2012 Taiwan Election

[jaichind]

Looks like I did goof up the party vote
If seems it is

KMT 44
DPP 35
TSU  9
PFP   5.4

which would translate in seats

KMT  16
DPP   13
TSU    3
PFP     2

Where as I predicted KMT 19 DPP 15.  I got the relative vote shares between KMT and DPP right but I felt that both TSU, PFP, and NP all would not cross 5%.  But PFP barely did and TSU got 9%.  TSU which is a DPP ally most likely got that high of a vote due to its statement that if it does not get above 5% it would dissolve itself as a party.

[Vasall des Midas]

Funny, I'm live streaming CCTV at this moment and they're pretending the election isn't occurring at all. Given the better-than-expected result for Ma, this reflects an ultra-cautious stance by the Politburo bigwigs.

[jaichind]

Another update comparison to my prediction

Prediction
KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

Current result (only about .5% left to count)
Ma     51.6
Tsai    45.6
Soong  2.8

LiFaYuan Prediction

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

Result
KMT+allies   46 FPTP + 5 Taiwan aborigine seats + 16 party list = 67 seats
DPP+allies    27 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 13 party list = 40 seats
PFP                0 FPTP + 1 Taiwan aborgine seats +   2 party list  = 3 seats
TSU               0 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats +   3 party list  = 3 seats

I actaully got the Blue/Green balance correct 70 vs 43.  Instead of KMT vs DPP as 70 vs 43. It is KMT+PFP 70 vs DPP+TSU 43.

My psudo-final prediction - no change from before

KMT (Ma)   51%
DPP (Tsai)  45%
PFP (Soong) 4%

2012 ROC LiFaYuan Prediction
KMT+allies   45 FPTP + 6 Taiwan aborigine seats + 19 party list = 70 seats
DPP+allies    28 FPTP + 0 Taiwan aborigine seats + 15 party list = 43 seats
PFP                0 FTTP + 0 Taiwan aborgine seats +   0 party list  = 0 seats

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that PFP will flop completely.  They will not pass 5% in the party list vote to get seats.  They will lose all FPTP seats and their candidate will not win any of the Taiwan aborigine seats.  Of course there will be tactical voting in the Prez vote and Soong will fall to 4%.  The biggest collapse for Soong support will be in urban areas, his vote will hold up in rural areas.

[Novelty]

I wondered why there was a north-south divide, so I did a google search and it threw up this blog post.  Very informative - http://nottspolitics.org/2011/11/02/the-geography-of-voting-patterns-in-taiwan/

[Vasall des Midas]

So the abos vote KMT?

[Judäischen Volksfront]

So the abos vote KMT?

Yep, strongly (though this has much to do with past KMT patronage and popular prejudice). Ironically, the separatists, who are predominately Hoklo, exploit Aboriginal dress/language/customs etc to bolster their argument that Taiwan is not Chinese...except that Aboriginals don't buy that rhetoric.

[jaichind]

The blog in question generally got it right but still does not explain why Hoklos in Northern Taiwan province votes KMT at a greater rate than Hoklos in Southern Taiwan province.  The main difference is income and education.  See my last post post the 2008 ROC elections

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67360.30

While national identify plays a role, some of the identities a created through economic interests.  Northern Hoklos with high income and education sees economic integration with Mainland China as useful as they do not work in economic sectors that compete head to head with Mainland China.  In lower income Southren Taiwan Province it is a different story.  Of course in the next 10-15 years as the Mainland continues its catchup with Taiwan Province there will be further alignment. 

Note that back in the 1990s the DPP was stronger in Northern Taiwan Province and the KMT strongre in Southren Taiwan Province.  During the 1990s economic integration with the Mainland was not a significant factor in politics.

I wondered why there was a north-south divide, so I did a google search and it threw up this blog post.  Very informative - http://nottspolitics.org/2011/11/02/the-geography-of-voting-patterns-in-taiwan/

[jaichind]

Pretty much.  There are about 150K Plains Aborigine and 200K Mountain Aborigine.  Most of them are low income low education and are concentrated in Hualian counties and Taidong counties. Both county governments are in the hands of pan-Blue political forces from top to bottom, although in 2009 DPP did capture Taidong county executive due to poor KMT candidate selection. 
As a result all government subsidies that goes to Aborigines are going via pan-Blue political forces. The Aborigines vote KMT or allies as a result.  Some DPP factions also enage in Hoklo  Chauvinism which tends to drive those Aborigines that mirgated to urban areas toward the KMT.

So the abos vote KMT?

Yep, strongly (though this has much to do with past KMT patronage and popular prejudice). Ironically, the separatists, who are predominately Hoklo, exploit Aboriginal dress/language/customs etc to bolster their argument that Taiwan is not Chinese...except that Aboriginals don't buy that rhetoric.

[jaichind]

Note that a lot of internet based media on mainland China did cover the election.  Election night it is said that over 250 million Mainland Chinese were watching the coverage.  It was said that a lot of them were moved by Tsai's concession speech.  The official media, correctly so, could not cover the election.  I would not have it any other way.  The current unsaid concensus of the Taipei and Beijing regimes are that both sides will claim to be the one and only legitimate government of China and that there is only one China which includes both Taiwan Province and Mainland China. 

