north carolina

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

That seems wishful, and I don't see any basis for the claim beyond intuition, but best of luck on it.

Uh, wouldn't my hatred for Romney and Obama counterbalance each other?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

I think you're underestimating the hatred that the South feels for Obama

The South was solid Democrat and not that long ago either.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

That seems wishful, and I don't see any basis for the claim beyond intuition, but best of luck on it.

Uh, wouldn't my hatred for Romney and Obama counterbalance each other?

Maybe it's not wishful -- I guess it doesn't matter -- but I just don't see what evidence is leading you here.  Like I said, we have a pretty OK analogy in Huckabee in 2008, and this just didn't happen.  Also, the idea that the Republican Party base will get less unified as we head into General Election season, based on primary cleavages, just seems outright bizarre to me.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

I think you're underestimating the hatred that the South feels for Obama

The South was solid Democrat and not that long ago either.

Wasn't that mostly based on segregation, though? And anyway, I meant Obama personally, not the whole party.

[Vasall des Midas]

A vaguely bellcurvey poll result. Those are not common. Poll results being, after all, sociological phenomena.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Wasn't that mostly based on segregation, though? And anyway, I meant Obama personally, not the whole party.

No, there are historical reasons for democrat support in the south - see what happened with Jimmy Carter. It's not just segregation.

Goes all the way back to Jackson and Jacksonian economics - the NE lobby has historically been the counterweight to the rural interests in the South. The democrats being the party of the urban areas is a very recent innovation - if you go back to the 19th century, it was the republicans that were the urban party, and the party of the rural areas was the democrats.

Now the urban rural split is pretty much 100 percent backwards - with republicans dominating rural areas and democrats urban areas.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Goes all the way back to Jackson and Jacksonian economics - the NE lobby has historically been the counterweight to the rural interests in the South. The democrats being the party of the urban areas is a very recent innovation - if you go back to the 19th century, it was the republicans that were the urban party, and the party of the rural areas was the democrats.

Like with the Populists?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Yes, like William Jennings Bryan and his folks.

[True Federalist]

Romney's got to worry about shoring up the south - the states that are likely to go for him are Obama's weakest states. Romney being weak among the South puts South Carolina, GA, Tennessee and Alabama in play, and possibly Mississippi. I expect Obama to sweep the south vs Romney.

No.  Unless Romney implodes even worse than I fear he will, there is no way he loses South Carolina, Alabama, or Mississippi.  All three states are highly polarized so any national swing will be muted in these three states.  Putting Tennessee as only lean GOP is optimistic for Obama but not as ludicrous as Obama sweeping Dixie.  Georgia's the only one of the five you mentioned that it reasonable that Obama might have a shot at, but if Georgia is a tossup, Romney loses the election anyway.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

So...Southern Republicans are going to stop voting Romney, but only once General Election season starts, because they support Santorum now, and because they're suddenly going to remember they're Jacksonians this autumn?  And thus Alabama = lean Obama?

really, good luck on this man.

[GM Griffin]

Wasn't that mostly based on segregation, though? And anyway, I meant Obama personally, not the whole party.

Goes all the way back to Jackson and Jacksonian economics - the NE lobby has historically been the counterweight to the rural interests in the South. The democrats being the party of the urban areas is a very recent innovation - if you go back to the 19th century, it was the republicans that were the urban party, and the party of the rural areas was the democrats.

Now the urban rural split is pretty much 100 percent backwards - with republicans dominating rural areas and democrats urban areas.

And ended with LBJ economics and the idea that economic fairness applied outside of the Southern American Anglosphere. The old Democratic Party of the South lost the ideological battle to Northern Democrats who managed to shape the modern Democratic Party. Southern Democrats were never tolerant or liberal, but were economically progressive and aware of their actual interests. When the parties separated their economic and social messages and realigned them in polarity, most chose social issues over economic ones. You still have some Dixiecrats who vote straight D all the way up the ticket, but most punch Democratic ballots for local and state candidates only at this point.

I'm fairly certain there will be very few defections in this cycle from R to D in the South, even with Romney.

[jmc247]

If Romney can't pick up North Carolina in the general he is done. I think he has a good shot of winning it in the primaries though.