Counterrevolution in Egypt may be imminent

[The Mikado]

So the Egyptian courts overturned the Parliamentary elections and have ordered Parliament to disband pending a new nonpartisan (meaning bad for Muslim Brotherhood) FPTP election (in a country with sky-high illiteracy, that'll favor local notables, and that means figures that did well under the old government).  Meanwhile, SCAF is going to appoint a "Constituent Assembly" to write the constitution, so it will be written by the interests of the army rather than those of the Muslim Brotherhood.  MB is in a bit of confusion over what to do: Morsy didn't condemn the decision and expressed fondness for the army, while Brothers in Parliament (who risk losing their jobs) are vowing defiance.  Will post more as we find out more.

[Beet]

Well, this is a surprise. What was the supposed legal justification for the Court's action?

[Speaker Dereich]

Well, this is a surprise. What was the supposed legal justification for the Court's action?

They claim that the weird party list/FPTP system discriminated against independents and a new all FPTP election has to be held. It really looks like an anti-MB coup though, especially with the reinstatement of emergency law the other day.

Edit: The part slashed may be wrong. I have no earthly idea, as Egyptian election law is uncomprehensable by man.

[The Mikado]

Edit: The part slashed may be wrong. I have no earthly idea, as Egyptian election law is uncomprehensable by man.

You aren't kidding.  Supposedly, they want a new set of elections where half of Parliament would be chosen through FPTP non-partisan races, where obscure local Islamist firebrand can't get name-recognition by running on the Muslim Brotherhood ticket and voters would gravitate to the (old regime) names they know.

[Sibboleth]

In a way - and I don't like typing this - this is almost impressive.

[RogueBeaver]

In a way - and I don't like typing this - this is almost impressive.

Sort of like Algeria '92, but SCAF hasn't completely junked democratic institutions yet. I suspect they and the MB have devised a Pakistani-style plan: military controls foreign/defence policy while MB takes domestic, so long as they don't do anything that would jeopardize Western arms sales.

[The Mikado]

In a way - and I don't like typing this - this is almost impressive.

Sort of like Algeria '92, but SCAF hasn't completely junked democratic institutions yet. I suspect they and the MB have devised a Pakistani-style plan: military controls foreign/defence policy while MB takes domestic, so long as they don't do anything that would jeopardize Western arms sales.

We won't know until after this weekend, but it might be that SCAF struck a deal with Morsi personally, where Morsi throws the rest of the Muslim Brotherhood under the bus.  The MB in Parliament continue to say they're going to resist this (as well they might: they're losing their jobs here), but Morsi has been positive about the move.

Alternately, Shafiq could win and this whole conversation becomes moot.

[London Man]

Mursi has accepted the decision, that's correct.

Agree that what happens this weekend will be vital.

[dead0man]

Well, in some good news....Tribal leaders power is shrinking.  link

<snip>

Her uncle, a prominent member from one of the three main tribes that control most aspects of life in this region, had instructed the clan to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, in Egypt’s landmark presidential poll.

Instead, she voted for Morsi’s archrival, the more moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

“My uncle told us we need to unify the votes for our family, but everybody just chose who they wanted – especially the youth,” said Ali, 21.

Ali’s independence would’ve been shocking here even a year ago, when the orders of clan leaders were law and their subjects fell in line. But Tahrir Square’s infectious rebel spirit has spread to the upper Nile countryside, residents said, making it very difficult these days for tribal leaders to deliver intact voting blocs to the many candidates courting them.

<snip>

[Californian Tony]

Sigh...

[Sheliak5]

Muslim brotherhood, other parties, it doesn't matter. Egypt will still be corrupt and its people still blind.

[Californian Tony]

Muslim brotherhood, other parties, it doesn't matter. Egypt will still be corrupt and its people still blind.

But people should be able to choose their leaders nonetheless.

[Vasall des Midas]

What do they do when the new elections turn out much like the old ones - which is, let's face it, more likely than the opposite barring massive fraud?

[opebo]

What do they do when the new elections turn out much like the old ones - which is, let's face it, more likely than the opposite barring massive fraud?

Yes, it reminds me of the processes at work in Thailand over the last 6-10 years.  But these careful, impressive efforts of the old regime do seem to retard and moderate the movement towards the (seemingly) inevitable populist outcome. 

[ag]

What do they do? when the new elections turn out much like the old ones - which is, let's face it, more likely than the opposite barring massive fraud

, of course.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Oh gosh...

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Sort of like Algeria '92

No, what becomes MB in Egypt is far from what was FIS in Algeria in the early 1990s (what happenned in Algeria in the early 1990s was almost a Sunni equivalent of the rise of the Islamic Republic of Iran). I'd think the impact of the very harsh, tough, nasty, civil war that followed during one decade in Algeria would be part of the things that could be a kind of vaccine all over the Arab world when it comes to those problems. Not saying extremism would be impossible there, extremism can always appear anywhere in the world, and the more you play with fire the more you take risks to be burned, and the SCAF enjoys this game apparently so far, but the legacy of this civil war would be...important, used as a lesson, and beyond Algeria (unfortunately, within Algeria, you never know what such an event could have as consequences in the future, but here we're in Egypt).

