Venezuelan Presidential Election 2012

[State Comptroller Atkins]

I don't think there's a thread for this yet so here it is.

The two main candidates are the incumbent President Hugo Chavez of the United Socialist Party and Henrique Capriles Radonski of the Justice First Party.

The election will be held on October 7th.

The two most recent polls show Radonski ahead of Chavez by 48%-44% and 46.79%-46.06%. But polls are considered to be generally unreliable. As the election gets nearer, some will probably suggest a Chavez landslide, others will suggest a neck and neck race and others will suggest a Radonski landslide.

More info here.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't see how HCR wins. If Chavez kicks the bucket before October then the military and Chavez's family will step up and anoint a replacement who gets a sympathy bonus. Plus in the near-impossible event that HCR wins, only Chavez can enforce that outcome. No one else.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

The last Parliamentary election was a tie between PSUV (Socialist Unified Party of Venezuela, Chavista) and MUD (Democratic Unity, Oposition). Venezuela must be the most polarized country of the world and everything turns around Chávez. There's no middle way: you love him or you hate him. This not only occurs in Venezuela: in my country certain people in the left have him mythologized. I'm still wondering what's the "XXI Century Socialism". In conclusion: I don't understand anything. Chávez would be the probable winner, of course.

[Judäischen Volksfront]

The irony is that even without all of his shenanigans, Chavez enjoys genuine popularity and would win handsomely.

[Insula Dei]

46.79%-46.06%.

That just looks sloppy.

[Vasall des Midas]

As long as it's Chavists versus American-Allied Ancien Regime Anti-Chavists, Chavists are certain to win elections in Venezuela on the strength of the opposition's horribleness alone. They'll have to (and have started to) move on to something more describable as Postchavist.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

As long as it's Chavists versus American-Allied Ancien Regime Anti-Chavists, Chavists are certain to win elections in Venezuela on the strength of the opposition's horribleness alone. They'll have to (and have started to) move on to something more describable as Postchavist.

As a candidate HCR is running as a center-left admirer of Lula so, on paper at least, this election offers the country a different choice. His background says otherwise. I really doubt that he isn't a typical right-wing corporatist.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) is very heterogeneous. Together with the old regime parties, AD and COPEI, there are a lot of parties covering all the political spectrum. According with the results of the last legislative election the main parties are:

A New Era (officially center-left or Third Way), the party of the 2006 oposition candidate, Manuel Rosales, who was mayor of Maracaibo and Governor of Zulia. Rosales sought asylum in Peru in 2009 after being accused of missing public funds. He alleged that he was object of a political persecution. Also, he signed the Carmona decree, during the 2002 coup attent, "in a moment of confusion", according with his words.

Justice First, the Capriles party. Officially is centrist and humanist, also social liberal and adscribed to the Christian Democrat Organization of America. The English Wiki says that is a center-right party.

Democratic Alliance, the center-left party of the ancien regime, with Carlos Andrés Pérez (CAP) as starring character, member of the Socialist International.

COPEI-People's Party, the traditional christian democrat party of Venezuela. Also member of that christian-dem Amerian organization and of the Centrist Democrat International.

Patria Para Todos (Fatherland for All), social democrat. The party joined the oposition because of disagreements with the officialist PSUV.

Also Project Venezuela (social christian), Podemos (We Can, social democrat, another party that refused to join PSUV), the liberal-conservative MIN, the marxist-leninist Red Flag, the socialist MAS (Movement Towards Socialism), the party of Teodoro Petkoff, the old left-wing leader who supported Chávez in the past...

It seems a coalition of the ancient regime establishment parties together with the new oposition parties and Chavist dissidents, i.e., an all-together-against-Chávez type of coalition.

[© Tweed the Younger]

stretch run, election is in a week.  the polls look kinda scary but who knows what to believe.

[RogueBeaver]

Chavez, unfortunately, wins by 10-15 IMO.

[ag]

The irony is that even without all of his shenanigans, Chavez enjoys genuine popularity and would win handsomely.

He enjoys genuine popularity within about 1/2 population, and genuine loathing within the other half. Without shenanigans it would have been truly too close to call. Of course, given the degree of administrative control he exercises, Capriles Radonski would, probably need at least, 55% of the actual votes cast to win.

