French legislative election 2012

[Colbert]

just for fun (and 'cause i'm addict to make maps...) : the national assembly IF the results of the legislative would be the same as the 1st round of the presidential, and IF the voting methodology would be 100% proportionnal.

A funny assembly, IMO

Don't you think so ? ^^

[rob in cal]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

[big bad fab]

A minority government with PS/EE-LV/MoDem, probably.

Back to the 4th Republic

[big bad fab]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue.

Blame the utter fascination of socialists for the little Greens whom they are so afraid of, just because they make great gains in European and regional elections, as usual.

[Colbert]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

[Peter the Lefty]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

Lol I guess that's why Hollande doesn't want full PR and only wants a bit of it? 

[Californian Tony]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

Lol I guess that's why Hollande doesn't want full PR and only wants a bit of it? 

None of the two big parties want PR (for obvious reasons), nor does Bayrou. Bayrou, however, was a bit more serious in his proposal for a share of PR, whereas the two big parties have promised it at every elections and immediately forgotten about it once elected. It is probably a way to court green (for the left) and FN (for the right) voters.

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, Ayrault is the PM as of today, and his new cabinet is mainly moderates.  Fabius is foreign minister, Moscovici is Finance Minister, and Mountebourg is Industry minister.  Aubry was completely left out.  She was offered a super-ministry of education, youth, and culture, but she didn't want to be in the government if she couldn't be PM.  Seems like the bad blood isn't really behind her and Hollande after all. 

What puzzles me is, why give a guy who opposed EU membership the foreign affairs portfolio?  I mean, Aryault seems like he'd be a much better pick for that.  Fabius could be finance minister.  And Aubry could be PM.  Or even if her as PM is out of the question, then you could just give Fabius his old job back.  Seems like it would make a lot more sense. 

[Senator MaxQue]

Oh, great.

Right what Socialists needed.

A crybaby which pout in its corner because it didn't got the biggest toy of the store.

[Hashemite]

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

[Californian Tony]

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

Hell yes !!!

[Bro-mentum]

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

I'm ridiculously interested, but I'm afraid I'm not able to provide something similar in return.

[Jens]

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)

[Colbert]

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)

me too, that's the best election blog

but really, as french, you could write it in french TOO

[rob in cal]

Looking forward to it.

[Andrea]

Am I right in thinking that the deadline to present candidates expired this evening??

PS, Greens and Front de Gauche have failed to reach an agreement to present single candidates in constituencies where FN could beat the Left into third place. Basically PCF and PG wanted a certain number of winnable seats, Greens didn't want to concede too many constituencies they have already assured and the PS didn't want to give away too many winnable areas to parties that poll less than half of them.

[Colbert]

poll institutes seems on strike :/

[rob in cal]

IFOP with new numbers today, looks pretty much unchanged, with parties of the right with a small lead over the combined left, which I suppose equals a socialist victory.

[DL]

The parties of "the right" only have a lead if you are counting the Front National as part of "the right". The FN will refuse to withdraw any of its candidates before the second round and that will set up three way fights in every single seats where the FN had over 15% in the first round (i.e. most of them).

[Hashemite]

The parties of "the right" only have a lead if you are counting the Front National as part of "the right". The FN will refuse to withdraw any of its candidates before the second round and that will set up three way fights in every single seats where the FN had over 15% in the first round (i.e. most of them).

The last part of that comment is pretty stupid, so I won't bother answering it or else I'll get angry again. "National" polling for these elections already piss me off enough...

Anyway, you people would do better to read my predictions: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153783.0

[Colbert]

as usual, the result of this legislative will depend ONLY of turnout level.

High : 60 % of chance for left to lose
low : 100 % of chance for left to win

[big bad fab]

The left can't lose.

I agree with Hash on the fact that national polls aren't really accurate, but they at least give us a general trend and it's really bad for the UMP at the moment.
It's worse than 1997 for the UMP. In the 1st round, of course.
The 2nd i sanother thing: maybe if the "pink wave" is too high in the 1st, some rightist will GOTV and make a "correction" in the 2nd round.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Ipsos:

50.0% Right (35% UMP, 15% FN)
46.5% Left (31% PS, 8% FdG, 6% Greens, 1.5% other extreme left-wingers)
  2.0% MoDem
  1.5% Others

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_barometre_leg_v1.pdf

[big bad fab]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

As I've said one week ago, all this will have to be reassessed after the 1st round and when we'll know all the candidacies (which should be declared before Tuesday night, on the 12th of June).

[Californian Tony]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.