French legislative election 2012

[Andrea]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

yup, she is. I forgot her in the cut and paste

[big bad fab]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

[big bad fab]

If the UMP candidate Mourrut doesn't drop in Gard-2, the best chance of victory for the FN will be Vaucluse-3, where Panzermiss (Big Daddy's grand-daughter) is a candidate.

And do you know why ? Because the socialist candidate, who has zero chance to be elected, is staying in the race...

[Californian Tony]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.

[Hashemite]

I can't really blame the PS candidate in Vaucluse-3, considering the UMP incumbent is basically a frontiste in UMP clothing.

[Andrea]

Valerie Trierweiler apparently gives her encouragement to Falorni on twitter (Courage à Olivier Falorni qui n'a pas démérité, qui se bat aux côtés des rochelais depuis tant d' années dans un engagement désintéressé).

If the UMP candidate Mourrut doesn't drop in Gard-2, the best chance of victory for the FN will be Vaucluse-3, where Panzermiss (Big Daddy's grand-daughter) is a candidate.

FN asks UMP to withdraw from Gard II and in exchange they would drop out in Gard III


in Saint Denis, PS withdraws against Buffet. Same thing for the Green against François Asensi.
Jean-Pierre Brard to withdraw too (along with no hoper FG candidate in constituency I and VI) to leave PS candidates alone.
The local federation has asked Patrick Braouezec to stay in the race in the second constituency even if the agreement asked him to drop out.

[You kip if you want to...]

Valerie Trierweiler apparently gives her encouragement to Falorni on twitter (Courage à Olivier Falorni qui n'a pas démérité, qui se bat aux côtés des rochelais depuis tant d' années dans un engagement désintéressé).

LOL, France.

[Californian Tony]

Now, I don't get it. Good news, but still wut ?

[Marcus Aurelius]

You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(

[Californian Tony]

You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(

Welcome to the forum, Zanas !

I can't agree with you but... if you claim she is that hot you need to post a picture.

[Andrea]

Perpignan-Rivesaltes: FN withdraws

[Marcus Aurelius]

http ://www .marianne2.fr/photo/art/default/957793-1132498.jpg?v=1339357951

(remove the spaces, the forum won't let me post a link cause I'm a noob apparently )

That, from political standards, is pretty hot.

Such a pity her head is so full of sh**t...

Don't get me wrong, I'm a leftie, FG activist, but you've got to admit some things

[politicus]

Tought I would help you out..

Compared to how good looking many French women are, how is that hot? And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

[Californian Tony]

Indeed. When you have Duflot, Vallaud-Belkacem and Filippetti, who needs her ?

[Andrea]

Vaucluse-5: FN drops out to stop the Left. Marine doesn't seem to approuve it

Aisne-1: the PS candidate didn't drop out even if his national party told him to do so and support Dosiere

[Marcus Aurelius]

Wow wow wow wow wow !

I must have a thing for blondes cause I still prefer that to Duflot or Filippetti (though I could follow you on Vallaud-Belkacem...)

BUT

that's not in any way political

AND

I want her politically dead, as soon as possible.

We seem to be among educated people here, let's try not to put words in each other's mouths

Also, I made a list of 92 "swing" circonscriptions that might be worth following on next Sunday. I'll post it here shortly.

[Californian Tony]

Great ! We already have two great constituency forecasters (Fabien aka big bad fab and Gaël aka Hashemite), so a third one is more than welcome to spice things up.

BTW, Duflot is definitely the best.

[Hashemite]

MMLP is definitely quite hot, but she has that weird Le Pen grin/nose/eyes which would remind me of Grand-Daddy every time. On the other hand; Duflot, Filippetti and Vallaud-Belkacem are all very hot, as is Sylvia Pinel.

Not sure I would qualify as a "great" predictor. My predictions were rather bad.

[Californian Tony]

Not sure I would qualify as a "great" predictor. My predictions were rather bad.

Can you tell us a bit more ? What kind of places did go against your predictions, and on which direction ? I'm sure you're exagerating, anyways.

And you still get to rectify your predictions for the 2nd round.

[Sibboleth]

Ah, the internet.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Here are the first ones.

Legend :

Département-n° constituency (T means triangulaire) (potential surprise winner with forecast vote percentage with my tambouille ) Famous candidate if there is one

I've taken big bad fab's last updated map (on his French-speaking blog) into account as to who would be a surprise winner in each constituency. Therefore, it may not seem a surprise to you, and it may even be an incumbent. G means gauche, that is left, D means droite, that is right. I'm not putting the third party in triangulaires if it is irrelevant as to who will win.

If you have (G48), it means the right still has a good shot at winning this seat, since I'm projecting 48% in the runoff for the left, but some reasons make me think (media exposure, local situation, massive mobilization or demotivation on either side, good or bad vote transfers on eather side, and so on...) that it's still winnable for the left, and would be a noticeable achievement.

