The Battle Continues, But The Numbers Have Been Crunched...

[King]

Guys, is my memory malfunctioning?  If I recall, Obama failed to put Hillary away, but superdelegates decided that his plurality was good enough.  If this is the the comparison to suggest Romney has it locked up, it's a bad one.

[BigSkyBob]

Guys, is my memory malfunctioning?  If I recall, Obama failed to put Hillary away, but superdelegates decided that his plurality was good enough.  If this is the the comparison to suggest Romney has it locked up, it's a bad one.

That is what happened. Winning the majority of elected delegates creates a strong moral case that the superdelegates ought to respect. The democratic superdelegates didn't dare screw over a Black man. I doubt the Republican establishment would have any compunction against screwing over conservatives. At least, make them do their dirty business in the light of day.

[Likely Voter]

Obama actually won a majority of pledged delegates, but since the Dems have so many supers, it wasn't enough. He could have won even if Hillary had a slim majority of supers, but she would have needed like 70% of the supers to put her over the top. In the end Obama got 2/3/s of the supers and he won.

While the GOP has less supers, the scenario where the supers put Romney over the top is a distinct possibility. I think an interesting scenario would be if Romney wins just over 1000 delegates and then gets put over the top by picking up 80-100% of the unpledged delegates. That could be seen by tea partiers and other grassroots conservatives as the establishment forcing a Romney nomination. The net result could be less base enthusiasm, resulting in lower turnout.

[useful idiot]

I don't think Illinois is essential. I get the feeling that April 3 is going to be far more important in the grand scheme of things. If Santorum can't win Wisconsin (assuming that he won't win MD without WI), then he's going to have a hard time sustaining any momentum. Let's say he wins Louisiana on March 24th, then loses WI and MD on the 3rd. That means that between March 24th and May 8th the only two states he has a shot at are PA and DE. That's just disastrous. Even though the May calender looks excellent for him (NC, IN, WV, KY, AR, TX), by that point any moral victory is worthless because the numbers just don't work.

If he wants to boost his numbers in these Romney states (NY, RI, CT, CA) in order to get a significant number of delegates, he has to consistently win, and not having a victory besides your home state between March 24th and May 8th just isn't going to do it.

If Gingrich gets out though, even at this point, I think you'll see Santorum win in IL, WI, and possibly MD. That would probably irreparably harm Romney's guarantee of getting to 1144 because that means he has to get a very large portion of his 600 or so needed delegates out of CA, NY, UT, and CT, which have a combined total of 335. Obviously he can (and probably would) still make it up by solid showings in Santorum states, but it's definitely harder.

[Whacker77]

...and there is virtually no way to deny Romney the nomination short of upsets in winner-take-all California, New Jersey and *drum roll* Utah. Good luck with that!

If Romney wins Mississippi, the polar opposite of Romney's home state of Massachusetts, it is time for Santorum and Gingrich to endorse Romney. If they continue this circus, they are only helping the cause of Barack Obama and Co...

Congratulations Winfield!

Care to revise and extend these remarks?

It's becoming more and more possible each day Willard will need extra help, a deal unpledged delegates, to push him over the 1144 mark.

Romney is starting to get nervous as well.  He's begun to speak about the ills of a convention because he wants scare everyone into voting for him now.  He knows if he doesn't win it on the first ballot, he'll likely not win the nomination.

[Whacker77]

Why do Romney supporters pretend to not understand that the threshold that needs to be crossed for them to claim victory is not that no other candidate can get a first round majority, but that Romney can get a first round majority?  That is not yet certain.  If Romney arrives in Tampa with a plurality but not a majority, then he probably will not be the nominee.

I completely agree with this.  Newt and Santorum are now in this to block Romney from 1144.  If Romney doesn't get that number on the first ballot, he will not win on future ballots.

[Whacker77]

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

So Romney can lose all the way to the nomination?  Wow, that's exciting.  He'll be on quite a roll, won't he.

[BigSkyBob]

Folks, Romney won more delegates yesterday than anybody else thanks to big wins in Hawaii and American Samoa. Like Obama (and unlike Hillary) four years ago, Team Romney knows that this is about delegates. And the Romney lead in delegates is insurmountable unless Santorum wins most everywhere from here on out, including New Jersey and Utah. Not just that, Santorum would need to crush, not just beat, Romney in places like Connecticut and Rhode Island (Home of the Winfield).

Folks, this game is over. Santorum is like a team trying to comeback from a 48-24 deficit in the third quarter of a football game. Yeah, you got off to a 3-0 start, but you're down 48-24 now. A comeback is not going to happen...

Except the more apt analogy is that it is halftime, Romney is up 24-20, but, his opponents have gained more yardage, and, the field goal Romney kicked as the first half ended is being reviewed by the officials.

[Whacker77]

The Romney campaign is turning into the gang that can't shoot straight.  Last night, they were giddy they might win Mississippi and suggested the race would effectively end if that happened.  Unfortunately, they lost and then Eric Fernstrom went on CNN and said winning AL and MS weren't important.  He then pointed to Samoa.

I understand the Romney gang is doing their best to spin a bad night, but the delegate math argument is a loser for them.  It gives the impression Mitt doesn't actually need to win any of these competitive states to win the nomination.  Maybe I'm old fashioned, but winning ought to matter.

Romney needs to excite the base and some sort of convoluted discussion about delegates is not going to do it.  Still, that's the best case Romney has right now because he knows the conservative base is opposed to him in the primary.  Newt was not a real candidate, yet he got more than 30% in both states and beat Romney.

