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Author Topic: Illinois Primary Results  (Read 6113 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #75 on: March 20, 2012, 07:02:28 pm »
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Yes, it's Romney +10-11
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Oakvale
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« Reply #76 on: March 20, 2012, 07:02:50 pm »
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Someone's already posted this, in all likelihood, but we'll be in Mibbit, as usual.

#atlasforum
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #77 on: March 20, 2012, 07:03:18 pm »
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Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #78 on: March 20, 2012, 07:06:51 pm »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 07:03:18 pm
Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...

good luck on that.
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J. J.
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« Reply #79 on: March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm »
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Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.
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J. J.

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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #80 on: March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.
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« Reply #81 on: March 20, 2012, 07:09:05 pm »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 20, 2012, 07:03:18 pm
Last minute voters strong for Santorum and Santorum usually overperforms his exit poll results. This could be a close one...

I think he'll close the gap, but Romney will prevail here.
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J. J.
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« Reply #82 on: March 20, 2012, 07:11:32 pm »
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Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #83 on: March 20, 2012, 07:12:41 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:11:32 pm
Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111
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J. J.
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« Reply #84 on: March 20, 2012, 07:14:26 pm »
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Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:12:41 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:11:32 pm
Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111

He's only leading Santorum by 4 points there.  Wink
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J. J.

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"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Meeker
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« Reply #85 on: March 20, 2012, 07:16:35 pm »
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Second round of exits brings it down to

Romney: 44%
Santorum: 36%
Gingrich: 11%
Paul: 9%
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Torie
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« Reply #86 on: March 20, 2012, 07:17:26 pm »
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One thing of note. The demographic/geographic  divide is muted - ala Mississippi and Alabama. In Chicagoland, Mittens is only winning by about 13% or something, and just down 5% with "rural" voters - only 10% of the voters are something, but where Rick runs best. So for purposes of winning CD's, Mittens' vote is well distributed. He still has a shot of winning 17 out of 18 CD's (with Mittens getting Ill-12 no matter who wins the popular vote there since Rick has no delegates filed there) with but a 10% margin with this distribution. My best guess would be 15-16 CD's go Mittens, if these exit poll numbers are right.
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« Reply #87 on: March 20, 2012, 07:18:43 pm »
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According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.
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ex-Senator X
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« Reply #88 on: March 20, 2012, 07:19:34 pm »
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Does anyone have a link to the AP page?
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #89 on: March 20, 2012, 07:19:51 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:14:26 pm
Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:12:41 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:11:32 pm
Quote from: Alcon on March 20, 2012, 07:07:44 pm
Quote from: J. J. on March 20, 2012, 07:07:03 pm
Santorum lost the Catholic vote, again.

As he has been for eons.  Catholic Republicans are establishment types.  This isn't some knock to Santorum...they're just not his electorate.

Mittens is winning Tea Party supporters as well.  He's losing Evangelicals but by a reduced margin.

On the other hand, Romney has absolutely crashed among those neutral to the Tea Party.  GAME CHANGER!1111

He's only leading Santorum by 4 points there.  Wink

But if Romney should be absolutely obliterating among the neutral if he's nearly tied among supporters.  Santorum may be lagging with Catholics, but Romney certainly needs the wishy-washy, ambivalent vote to win.  It's his core base of support.
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J. J.
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« Reply #90 on: March 20, 2012, 07:21:13 pm »
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Quote from: ShadowOfTheWave on March 20, 2012, 07:18:03 pm
Where are the actual results?

There are not any yet.

Quote from: Lief on March 20, 2012, 07:18:43 pm
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That in northern IL without Cook and the bordering counties.  In other words, not much.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #91 on: March 20, 2012, 07:21:38 pm »
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Quote from: Mr. X on March 20, 2012, 07:19:34 pm
Does anyone have a link to the AP page?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Page_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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J. J.
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« Reply #92 on: March 20, 2012, 07:22:46 pm »
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Quote from: cinyc on March 20, 2012, 07:21:38 pm
Quote from: Mr. X on March 20, 2012, 07:19:34 pm
Does anyone have a link to the AP page?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/IL_Page_0320.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #93 on: March 20, 2012, 07:22:53 pm »
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Historically few counties will report before 8 pm here. The first load of votes will be early voting when it does show up (usually with 0 precincts reporting).
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #94 on: March 20, 2012, 07:24:05 pm »
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WTF is John King smoking? He just said that Santorum has no chance to take Nebraska and South Dakota, while he considered himself "generous" by giving him West Virginia.
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« Reply #95 on: March 20, 2012, 07:24:41 pm »
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Quote from: Lief on March 20, 2012, 07:18:43 pm
According to the exit polls Santorum is leading in some area called "Northern Illinois" that is 30% of the electorate.

That must mean Rock Island, Moline and Rockford and the corn fields in-between. Smiley  But no, not 30%.  Something is wrong. But moving right along, that does put this CD in play (which is one of the 4 that were already in play):



and this one (which I also had in play), maybe.
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« Reply #96 on: March 20, 2012, 07:25:21 pm »
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Cook county is showing about 800 votes so far. R 46%, S 31%, P 17%, G 6%.
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Torie
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« Reply #97 on: March 20, 2012, 07:26:15 pm »
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Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on March 20, 2012, 07:24:05 pm
WTF is John King smoking? He just said that Santorum has no chance to take Nebraska and South Dakota, while he considered himself "generous" by giving him West Virginia.

Whatever the strain, I want some. Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #98 on: March 20, 2012, 07:28:03 pm »
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@7.2 Lake R 56%, S 28%
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #99 on: March 20, 2012, 07:28:43 pm »
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CNN is showing a total, but it's dominated by the Lake early votes cited by JJ.
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