Some of these constituencies could achieve or unachieve a department-grand-slam. I'll try to advertise this by displaying for example G-GS if it achieves a left grand slam in the department, or D-GS if it prevents a right grand slam (it will almost certainly never be the other way around...)

Do not hesitate to discuss ! Enjoy !

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS

Oh and one last thing : these are not wishes, these are projections. Well, some are both, and some are not.

[JulioMadrid]

Talking about cute politicians... Here in Spain, we have Maria Gonzalez Veracruz (PSOE)



,

Carme Chacón (PSOE- a bit too old, if you ask me)



and, definitely, Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo (PP), who has been disappeared (politically speaking) since 2008:



That's my essential contribution to this thread, LoL.

___

Oh, and what a First Lady France has... What a jerk1! She'd better had shut up, now PS will have to demonstrate they're united against the right (which is false).

[Marcus Aurelius]

After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places...

[big bad fab]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.

I play the moral card, because the PS doesn't stop playing it.
But we'd better ask for a statement from our Présidente, I think


Zanas, I look forward to your own totals, indeed. Thanks for joining us here also Even though I'm fed up with all these leftists

On Ain-1, it's really razor-thin, I agree. On Ain-2, the UMP has a margin, even in a triangulaire and there will be some "vote utile" from FN to the UMP.

On Aisne, I don't know how you reach such a total for the left. Sure, the FN voters are more leftist here, but still. And small far-left candidates, all the more with their current very low results, won't transfer well to the PS, anuwhere.

As for Alpes-Maritimes, it's the same thing. Beware of FN transfers, which are higher here than in Aisne or even Moselle, for the right. What is more, the "divers écologistses" are often, in the South-East, some rihgtists or far-rightists disguised, just to gather votes and then public money Their voters are more like Bardot than Jadot So they don't qualify exactly in the "left" column. On the other hand, Ginésy is an old man. But I think he's able to still make it without too much problems.

Bouches-du-Rhône-1: I must concede it's more a hope than a real prediction But I also remember that Masse is part off the "system" and that Vichnievsky is opposed to him and that Boyer may appeal to the FN more than usual.
In the 15th, I think there is a lil' advantage for the UMP.
In the 12th, I must concede the simple calculus is against the UMP, no problem. But it's my guts here that tell me that there will be some vote utile for the UMP. Still, I'm a more than careful man and I think I'll change my prediction Well done, my friend

On Calvados, all the votes for the DVG won't transfer to the Green and with enough votes from DVD and FN, the UMP should win.

On Charente-Maritime, Bussereau will win in the 4th (good transfers from both the MoDem and the FN for him; the FN is more bourgeois and rural there) AND in the 1st

On Côtes-d'Armor, Le Fur is surprisingly resilient and he can make it, for the same reasons as Bussereau in a way.

On Côte d'Or, my transfer calculus gives me a lil' advantage for the right. We are here with a bourgeois MoDem and a FN from rural conservatives.


Please don't derail the thread with (admittedly nice) photos. Please.

[big bad fab]

After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places...

On Doubs, it's really on a par, but probably with bad transfers from the FN to the UMP. I still think it will tilt towards the UMP in the end, but I'm very weak to argue...

On Eure-et-Loir, I've already answered on my blog. Right territory, I think Gorges will make it with 4 or 5 votes

On Eure, I hope you'll be right , but unfortunately, Morin has an appeal even towards FN voters locally.

On Gard-2, Collard won't make it: there is a roof that FN can't break, I'm sure.

On Gironde (I'm from Bordeaux, you know ), I just can't stand the right might lose everything... Foulon isn't a good candidate (he isn't even a good baker any longer ) but I think he can win in what is now a pure tossup.

On Hérault, always the same explanation: some "vote utile" from the FN voters. But I acknowledge I'm weak here.

On Indre-et-Loire, Briand has a good appeal towards FN voters (who are broadly rural or exurban here). He can win, I'm confident.

On Jura, there is a small gap when you apply the usual transfers. And Pélissard is a very well entrenched man locally.

On Loire-Atlantique, it can't be entirely for the left And, when I calculate transfers from FN and MoDem, it's OK for the UMP candidate.

On Manche, in both the constituencies, there are some rebellious minds in the countryside currently, but FN, DVD and Le Rachinel voters will transfer well to the UMP in the end, I think.

On Marne-1, it's razor-thin, but I think transfers will be good for Robinet.

On Meurthe-et-Moselle, I rather wish than predict a defeat for Morano But I also think she is behaving in a far excessive way, even for her traditional voters... And given the swinging past of this constituency...

On Loiret, my heart bleeds... It's really very tight in these 3 constituencies, but I think there is a slight advantage for the right in the 1st and 2nd. I'm weaker on the 6th and still hesitating...