Current polling, Obama vs. Romney

[5280/East California]

Thread title is wrong. It says 'current polling', not pbrower's limited selection of current polling.

It should be pbrower's biased polling or how he feels it 'should' be.  Pick a few polls that he likes and modifies to his liking.

[mondale84]

Thread title is wrong. It says 'current polling', not pbrower's limited selection of current polling.

It should be pbrower's biased polling or how he feels it 'should' be.  Pick a few polls that he likes and modifies to his liking.

Obama is going to win 50 states + DC, so shut up and stop trolling.

[5280/East California]

Thread title is wrong. It says 'current polling', not pbrower's limited selection of current polling.

It should be pbrower's biased polling or how he feels it 'should' be.  Pick a few polls that he likes and modifies to his liking.

Obama is going to win 50 states + DC, so shut up and stop trolling.

I laugh at that statement, try again.

[pbrower2a]

After the freakish recall election involving Scott Walker is over there will be plentiful polls of Wisconsin. Just wait a month or so. Then Wisconsin will be like other states instead of the focus of political attention by everyone with an axe to grind..

 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney could be beating Obama by 2 points nationwide and I bet the map would still look like that.

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin surprises me. Yesterday PPP had Obama ahead by just 1% and today a university poll has the race tied. Sure Wisconsin wasn't a given for Obama, but I didn't expect it to be this close at this point.

I have heard that the GOP is running a fear campaign... and that people may fear that pollsters are often fakes spying on the political preferences of Wisconsin voters to determine which ones can have even more to fear after employers find out who opposes Scott Walker. Even if private employers have no statutory right to fire people for their political expressions off the job, they can make life miserable.

Sure, it is mostly word-of-mouth, but for many people who know what is expected of them the 'safe' response to any pollster is "I stand for Scott Walker!" What they do in the voting booth may be vastly different.

At this point I am tempted to disqualify any Wisconsin poll due to the weird political climate. 

That is so wrong.  Some Employers might for the first time ever begin to mention the effects of tax/regulation policies on the business.  The vast majority remain apolitical in the workplace.  Whereas the fear mongering (false info) and intimidation tactics employed by the unions have been jaw dropping (and counter productive).  So, maybe you are projecting the Union behavior onto employers??   

[pbrower2a]

Counter-intuitive poll in Tennessee.  It does come from a well-respected university (Vanderbilt), and we get few polls from Tennessee. Romney up 1 (42-41).

Tennessee used to be the most liberal state in the South except for Florida. Huge number of undecided respondents. If it is returning to its pre-2000 pattern, then Tennessee bodes ill for Mitt Romney.



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Counter-intuitive poll in Tennessee.  It does come from a well-respected university (Vanderbilt), and we get few polls from Tennessee. Romney up 1 (42-41).

Tennessee used to be the most liberal state in the South except for Florida. Huge number of undecided respondents. If it is returning to its pre-2000 pattern, then Tennessee bodes ill for Mitt Romney.



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

This is more credible, and I am going with it (registered voters)

Sunday, May 20, 2012
Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey
Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

    Mitt Romney 47% (42%)
    Barack Obama 40% (39%)

Survey of 756 registered voters was conducted May 2-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-vanderbilt-tennessee-2012.html

This bodes ill for Republicans nationwide. Tennessee is nearly a sure thing for any Republican against President Barack Obama, but I can now imagine the state going by high single digits against him, which is a huge improvement from 2008. I can also imagine the Republicans losing a House seat or two from Tennessee.

[shua]

What's your excuse?

[Iosif]

What's your excuse?

Tourettes.

[pbrower2a]

No surprise here in Oklahoma (62-27 in favor of Mitt Romney). Nobody needs argue about accuracy here:



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I am using 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, PPP, Obama up 8 -- no change. Arizona (P) and Florida (Q) should be more interesting tomorrow.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina needs to go blue.

