July Jobs Report

[BushKenya]

We are 1 week from the release of the July 2012 Jobs Report?  What do you think it will show?  Will it underperform like the past several months, or will it be a bright spot?  Will it start changing the shape of the race since it will come 3 months 3 days before Election Day?

[Tender Branson]

+171.000 jobs this time I guess (182.000 private, -11.000 government).

Rate = 8.1% (-0.1)

[True Federalist]

While U3 might tick downward, U4 would either hold steady or even tick upward with that sort of jobs number.

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

163k jobs in July, Unemployment rises to 8.3%.

[Secretary Polnut]

163k jobs in July, Unemployment rises to 8.3%.

Which must mean that more people are starting to look for work again...

[Tender Branson]

I did not too badly with my prediction (only the UE rise was disappointing).

[greenforest32]

July 2012 numbers released today: http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

+163,000 jobs
June 2012 revised down from +80,000 to +64,000
May 2012 revised up from +77,000 to +87,000
U-3 unemployment rate +0.1 (rises to 8.3% from 8.2% in June 2012)
U-6 unemployment rate +0.1 (rises to 15.0% from 14.9% in June 2012)
Labor force participation rate -0.1 (falls to 63.7% from 63.8% in June 2012)

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

Credit is due for the fact that nearly 100,000 new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate is still climbing, so that's not good. Very interesting. The September job numbers will be the most important in terms of the election, as the October numbers will be released too close to the election.