Romney does not have this race sealed up at all.  He may still win it, but his path to 1144 grows more difficult with each race.  Romney's own numbers say he must win 47% of the remaining delegates, but he's shown no signs of being able to do that.  If Newt and Santorum hold Romney to 1000 delegates or less, the unpledged delegates probably won't put him over the top.

Romney pushing this delegate math argument because he is aware that if he can't win on the first ballot, he probably won't win at all.  When delegates are allowed to vote for whomever they choose, it's hard to envision Santorum and Newt voters abandoning their men in order to save Romney's flagging chances.  Same for the Pail delegates.  It's far more likely Romney's delegates begin to peel off in attempts to find a consensus choice, possibly someone not even in the race.

I will stand by my prediction of more than a month ago.  The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.

It's Romney or Santorum. There isn't going to be a knight on a white horse here. You heard it here first.

[milhouse24]

The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.

It's Romney or Santorum. There isn't going to be a knight on a white horse here. You heard it here first.

It will really come down to who Romney selects as his VP.  Would there be any GOP Vice Presidential pick that you think can appease the "anti-Romney crowd" but also help Romney win independent swing voters? 

I think whoever VP he picks should be catholic and from a swing state, and with plenty of political experience. 

[Senator Clarence]

Milhouse24- Santorum meets those standards

[Politico]

I do not have the spreadsheet in front of me, but if you put WTA NJ and UT in the Romney column, along with even just half the delegates from CA, he only needs a little over 1/3rd of the remaining delegates to get to 1144. I mean, there is no reason to believe that Santorum is going to suddenly start winning heavily in places like CT, RI, NY, and CA, especially when you factor in Romney's unbeatable edge in finances (who won OH again? Who won MI again? Oh, and who won more delegates yesterday???)

Some of you guys are just being duped by the media into believing this is not a foregone conclusion. They want their high ratings and you are helping them.

It really would take an act of God for Romney to not be the nominee, folks...

Personally, I believe Romney should focus upon Obama, and his campaign should start vetting Gov. Bob McDonnell. The sooner we can roll out the undeniably conservative running mate, the better!

[Likely Voter]

if you put WTA NJ and UT in the Romney column, along with even just half the delegates from CA, he only needs a little over 1/3rd of the remaining delegates to get to 1144.

Actually he would need 467 of the remaining 1078, which is 44.4%
(including Romney winning DC, which is also WTA)

[ajb]

Milhouse24- Santorum meets those standards

As, obviously, did Joe Biden. Well, not that DE itself was a swing state, but he was there to appeal to exactly that demographic in places like PA and OH.

[Torie]

Romney could win CA by 20 points and not carry every CD. That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans. He will lose in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire outside of the Palm Springs area. Inland OC and LA county will be areas to watch. Still, Romney wins with 10 points even with only Santorum and Paul opposing him and will easily win a majority of CD's.

I agree with this. Like I said before, it was a calculation that I think is a rounding error for all intensive purposes. The geographic area you're talking about is rather vast but sparse; all of that adds up (with the exception of OC) to about ten congressional districts @ 3 apiece. There are certainly millions of Californians extreme enough to go for Santorum but the Democratically-drawn lines do a good job at keeping them divided and/or isolated.

Still, looking at my other numbers, even if you throw Santorum 100 delegates from California, Romney's still going to have major leeway when it comes to getting the combined number of pledged and unpledged to walk with this thing.

I'm pretty sure the new districts will be used, won't they? And they aren't drawn by the Democrats and aren't a bipartisan gerrymander like the current districts. I don't know whether the new lines are more beneficial to Santorum or not. I suspect they are, just slightly. Two districts I can think of that will be more beneficial for him are the Riverside area district that does not go into wealthy areas of OC anymore and the San Joaquin county district that does not pick up wealthy Bay Area suburbs.

Yes, income was a factor in redistricting. But income as I have been saying, is not enough. It needs to be combined with Evangelicalism. In fact, for Nate Silver, income is not a factor at all, it is all about religion and region, but I suspect he can get away with it because income and Evangelicalism are correlated. But less so in CA in the sense that the Evangelicalism numbers are low.

[Torie]

That being said Romney does have an advantage. He will likely win every CD in the Bay Area (maybe a surprise in the east bay but likely it will just be closer than the rest) and most in LA county where there aren't many Republicans.

What are the registration requirements for that primary?  If Dems wanted to mess with the GOP primary, could they Operation Hilarity a few delegates towards Santorum?  Presumably it wouldn't take many voters to do so.

Only Republicans get to vote, not even Independents.

But how does party registration work in California?  Can you just show up at the polls and say "I'm a Republican", or do you have to fill out a registration card weeks/months in advance?

You need to register as a Pub 30 days in advance I think.

[J. J.]

Milhouse24- Santorum meets those standards

As, obviously, did Joe Biden. Well, not that DE itself was a swing state, but he was there to appeal to exactly that demographic in places like PA and OH.

I doubt if the heard of him in OH, prior to the nomination.  Certainly, in eastern PA, he had years worth of media.

[BigSkyBob]

The nominee will either be Romney or someone not in the race.

It's Romney or Santorum. There isn't going to be a knight on a white horse here. You heard it here first.

It will really come down to who Romney selects as his VP. 

No, it really comes down to a question of whether, or not, he has enough delegates.