[Vosem]

Radonski, reading about him, is obviously imperfect but he would be truly a massive improvement compared to Chavez. Won't say anything on likelihood of either candidate winning as I am unfamiliar with Venezuelan politics.

[Paleobrazilian]

Chavez will win by about 8%, unfortunately. Public servants are afraid of voting against him because the electronic voting system they'll use is unreliable.

BTW, a few days ago Chavez denounced the American Convention on Human Rights, so in a few months the OAS and the Interamerican Court will have no control on what he does. Freedom of press/speech were already declining, and now there are reports of torture and forced disappearances. Even leftists have to admit the last steps he's taken are worrisome.

[Bacon King]

Oh hey, didn't notice this election had a thread until now!

I've been following it fairly closely; one of my professors is the Director of the Americas Program at the Carter Center who flew down there a few weeks ago and will be back down to lead the Carter Center's "informal" election monitoring.

The polls have been all over the place and are completely unreliable. IIRC over the campaign they've shown everything from a 20% lead for Chavez to a 10% lead for Capriles, so don't expect them to tell you much of anything. For what it's worth, the pollster who did the best in 2006 (Datanalisis) is currently showing 49% for Chavez, 39% for Capriles, with 10% undecided.

Public servants are afraid of voting against him because the electronic voting system they'll use is unreliable.

The electronic system is actually completely reliable and anonymous; independent NGOs and even the opposition itself have acknowledged the system is technically sound. You have to have a valid ID and provide a matching fingerprint for the scanner in order to vote, so there's no risk of "graveyard turnout" or other vote stuffing. The machine's recorded tally of votes is randomized after every voter, so there's no way to connect the fingerprints to the voters. Also, once someone votes, the machine prints a receipt with their selected candidate's name on it, which the voter then places into a secure ballot box so there's paper verification for election officials and other observers to ensure the machines are accurate. Honestly, it's very sound (even more so than most voting machines in the US).

The voting machines themselves are entirely anonymous, but due to the fact that the identity verification stuff is part of the same machine as the voting screen, they have the appearance of not being anonymous at all- I'd guess this design might easily be an entirely intentional form of intimidation. I do hope the opposition is educating their supporters who are at risk of possible retribution that they have nothing to fear.

Without shenanigans it would have been truly too close to call. Of course, given the degree of administrative control he exercises, Capriles Radonski would, probably need at least, 55% of the actual votes cast to win.

Although Chavez's record isn't exactly spotless, I think his ability to pull shenanigans here are actually fairly limited. For the first time ever, the opposition has enough manpower and coordination to cover the entire country with poll monitors (117,000 poll monitors to cover Venezuela's 14,000 voting stations), who will make sure the official poll workers aren't doing anything illegal; they'll do an independent nation-wide tally of both the initial results as well as the paper count once the polls close. Also, monitors from UNASUR will be serving as official international observers. If there's any tampering with the results, it'll become public knowledge immediately- and the government is well aware of that, so I'm sure they'll be treading lightly.

The only thing that really worries me is the recent announcement from Venezuela's military leadership that they'll be actively "patrolling" the elections with 139,000 soldiers. I'm not sure what exactly the "patrolling" entails, but that's enough troops to station an entire platoon outside of every voting site in the country, with plenty more left over. I'm worried there could be some massive voter intimidation if every Venezuelan has to pass through an armed military checkpoint to get to the voting booth. Let's hope that's not the case, though.

At any rate, whatever happens, definitely hoping for a Capriles victory here next week.

[© Tweed the Younger]

The irony is that even without all of his shenanigans, Chavez enjoys genuine popularity and would win handsomely.

He enjoys genuine popularity within about 1/2 population, and genuine loathing within the other half. Without shenanigans it would have been truly too close to call. Of course, given the degree of administrative control he exercises, Capriles Radonski would, probably need at least, 55% of the actual votes cast to win.

this is unsubtantiable, and even if it were it's no different than what goes on in the US with disenfranchisement of poor and minorities.