[pbrower2a]

Survey USA, North Carolina. Romney up 1. Note what I said about Florida a few days ago when the state went grom a 1-point lead for Romney to a 1-point lead for Obama.



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[BaldEagle1991]

Tennessee used to be the most liberal state in the South except for Florida.

I never knew that. I've always thought that was one of the most reddest states.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.wcax.com/story/18579959/poll-shumlin-would-win-gubernatorial-race

Vermont:

Any surprise here? President Obama is ahead by about 30% in Vermont. You have to read down because the focus is on a gubernatorial race. At this level (see Oklahoma for the mirror image) precision is of little importance.



under 4%  light [20% saturation]
4.00- 9.99% medium [40% saturation]
10% dark [60% saturation]

Blue -- Romney leads in a current poll. Green -- McCain won in 2008 and no subsequent poll
Red -- Obama leads in a current poll.  Gray -- he won in 2008 and no subsequent poll.
White -- tie (there was no exact tie in 2008).
Yellow -- I don't believe anything.

I use 4% as the dividing line because that is the usual margin of error in a credible poll.

[zorkpolitics]

Time to flip FL to Romney.
Quinnipiac:  Mitt Romney (R) 47%
                   Barack Obama (D-inc) 41%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida

[Tender Branson]

You need to change AZ as well to Romney, because Rasmussen showed a 9-point lead.

And the upcoming PPP poll with it's 46-31 GOP sample won't be very favorable for Obama either.

[milhouse24]

It looks like Romney can actually win this thing. 

[AmericanNation]

It looks like Romney can actually win this thing. 

nail down 1) NC, 2)FL, 3)VA, 4)OH... it's like clockwork. 

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

It looks like Romney can actually win this thing. 

nail down 1) NC, 2)FL, 3)VA, 4)OH... it's like clockwork. 

You're forgetting that Obama will still have 272 EVs. Even with all four of those, Romney will still need one of CO/NM/NV/IA/NH, which are all looking solid Obama at this point.

[Reaganfan]

It looks like Romney can actually win this thing. 

nail down 1) NC, 2)FL, 3)VA, 4)OH... it's like clockwork. 

You're forgetting that Obama will still have 272 EVs. Even with all four of those, Romney will still need one of CO/NM/NV/IA/NH, which are all looking solid Obama at this point.

Yeah, thanks for being late on that. I just spent 15 minutes staring confused at how Romney loses while picking up Indiana, Nebraska CD, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia AND Ohio. Jesus.

[cope1989]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

[hopper]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

I think Romney is still going to win Arizona and has a 50/50 shot to take Florida. I agree he will lose CO, NV, and NM.

In 2010 the Republicans still won 38% of the Hispanic Vote. The mistake that was made by Romney was he ran to the far right on the issue of immigration alienating Latino's.

From 1992-2004 the Republicans mainly lost Electoral Votes in the Northeast and Illinois and CA. In 2008 they did lose states that they previously won(easy pick-ups) as you said(NC, IN, VA, and NV.)

[milhouse24]

Romney aint gonna win based on the sheer demographic mountain he has to climb. We are entering an era of Democratic presidential dominance based solely on the growing number of minority voters. Why do you think Democrats have dominated in most presidential elections since 1992? States that used to be easy GOP pickups are becoming increasingly out of reach because of rising minority populations.

Romney can try to make inroads with these voters, but he's certainly not going to win hispanics, for instance, after his party based their entire election strategy in 2010 on bashing and scapegoating them. And don't try to tell me that there is a difference between legal and illegal hispanics. Even most of the legal hispanics found the attacks on illegal immigration disgusting.

Things will change of course. After these minorities become more assimilated they will begin to split more between the parties, but it's not happening for a while. I wish Romney luck trying to win Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and even Arizona. But I think he's going to hit a wall with these voters that he can't break through.

You forgot to mention 2000 and 2004 when Bush won most of the Hispanic vote. 

Besides, the Hispanic voters are over-estimated since many can't vote since they are not citizens.