Would a SYRIZA victory mean the end of the Euro?

[Jacobtm]

I don't believe SYRIZA explicitly supports Greek pulling out of the Euro. If I understand correctly, they hope to renegotiate the conditions agreed to by past Greek governments without actually exiting the Euro.

The problem comes with Merkel, who says that she will not accept a renegotiation of those conditions.

Let's see how good your seer-saying is. Would a SYRIZA victory by default mean a Grexodus from the Euro, and by extension, the end of the Euro?

[Californian Tony]

The only thing that can bring the end of Euro is the utter stubbornness of Merkel and other North European leaders.

A SYRIZA victory might mean the Euro ends sooner than it would have under ND, or it might mean that Euro will be saved as Merkel&co eventually understand that they can't shove austerity down Greece's throat anymore.

[Beet]

SYRIZA victory certainly makes it far more likely that Greece will be ejected from the Euro, compared to the current chances. And given how many commentators are talking about it as an inevitability already, well... if Greece wants to remain on the Euro, ND is the clear choice. Merkel is already making noises towards compromising with ND. It will be much easier for her to do so politically than to do the same with SYRIZA. Just think of all the Franzl's out there. In their mind, SYRIZA makes no effort to change.

[The Mikado]

Does the secession of Greece from the Eurozone really kill the Euro, though?  I've noticed a lot of people arguing this and I don't think it's necessarily true: the Euro could die, but I don't think it's preordained that it wouldn't survive Greece leaving.

[ingemann]

Does the secession of Greece from the Eurozone really kill the Euro, though?  I've noticed a lot of people arguing this and I don't think it's necessarily true: the Euro could die, but I don't think it's preordained that it wouldn't survive Greece leaving.

It could, but it would be a unlikely worst case scenario. But giving in to Greece would kill the Euro, simply because it would remove the incitement to behave responsible.

[Speaker Dereich]

Does the secession of Greece from the Eurozone really kill the Euro, though?  I've noticed a lot of people arguing this and I don't think it's necessarily true: the Euro could die, but I don't think it's preordained that it wouldn't survive Greece leaving.

Agreed. I'd say Europe is in a much better position to handle the Grexit now then it would have been a year ago. Italy and Ireland are in a way better position now, and Portugal and even Spain have pulled themselves more from the brink. Not to say that it wouldn't be bad, but I doubt it'll be anything like the trainwreck it COULD have been.

Also, I don't see why Jacobtm and Antonio seem to believe that Merkel is leading a one woman crusade against the Greeks. It's not like the others in the EU and others keeping the Greeks afloat are any less hostile. Just look at Lagarde's comments.

[Beet]

Christine Lagarde supports Eurobonds.

[Swedish Cheese]

No, unfortunatley I'm sure SYRIZA would be wipped into obedience, and even if they refused to cave and got Greece kicked out, the damned thing would still prevail.

Best decission ever made by Swedish voters. 

[Speaker Dereich]

Christine Lagarde supports Eurobonds.

I was more pointing to the sentiment that if Angela Merkel was gone Europe would be a happy place where Greece was supported and growth, whatever that means, would be an easy option to save the Euro with no costs to anyone. The Lagarde comment I was thinking of was from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/25/payback-time-lagarde-greeks

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if EU leaders would more prefer to see Greece slide into the sea then bother renegotiating bailouts for the thousandth time.  

[Swedish Cheese]

I was more pointing to the sentiment that if Angela Merkel was gone Europe would be a happy place where Greece was supported and growth, whatever that means, would be an easy option to save the Euro with no costs to anyone.

All the more amusing considering one of the major reasons the German people have soured on her government is because she keeps spending their taxpayer-money on bailing-out everyone from Greece to the devil and his aunt. Something the SDP is very well aware of, so the though that an SDP chancellor would change her austerity politics to spending with-out demands is silly.

[Beet]

Christine Lagarde supports Eurobonds.

I was more pointing to the sentiment that if Angela Merkel was gone Europe would be a happy place where Greece was supported and growth, whatever that means, would be an easy option to save the Euro with no costs to anyone. The Lagarde comment I was thinking of was from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/25/payback-time-lagarde-greeks

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if EU leaders would more prefer to see Greece slide into the sea then bother renegotiating bailouts for the thousandth time.  

Growth is always an easy option with no costs to anyone. Contrary to popular belief, the size of the pie is more important than how it is distributed. There is no way that you can divide the pie that will make everyone happy, but you can grow the pie (what is meant by "growth"), and by this not-so magical process by which humanity lifted itself out of the stone age, solve this economic crisis (and all other modern economic 'crises', which in developed countries are one and all, without exception, self-inflicted).