[© Tweed the Younger]

At any rate, whatever happens, definitely hoping for a Capriles victory here next week.

well aren't you a red blooded American.  who believes in God and Senator Dodd.

[ag]

The irony is that even without all of his shenanigans, Chavez enjoys genuine popularity and would win handsomely.

He enjoys genuine popularity within about 1/2 population, and genuine loathing within the other half. Without shenanigans it would have been truly too close to call. Of course, given the degree of administrative control he exercises, Capriles Radonski would, probably need at least, 55% of the actual votes cast to win.

this is unsubtantiable, and even if it were it's no different than what goes on in the US with disenfranchisement of poor and minorities.

What has definitely been substantiated is that government is very willing to use administrative pressure to make sure those dependent on it vote the line. What has also been repeatedly substantiated is that roughly 1/2 of the population hates Hugo Chavez - like they'd hate devil reincarnate or their mother's murderer. This amply showed up, say, in the last parliamentary election, where the two sides got equal number of votes - had it not been for a one-sided gerrymander, it would have been a hung parliament.

Whether they count right or not is a harder question. Chavez is no Putin, so he may loose (and even accept the loss, at least temporarily or tactically - there's been precedent, at least on a referendum). But the system is quite subordinate to him and there is ample reason to believe the head of the main electoral body would follow his orders - if these come.

Anyone who says "it's the same as in the US" does not know what s/he is talking about. There is a crucial difference - the United States has genuinely split control of the government. So, here and there nasty things may and do happen - but nobody can order sh**t to happen nationwide. Venezuela has been under one fat greasy thumb for a long time now. When opposition wins local office, the office gets castrated to the point of irrelevance. Whatever shenanigans happen, only one side has the power to do that. This is, in fact, the most important difference in the world.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Anyone who says "it's the same as in the US" does not know what s/he is talking about. There is a crucial difference - the United States has genuinely split control of the government. So, here and there nasty things may and do happen - but nobody can order sh**t to happen nationwide.

I don't believe that, I reject it on principle.  there is traded power between (D)s and (R)s, who are backed by a fluid but otherwise exactly the same coalition of interests.  the policy differences between the alleged two factions are vanishing to zero.. this is quite unlike the situation in a place like VZ, where actual skin remains in the game: IMF, World Bank, and privatization/expatriation of profits on the one hand, and a genuine populism (how genuine can always be argued) on the other.

and I was not talking about the "occasional abberation" such as a Florida 2000 -- I'm talking about the systematic exclusion of minorites and the underclass through the decriminalization of black and urban poor life, which excludes millions from the nominal political system.

Venezuela has been under one fat greasy thumb for a long time now. When opposition wins local office, the office gets castrated to the point of irrelevance. Whatever shenanigans happen, only one side has the power to do that. This is, in fact, the most important difference in the world.

quite blind stuff -- the 'fat greasy thumb' has had its grip for a decade or so, the bloody hand that preceded it lasted centuries.

[ag]

Do you also reject the law of gravity on principle? I suggest, you should.

[JulioMadrid]

Not that it matters, but...

I'm officialy supporting Capriles Radonsky!

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

No, Julio, it's refreshing to see that some of the (more reasonable) leftists have dropped their stupid love of Chavez.

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

I hardly love Chavez, but obviously a left-wing/populist "authoritarian" regime is better than a right-wing/neoliberal authoritarian regime.

Though obviously it's hard to not to find the guy lovable. Look at him!

[Bacon King]

I hardly love Chavez, but obviously a left-wing/populist "authoritarian" regime is better than a right-wing/neoliberal authoritarian regime.

It's worth noting that Capriles, if elected, would still have to get along with a National Assembly that's 58% Chavista.

Though obviously it's hard to not to find the guy lovable. Look at him!

:3

[© Tweed the Younger]

my personal favorite.  I was at this game June 9 1999

[Peter the Lefty]

I don't see how anyone who considers him/herself a social democrat/democratic socialist can love Chavez.  The guy takes a sh**t on democracy every day, abuses human rights, and allies himself with theocratic dictators.  And frankly, given that Capriles is a supporter of the welfare state, he's far preferable to an idiot who seems like a combination of Huey Long and Moammar Gadaffi.