March 13 Results

[argentarius]

Paul's gone under 20%. Does that mean anything with regards to threshold? He's doing very badly in Honolulu. Without that he could be winning.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney gets 46%, still pretty bad for him for a state where the Republicans are relatively moderate, there are hardly any Christians, and around 20% of the Christians are Mormons.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

It says 99% reporting but there are likely more results outstanding -- the vote total just hit CNN's estimated turnout, which was evidently too low.

CNN just called it for Romney (brave call)

Could still be >50% Romney.  It's mandate enough, not that the media will actually care -- a non-close win is a win.

[Lief]

Hawaii doesn't have a threshold, so he should still get some delegates. AP hasn't updated CD numbers in a while, but the statewide delegates currently break down:

Romney: 6
Santorum: 3
Paul: 2

However, a small shift to Paul would result in 5-3-3, so we'll see what happens.

[argentarius]

How much of a shift are we talking about? I think he should do very well in Kauai and Hawaii counties 5 remaining precincts.

[ottermax]

Can a caucus be determined by one precinct?

The District 46/47 precinct caucus (don't ask me why Hawaii has such large precincts...) results:
Gingrich - 9
Paul - 44
Romney - 1027
Santorum - 28

This district is of course home to BYU-Hawaii...

[State Comptroller Atkins]

No mandate for Romney in Hawaii.

He won, and hence he has a "mandate".

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Does Hawaii really have few Christians?  I just thought it had very few evangelicals.

[redcommander]

Seriously? He creamed Santorum by 20% points. I don't know why some of you aren't thinking that's a pretty solid mandate considering we have a four man race. BTW, Santorum didn't exactly win a blowout in the South, so I don't know why certain people think this is a game changer.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Current Hawaii caucus results without Mormonia:

Romney 2,203 (36%)
Santorum 1,814 (30%)
Paul 1,279 (21%)
Gingrich 789 (13%)

Early Kauai results are a Paulslide.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

He won, and hence he has a "mandate".

ABR wins Hawaii, yet another state for ABR.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

so now Ron Paul is winning 2 of 4 counties while not reaching 20%

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Seriously? He creamed Santorum by over 20% points. I don't know why some of you aren't thinking that's a pretty solid mandate considering we have a four man race.

Presumably he thinks that Lincoln, Wilson, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, etc didn't have mandates either.

[Lief]

Statewide: R5-6, S3, P2-3
CD1: R2, S1
CD2: R2, S0-1, P0-1

Best case Romney scenario is 10 delegates, worst case is 9. Santorum should get either 4 or 5 and Paul should get between 2 and 4.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Presumably he thinks that Lincoln, Wilson, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, etc didn't have mandates either.

Mandate > 50.

9-5-4 on delegates? That's a victory for Santorum and Paul, if they nullify Romney in HI.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Ron Paul nearly won every county that didn't have the oldest Mormon temple in the world outside of Utah.

[Lief]

Current delegate totals with 38 precincts reporting:

Romney: 9
Santorum: 5
Paul: 3

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Great 'victory' Mitt.

He did better in Mississippi and Alabama than he did in Hawaii outside of Honolulu.

[RBH]

Mitt
Mentum

[argentarius]

18.3, is that enough for 3 Paul delegates?

[Lief]

Final delegate totals should be, depending on who gets second in CD2 (currently it's Rick):

R 9
S 5 (or 4)
P 3 (or 4)

Romney just misses a 6th statewide delegate, to the benefit of Paul.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are results available for the MS Dem primary? Uncommitted won enough in Alabama to get delegates, I was curious the same happened in Mississippi.

[J. J.]

Santorum is the ABR candidate.

Romney, surprisingly, gets a plurality of 6 delegates over Santorum

Now, will there be a projection for MO?  That could be a win for Santorum.

PR seems solid for Romney, but there is a chance of a Santorum victory.

Then there is IL. 

To break through, Santorum has to win one, in terms of delegates.

[muon2]

Santorum is the ABR candidate.

Romney, surprisingly, gets a plurality of 6 delegates over Santorum

Now, will there be a projection for MO?  That could be a win for Santorum.

PR seems solid for Romney, but there is a chance of a Santorum victory.

Then there is IL.

To break through, Santorum has to win one, in terms of delegates.

See you next week.

[MilesC56]

I tried to calculate the results for MS-04. It pretty much comes down to the precincts in Clarke county. Excluding all of Clarke from the results, its Gingrich by 37 votes. Including all if Clarke, it Santorum wins the district by 7 votes.