That being said, what those glorious guys of the SCAF just did is insane, do they find what happens in Syria cool? Too bad nobody told them Counter-Revolution uses to be a synonym of fail...

With the Parliament dissolved Counter-Revolution would already be here, the result of presidential election would just come as a confirmation, let's just see...

[Mr. Morden]

That being said, what those glorious guys of the SCAF just did is insane, do they find what happens in Syria cool? Too bad nobody told them Counter-Revolution uses to be a synonym of fail...

Just to clarify....was this really a conscious decision by SCAF?  Are we 100% sure of that?  I mean, this is a court order.  Decision came from the judiciary, who are of course sympathetic to SCAF.  Did the judges make this ruling, thinking they were acting in the military's interests, when the military would actually prefer more covert means of retaining their power, a la present day Pakistan?

[Mr. Morden]

SCAF has apparently issued a decree stating that it will hold onto the powers of the legislature for itself, until such time as a new Parliament is elected:

http://tabulasara.blogspot.be/2012/06/new-constitutional-declaration-of-17.html

More importantly for the long term, it's giving itself the power to name a new Constitutional Assembly, and power to veto provisions of the constitution it doesn't like (though the president will also be given such veto power).  If the various parties can't agree on a provision in the constitution, then its fate is decided by the Supreme Court (which I believe was appointed in the Mubarak era).

I guess I would read all of this to mean that SCAF isn't going to try to block the new president from taking office, nor from a new parliament being elected.  But they're going to control the drafting of the new constitution, which means that they'll be able to carve out power for themselves into the constitution.

[Beet]

At this point, the only way to defeat the SCAF, ironically, could be a 1952-style coup d'etat against the generals by some mid-level officers.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

SCAF has apparently issued a decree stating that it will hold onto the powers of the legislature for itself, until such time as a new Parliament is elected:

http://tabulasara.blogspot.be/2012/06/new-constitutional-declaration-of-17.html

More importantly for the long term, it's giving itself the power to name a new Constitutional Assembly, and power to veto provisions of the constitution it doesn't like (though the president will also be given such veto power).  If the various parties can't agree on a provision in the constitution, then its fate is decided by the Supreme Court (which I believe was appointed in the Mubarak era).

I guess I would read all of this to mean that SCAF isn't going to try to block the new president from taking office, nor from a new parliament being elected.  But they're going to control the drafting of the new constitution, which means that they'll be able to carve out power for themselves into the constitution.

Yes, assuming they didn't turn totally insane by some attempts to rig/cancel/do whatever bad things with the presidential elections, hopefully...

But, even if they are fair in the elections and that it isn't their candidate who wins, then the President wouldn't have any constitution, any parliament, and not even the military power, then nothing.

If they think the Street would easily buy something like this, that's rather daring, not to say dangerous indeed.

They really are playing the awkward alchemist game...

[Mr. Morden]

But, even if they are fair in the elections and that it isn't their candidate who wins, then the President wouldn't have any constitution, any parliament, and not even the military power, then nothing.

Right, but the point is that there will eventually be a constitution and new parliament, etc.  There will be a constitution, elections will continue, with (eventually) a new parliament elected on a new system.  If SCAF tried to block such things, and just declared an overt military dictatorship, then there would be Tahrir Square, part 2.....this time with much more violence.

But the drafting of the new constitution will be controlled by SCAF, so they'll be able to carve out for themselves all the power that they want.  The Muslim Brotherhood will presumably be a powerful force in the next Parliament as well (and might have the presidency too), and SCAF will give them just enough power over domestic affairs to keep them from allying with secular liberals to overthrow the system.....always with the implicit threat that if the civilian government steps too far out of line with the power it's been given, SCAF could always stage an overt military coup.

[RogueBeaver]

IOW, they'll follow the Pakistani model.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

But, even if they are fair in the elections and that it isn't their candidate who wins, then the President wouldn't have any constitution, any parliament, and not even the military power, then nothing.

Right, but the point is that there will eventually be a constitution and new parliament, etc.  There will be a constitution, elections will continue, with (eventually) a new parliament elected on a new system.  If SCAF tried to block such things, and just declared an overt military dictatorship, then there would be Tahrir Square, part 2.....this time with much more violence.

Well, it's by no means me to tell Egyptians to risk their life in streets, but it would be rather surprising that they wait and let SCAF comfortably doing their brilliant work...

[Mr. Morden]

But, even if they are fair in the elections and that it isn't their candidate who wins, then the President wouldn't have any constitution, any parliament, and not even the military power, then nothing.

Right, but the point is that there will eventually be a constitution and new parliament, etc.  There will be a constitution, elections will continue, with (eventually) a new parliament elected on a new system.  If SCAF tried to block such things, and just declared an overt military dictatorship, then there would be Tahrir Square, part 2.....this time with much more violence.

Well, it's by no means me to tell Egyptians to risk their life in streets, but it would be rather surprising that they wait and let SCAF comfortably doing their brilliant work...

I'm sure the secular liberals will try something, but are there enough of them to get any results?  As long as SCAF keeps the Islamists happy by letting them ban bikinis or whatever it is they want to do, I assume the secular liberals will be left to protest on their own.

Also, now that we can see that islamists will do very well in elections in Egypt, will the secular liberals have as much enthusiasm for going back to the streets as they had a year ago?