Lagarde is simply saying the Greeks should pay their taxes. I'm sure the EU leaders are terrified of Greece 'sliding into the sea', for it would mean that their own countries would soon follow. Kind of like how it's not good when a mountain climber falls off the mountain, if he's tied to the other 15 climbers.

[Beet]

Examples of real crises:







Examples of prosperous societies engaging in self-inflicted baloney:







See the difference?

[ZuWo]

No, unfortunatley I'm sure SYRIZA would be wipped into obedience, and even if they refused to cave and got Greece kicked out, the damned thing would still prevail.

Best decission ever made by Swedish voters. 

I know of an even better decision voters made with regards to the European Union.  

As to the question of this thread, I believe that SYRIZA would turn into a realistic party if they somehow won the election, which means that they would accept that a certain extent of austerity is necessary at the end of the day. Austerity alone is not the solution to the problems Greece is facing, but it's obvious that the country must aim to have a more balanced budget at some point in the future. These European countries need a debt break and structural reforms.

[Sibboleth]

See the difference?

Well, no... because the potato famine as a disaster was pretty much entirely the product of Liberal ideology...

[True Federalist]

See the difference?

Well, no... because the potato famine as a disaster was pretty much entirely the product of Liberal ideology...

Much more a product of Tory ideology than of Liberal ideology.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

See the difference?

Well, no... because the potato famine as a disaster was pretty much entirely the product of Liberal ideology...

Much more a product of Tory ideology than of Liberal ideology.

Not really; though the entire British establishment of the period was to blame. Al, however, was more accurate the first time.

And to answer the title question, no, but why do people assume that SYRIZA would act "reasonably" when in power and that this is in fact a good idea? If you haven't been paying attention the last four years (at least) have been terrible for reasonableness.

[The Mikado]

And to answer the title question, no, but why do people assume that SYRIZA would act "reasonably" when in power and that this is in fact a good idea? If you haven't been paying attention the last four years (at least) have been terrible for reasonableness.

Agreed, at least to the extent that a quiet, amicable divorce of Greece and the Eurozone due to irreconcilable differences is not a catastrophe some are setting it up to be.  The sky will not fall.

[ingemann]

And to answer the title question, no, but why do people assume that SYRIZA would act "reasonably" when in power and that this is in fact a good idea? If you haven't been paying attention the last four years (at least) have been terrible for reasonableness.

Agreed, at least to the extent that a quiet, amicable divorce of Greece and the Eurozone due to irreconcilable differences is not a catastrophe some are setting it up to be.  The sky will not fall.

At least not for people outside Greece, for the Greeks it will turn very ugly.

[Vasall des Midas]

A Spanish banking meltdown would.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

And to answer the title question, no, but why do people assume that SYRIZA would act "reasonably" when in power and that this is in fact a good idea? If you haven't been paying attention the last four years (at least) have been terrible for reasonableness.

Agreed, at least to the extent that a quiet, amicable divorce of Greece and the Eurozone due to irreconcilable differences is not a catastrophe some are setting it up to be.  The sky will not fall.

I'm not sure I agree with that. It is quite clear that if Greece leaves it will have set a precedent that will be hard to break should Portugal, Spain or ourselves follow them down the mire and that would certainly be the end of the European single currency.

I just don't think that that has much to do with SYRIZA winning the next election except should they win it will cause a flight of deposits which could force their hand. More likely though is short lived and faction ridden ND-PASOK-DRASI government which will complete the ongoing destruction of the country's economy and will not last more than a year - at which point then SYRIZA take power.

[Mr. Morden]

What would a full blown Euro unraveling actually look like?  Since (if I'm understanding this correctly) one can't leave the Euro without withdrawing from the EU altogether, would the end of the Euro mean the end of the EU?  (Which I guess would then probably be followed some kind of rebuilding of the EU through brand new treaties, but without a common currency?)

[ingemann]

What would a full blown Euro unraveling actually look like?  Since (if I'm understanding this correctly) one can't leave the Euro without withdrawing from the EU altogether, would the end of the Euro mean the end of the EU?  (Which I guess would then probably be followed some kind of rebuilding of the EU through brand new treaties, but without a common currency?)

The Euro if it collapse, won't be the first transnational European valuta to collapse, both the Krone/Krona and the Franc started as valutas with 1 to 1 exchange rates between the countries which used them. Both fixed exchange rate collapse around WWI. While the Euro is close, the same would happen here. The different countries would continue to use Euros, but you wouldn't be able to use them in the neighbouring countries, and they would be sold at different rates on the international markets. A Greek Euro would likely collapse and become like the Lira or Drachma, while the value of the German Euro would rise sharply. Some countries may change the name of the valuta, but most would likely just keep it, rather than vaste the resources on changing the name.