why did Byron Dorgan's poll numbers head south so quickly?

[freepcrusher]

he had always been a very popular incumbent and had fallen below 60 percent only twice in his career (57% in 1980 and 59% in 1992). But in 2010, early polls showed him trailing by as much as 20 points.

One thing I've been concerned about is that this is one of many examples that its becoming harder to bs the populace.

[OC]

The high unemployment rate at 9.0 made it very hard for the states of Dakotas and Arkansas to buck the party trend despite Dorgan being in office for so many yrs. Along with the fannie mae crisis and the high unemployment and the high popularity of Hoeven made it quite difficult for Dodd and Dorgan to remain in office.

[Paul Kemp]

Bad hair.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Obamacare. Unemployment wasn't a problem; ND has the lowest rate in the country.

[Vosem]

This thread has been a total failure. Unemployment wasn't the problem (ND, as mentioned has the lowest rate in the country and I believe wasn't even in a recession). Dorgan remained personally popular; he was leading every potential challenger but Hoeven by twenty points. Hoeven was just way more popular. (Speaking of Hoeven, I actually think he could be a dark-horse V.P. pick, if it wasn't for the fact that the Romney campaign has pretty much stated outright they won't pick a darkhorse).

[OC]

In terms of the overall state of the economy Dorgan voted for the bailouts eventhough the GOP members at large in the House were against it. Stephanie Herseth voted against the bailouts and still lost.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Yeah, it was because of Hoeven.

He would've won if he had run again - I think Hoeven would've waited until 2012, and part of the reason he ran was because he knew he'd easily win.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

(Speaking of Hoeven, I actually think he could be a dark-horse V.P. pick, if it wasn't for the fact that the Romney campaign has pretty much stated outright they won't pick a darkhorse).

A mustached vice presidential nominee?

[RodPresident]

Hoeven is one of best presidential candidates that GOP can have in 2016 and he was a very popular governor. 2010 was a very nationalized election and Dorgan saw that he would lose if run.

(Speaking of Hoeven, I actually think he could be a dark-horse V.P. pick, if it wasn't for the fact that the Romney campaign has pretty much stated outright they won't pick a darkhorse).

A mustached vice presidential nominee?

Romney won't put as running-mate one with a better gubernatorial record than him.

[hopper]

In terms of the overall state of the economy Dorgan voted for the bailouts eventhough the GOP members at large in the House were against it. Stephanie Herseth voted against the bailouts and still lost.

Yeah Herseth voted against Obama Care the second time it came around for a vote in the US House too.

I liked Dorgan even though I am no Democrat. The guy was/is very knowledgeble about different politcal issues. Thats rare in Congress nowadays. Voting for the bailouts is a catch 22 by him but voting for ObamaCare. Don't get why he voted for that. Maybe because he is from the same state as Kent Conrad and Conrad being the Head of the Senate Budget Committee had something to do with it.

Hooven having a 80-85% approval rating as ND governor probably sealed Dorgan's fate in hs political career though in the end.

[MilesC56]

This is why Conrad shouldn't have retired; he didn't even have to worry about running against Hoeven.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

That was when matched against John Hoeven, who was Governor at the time and eventually won the seat.  Sen. Dorgan would have easily defeated any other Republican.

[greenforest32]

This is why Conrad shouldn't have retired; he didn't even have to worry about running against Hoeven.

Were there any polls for ND 2012 with Conrad? He probably would have an easier time than Heitkamp and his retirement statement makes me think he wants a Republican Senate:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/01/18/133018456/sen-conrad-d-n-d-wont-run-in-2012

"Conrad, the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said in a statement that it was more important that he 'spend my time and energy' trying to focus on solving the nation's budget woes than be distracted by another campaign.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obamacare. Unemployment wasn't a problem; ND has the lowest rate in the country.

Unemployment wasn't the problem (ND, as mentioned has the lowest rate in the country and I believe wasn't even in a recession). Dorgan remained personally popular; he was leading every potential challenger but Hoeven by twenty points. Hoeven was just way more popular.

IMO, it was a combination of these two.

[technical support]

This is why Conrad shouldn't have retired; he didn't even have to worry about running against Hoeven.

Hopefully the dems will keep his seat

[Former Moderate]

It's just one of those inevitable things. North Dakota is a Republican state, and it won't continue to tolerate Democratic senators forever. Just like Oregon and Rhode Island kicked out decent Republican Senators for solely partisan reasons, so too will ND eventually.