Funny, I'm live streaming CCTV at this moment and they're pretending the election isn't occurring at all. Given the better-than-expected result for Ma, this reflects an ultra-cautious stance by the Politburo bigwigs.

[jaichind]

Some final thoughts on 2012 ROC elections.  As I mentioned before in 2008 and just like the ROC election of 2008, this election is a reflection of the partisan divisions of what I call "System of 2000."
See the last post of http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67360.30 where I outline this.  It mostly comes down to urban/rural divide and ethnic identify politics.  Pan-Blue are getting releatively stronger in urban areas and relatively weaker in rural areas.  Looking at 2000 versus 2012 pan-blue vote and swings we get

         2000   
       59.10%   14.64%   26.26%
Region   Total   Urban   Township   Rural
Greater Jinmen   96.64%    N/A   96.12%   97.58%
Hualian County   78.19%   74.83%   80.06%   79.64%
Taidong County   76.55%   71.83%   82.60%   80.18%
Miaoli County   71.97%   77.07%   66.57%   79.33%
Greater Hsintsu   69.21%   65.73%   72.42%   74.68%
Taoyuan County   66.10%   67.74%   64.88%   63.36%
Greater Taipei   62.70%   62.64%   64.19%   62.44%
Naotou County   65.22%   68.25%   63.09%   66.52%
Greater Taichung   62.86%   62.26%   62.94%   64.12%
Penghu County   62.94%   64.58%   N/A   60.44%
Changhwa County   59.57%   61.29%   60.23%   58.38%
Yilan County   52.69%   57.34%   55.26%   49.13%
Greater Kaoshiung   53.23%   54.05%   55.69%   50.61%
Pingdong County   53.34%   57.81%   51.08%   52.17%
Yunlin County   52.72%   58.42%   52.25%   51.53%
Greater Jiayi   51.01%   51.81%   53.08%   50.03%
Greater Tainan   48.96%   53.27%   41.92%   45.13%
Total                  60.07%   61.03%   60.12%   57.87%

         2012   
      60.81%   14.14%   25.05%
Region   Total   Urban   Township   Rural
Greater Jinmen   91.80%   N/A   91.87%   91.70%
Hualian County   74.06%   72.68%   73.28%   75.02%
Taidong County   69.50%   66.34%   74.62%   72.14%
Miaoli County   66.82%   74.46%   61.86%   72.51%
Greater Hsintsu   65.24%   61.86%   70.43%   70.11%
Taoyuan County   60.15%   62.26%   59.95%   56.04%
Greater Taipei   58.41%   58.80%   56.65%   54.13%
Naotou County   57.63%   60.33%   56.84%   57.11%
Greater Taichung   55.32%   56.18%   54.12%   53.88%
Penghu County   54.35%   56.42%   N/A   50.88%
Changhwa County   53.51%   56.53%   54.34%   51.55%
Yilan County   47.47%   53.38%   49.82%   43.48%
Greater Kaoshiung   46.58%   48.39%   47.69%   41.62%
Pingdong County   44.87%   51.98%   43.00%   42.45%
Yunlin County   44.19%   54.34%   44.35%   40.98%
Greater Jiayi   43.88%   47.07%   43.83%   41.16%
Greater Tainan   42.28%   46.46%   35.48%   37.51%
Total                  54.37%   56.29%   54.02%   49.90%

      00 to 12 swing      
            
Region   total del   Urban del   town del   rural del
Greater Jinmen   -4.83%   N/A   -4.25%   -5.89%
Hualian County   -4.13%   -2.15%   -6.78%   -4.61%
Taidong County   -7.06%   -5.49%   -7.98%   -8.04%
Miaoli County   -5.15%   -2.60%   -4.70%   -6.83%
Greater Hsintsu   -3.96%   -3.87%   -2.00%   -4.57%
Taoyuan County   -5.95%   -5.48%   -4.93%   -7.31%
Greater Taipei   -4.30%   -3.84%   -7.54%   -8.31%
Naotou County   -7.58%   -7.92%   -6.25%   -9.42%
Greater Taichung   -7.54%   -6.08%   -8.81%   -10.25%
Penghu County   -8.60%   -8.16%   N/A   -9.56%
Changhwa County   -6.06%   -4.76%   -5.89%   -6.83%
Yilan County   -5.22%   -3.96%   -5.43%   -5.65%
Greater Kaoshiung   -6.66%   -5.65%   -8.00%   -8.99%
Pingdong County   -8.48%   -5.83%   -8.08%   -9.72%
Yunlin County   -8.53%   -4.09%   -7.90%   -10.55%
Greater Jiayi   -7.13%   -4.73%   -9.25%   -8.87%
Greater Tainan   -6.68%   -6.81%   -6.44%   -7.62%
Total                  -5.70%   -4.74%   -6.10%   -7.97%

The trend of Pan-Blues gaining relatively in urban areas since 2000 which itself was a realigning election of Blue strength in urban areas and weakness in rural areas have continued.  What is bad for Pan-Greens is that the % of the vote that is in urban areas are going up and rural areas down.