch of other primaries for both parties (mainly Republicans though) for various North Carolina statewide offices. 

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Bushon's opponent (whom both Tmfth and I support) has a good chance of winning. IN-2 will be coming home to the Tea Party in November with Walorski. McIntosh is favored in the 5th though he'll have a challenge fron his right in Chard Reid (Libertarian).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Precinct maps of the PA-12 and PA-17 Dem primaries:

[Torie]

I was yearning for those maps Johnny.  Thanks!  You know, that geographic divide of near perfect proportions as one color fades into another and goes deep of hue, is quite remarkable for the Critz/Altmire race, where ideology was merely at the confused margins. Sure there was a geographic divide in the Holden/Cartwright race, and some of it was about geography, but there ideology no doubt played a substantial role as well.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Both Altmire and Critz are on the right wing of the Dmeocratic party, so I don't see ideology as a factor there. Obviously was in PA-17.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico has the WI-Gov and IN-Sen primaries here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/IN

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Governor/2012/Primary/WI

[MilesC56]

Politico is saying Mourdock is up 51/49 with 0% in.

[Meeker]

Bucshon is beating his poorly-funded Tea Party opponent by only 63-37 with 2% in

The good news for him is that he's leading throughout the district

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AP results are here. Mourdock up 56-44 with a handful of precincts in.

[Keystone Phil]

What the hell? It's 6:30. Did polls close at 6 or something? I've never heard of polls closing this early.

[Meeker]

Yeah, they close at 6 local time. Same in Kentucky.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

What the hell? It's 6:30. Did polls close at 6 or something? I've never heard of polls closing this early.

Indiana closes at 6

Politico is saying Mourdock is up 51/49 with 0% in.

Messer up in IN-6

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, they close at 6 local time. Same in Kentucky.

I thought they closed at 7. Weird.

[Meeker]

^^^ well the whole state doesn't close until 7 because of the portion in CST; maybe that's what you were thinking of.

Presidential primary at 65 Romney, 14 Santorum, 12 Paul, 8 Gingrich fwiw

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Update on IN-Sen
Mourdock (Tea Party) 57%
Lugar (Mod) 43%

[rob in cal]

Anyone have any feelings about how well Lugar will do in Indianapolis region.  I'm guessing he'll win that area, and if thats the case how much of a cushion does Mourdoch need in the rest of the state?

[Nhoj]

^^^ well the whole state doesn't close until 7 because of the portion in CST; maybe that's what you were thinking of.

Presidential primary at 65 Romney, 14 Santorum, 12 Paul, 8 Gingrich fwiw

Paul is tied with romney in marion county[ indy] of course its probably 4 people total.

[Is JCL in mushy sappy love]

Lugar down 19With 3% reporting