Home 2012 Election Results Election Info Weblog Wiki Search Email Site Info Store

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2013, 10:21:55 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Poll
Question: Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?
Barrett by single digits   -13 (14.6%)
Barrett by double digits   -4 (4.5%)
Walker by single digits   -62 (69.7%)
Walker by double digits   -10 (11.2%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Who will win Wisconsin's 2012 gubernatorial recall election?  (Read 2322 times)
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2191


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« on: May 26, 2012, 12:07:26 pm »
Ignore
Whoops, messed up the poll options there last time Tongue

Unfortunately I'm thinking option 3 is likely
Logged
bore
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 880
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2012, 12:13:45 pm »
Ignore
Walker, but slightly closer than the polls say, so 3.
Logged
Senator Napoleon
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11567


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.
Logged
Quote from: bgwah on April 20, 2013, 12:46:53 am
The only thing that is certain is that he's a douche! What he will infract is uncetain.
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1944
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2012, 02:15:49 pm »
Ignore
I think Barrett will win by the skin of his nose, probably within a percentage point.
Logged
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5703
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.13, S: -7.13

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2012, 03:15:46 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 4
Logged


My evolution:
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13
Fuzzy
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3647
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question.  
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 03:24:10 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »Logged
My avatar is as dark as my soul.
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2902
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2012, 03:24:10 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 1 to 2 points.
Logged


Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
Senator Napoleon
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11567


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2012, 03:28:54 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?
« Last Edit: May 26, 2012, 03:31:35 pm by Jmfcst Napoleon »Logged
Quote from: bgwah on April 20, 2013, 12:46:53 am
The only thing that is certain is that he's a douche! What he will infract is uncetain.
Ray Goldfield
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 414


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2012, 03:34:34 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 5 or so.

The bloody Democratic primary ended Barret's chances. Walker's base is energized and united.
Logged
Emperor SJoyce
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6534
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.35, S: -10.00


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2012, 03:37:31 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 03:28:54 pm
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.
Logged

Vote SJoyce for Emperor. It's Finger Lickin' Good.

Quote from: windjammer on April 17, 2013, 05:38:19 pm
And for Sjoyce, sorry but your -10 on social issues, it scares me!
Senator Napoleon
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11567


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2012, 03:43:09 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: SoEA SJoyceFla on May 26, 2012, 03:37:31 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 03:28:54 pm
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.

No, that was Walker +1.
Logged
Quote from: bgwah on April 20, 2013, 12:46:53 am
The only thing that is certain is that he's a douche! What he will infract is uncetain.
Emperor SJoyce
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6534
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.35, S: -10.00


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2012, 03:52:07 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 03:43:09 pm
Quote from: SoEA SJoyceFla on May 26, 2012, 03:37:31 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 03:28:54 pm
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on May 26, 2012, 03:22:32 pm
Quote from: Jmfcst Napoleon on May 26, 2012, 12:18:09 pm
Walker by 8-10. Lol at anyone voting Barrett, way to be a complete party hack. There is no chance, accept it.

Not necessarily, Barrett has been closing the gap according to some recent surveys, and Wisconsin has given pollsters a bit of trouble in the past.  So while Walker may have the advantage as of now, a Barrett victory is not out of the question. 
Barrett released a few internals showing him within 5 points so that turnout doesn't collapse completely but all the unaffiliated polls have Walker ahead by even more. There is simply no way for Barrett to come out on top. When was the last time Barrett even led in a poll? February?

April 29th, according to Marquette.

No, that was Walker +1.

In their LV poll; their RV poll was Barnett +1.
Logged

Vote SJoyce for Emperor. It's Finger Lickin' Good.

Quote from: windjammer on April 17, 2013, 05:38:19 pm
And for Sjoyce, sorry but your -10 on social issues, it scares me!
Senator Napoleon
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11567


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2012, 03:59:38 pm »
Ignore
Yeah but there is no reason to consider a RV poll when presented with an LV poll. The point is that Barrett doesn't have a chance and never did. This was a stupid idea and a terrible strategic move for Democrats. Walker will get a newer and stronger mandate allowing him to go on a right wing rampage and better challengers than Barrett will be scared to run against him in 2014.
Logged
Quote from: bgwah on April 20, 2013, 12:46:53 am
The only thing that is certain is that he's a douche! What he will infract is uncetain.
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12612
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2012, 04:03:40 pm »
Ignore
Walker by high single-digits -any higher, and Romney will begin to look at him as a serious VP contender. 
Logged
Summary of My Political Beliefs
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13398
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -8.17

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2012, 10:23:36 pm »
Ignore
Walker, and we'll be very embarrassed.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7642
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2012, 10:27:05 pm »
Ignore
What Frodo said.

Logged
+7.35, +3.65

Quote from: Peternerdman on December 31, 2012, 03:34:54 pm
Never thought I'd say this, but I'm praying for another black-yellow majority, and for the SPD to get shattered.  It's exactly what it deserves.
President Marokai
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16073
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2012, 10:42:00 pm »
Ignore
Walker, and the entire effort has been something of an embarrassing waste. I understand the impulse that led to it, but Democrats and Unions have made the classic mistake we always make; expecting voters to persistently (and consistently) hold onto grievances and actually take political action and vote based on an issue they purport to be upset by.

We expect too much of the voters sometimes, and this is going to be our result. All involved really should've known better, and waited until 2014, where they could've simply stoked the fire and used it as a talking point until then, keeping the outrage just at a simmering with those who cared the most, rather than try to keep the entire state caring enough to actually recall him over it. The recurring amnesia amongst the "swing" and "moderate" voters was never going to let this happen from the word go.
Logged

Quote from: 後援会 on August 26, 2012, 12:29:57 am
I do not want my children to be integrated into a pro-homosexual discourse
Senator Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10984


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2012, 01:35:14 am »
Ignore
Walker is favored, though I wouldn't count out Barrett just yet. We haven't seen a poll in almost a week, and Walker has failed to increase his margin despite the air barrage. If the Democrats can mount a successful GOTV campaign, they can counter Walker's air superiority and win.

I'd give Walker a 2/3 shot of winning.
Logged
Quote from: 31: A New Bushie on April 30, 2013, 01:33:54 pm
I wouldn't touch the Carnival cruise ships with a 10 foot pole.  Too many things have gone wrong in the last ~6 months for me to even consider it anymore.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27969
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -5.39

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2012, 01:47:13 am »
Ignore
Walker by about 3 or so.

Didn't Walker overpoll in 2010 already ? Polling 9% ahead of Barrett and getting only a 6% win ?
Logged
Pacific Justice IBDD
1236
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1174
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2012, 12:47:49 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 5
Logged

"I'm not a hawk or a dove. I just don't want my country to be a pigeon."-  Sen Henry Jackson
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."- Arabian Proverb
Senator Ben
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29791
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 0.35

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2012, 12:51:04 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 3-5
Logged
Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2104
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -6.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2012, 03:14:15 pm »
Ignore
Walker will win by 1-3%.
Logged
Kevin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4560
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 04:35:46 pm »
Ignore
Walker by 3-5+% but I wouldn't be surprised if Barrett won given that Democrats seem to do better in close WI elections then the Republicans.
Logged
Chareth Cutestory
fezzyfestoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8340
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2012, 10:41:22 pm »
Ignore
I'm going full-on wishful thinking and saying it'll be Barrett by about 2-3%
Logged
Pirate lawyer
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8408
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 2.96

View Profile WWW
« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2012, 12:11:25 am »
Ignore
Walker by 2 or 3.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
Forums Directory