Elections coming up

[London Man]

April elections:

Djibouti Presidential April 8, 2005   
Central African Republic  Presidential (Second Round)  April 10, 2005       
Portugal EU Referendum April 10, 2005           
Dominica Legislative April 11, 2005       
Northern Cyprus  Presidential April 17, 2005           
Saudi Arabia Northern Municipal (Stage Three) April 21, 2005           
Andorra Legislative April 24, 2005
New Zealand  Parliamentary April 30, 2005
Togo Presidential April 2005 

http://www.electionguide.org/2005.htm

[Notre Dame rules!]

Sen. WMS,

Good analysis.

According to DW-TV,  it was a little messier than the popular uprising in Ukraine, though not terribly so, and it appears the the military wasn't eager to put its neck out for the former Pres.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out.

[WMS]

Sen. WMS,

Good analysis.

According to DW-TV,  it was a little messier than the popular uprising in Ukraine, though not terribly so, and it appears the the military wasn't eager to put its neck out for the former Pres.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out.

Thanks. I give lots of credit to my Internet sources on this one, especially Stratfor. I added a little bit myself, especially to the more general Freedom House picture, but I mostly just assembled some sources. That bit on DW-TV sounds interesting.

There's a thread over in International Politics on Kyrgyzstan as well.

[frenger]

Sen. WMS,

Good analysis.

According to DW-TV,  it was a little messier than the popular uprising in Ukraine, though not terribly so, and it appears the the military wasn't eager to put its neck out for the former Pres.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out.

Thanks. I give lots of credit to my Internet sources on this one, especially Stratfor. I added a little bit myself, especially to the more general Freedom House picture, but I mostly just assembled some sources. That bit on DW-TV sounds interesting.

There's a thread over in International Politics on Kyrgyzstan as well.

What do your starfor sources tell you about the Transnistria elections?

[ilikeverin]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

[Notre Dame rules!]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

[WMS]

What do your starfor sources tell you about the Transnistria elections?

They only do elections if they're geopolitically important, but let's see:

FSU: Mutual Aid Efforts Too Little, Too Late?
March 17, 2005 23 30  GMT

Summary

The breakaway regions of the former Soviet republics -- Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh -- appear to be trying to unify themselves in the interest of self-preservation. Their efforts are likely too little, too late, however, since the West's political push to lay claim to Moscow's former territories has rewritten the region's strategic calculus.
...
Pressure on Transdniestria has increased dramatically since Moldova's March 6 parliamentary elections reinstalled a legislature to be led by Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin that has dedicated itself to a westward political shift.
...
Transdniestria was born out of a 1992 civil war in Moldova in which Moscow supported predominantly-Russian Transdniestria against a weak Moldovan central government. Russia has consistently failed to live up to its promises to withdraw its troops from the region since then and has used the region as leverage against the Moldovan government. Both Russian and Ukrainian businessmen and government officials have profited from the criminal activity that dominates the region's economy as a result of its unrecognized status and its standoff with Moldova, which have prevented Transdniestria's economic development.
...
Transdniestria is in the worst position of all. It is now encircled on both sides by two countries that are beginning a full-on shift to the West, and both of which support Transdniestria's reabsorption into Moldova. Moscow currently has a garrison of 2,500 troops in the region, but they are now under serious pressure to leave. With the Moldovan and Ukrainian governments suddenly strongly encouraging their departure -- along with every major relevant Western organization and the United States -- it is only a matter of time before Russian troops leave Transdniestria.

Though Transdniestria could have little time after that, unlike the others, it has a particularly interesting card to play. Russia's trunk gas pipeline to Europe runs through Ukraine, and then through Transdniestria before reaching Moldova. If the Transdniestrians become desperate enough and decide that Moscow is no longer supporting them, they could decide to switch it off. This maneuver would attract anger from Moscow to Madrid, with many prominent stops in between. Such a move would likely not only be brief, it probably would represent the last nail in Transdniestria's coffin.

This is an ideal illustration of how these regions' moves to assert independence and possibly work together will ultimately attract more enemies rather than new friends. In reality, there is little the regions can do for each other beyond offering words of support. Transdniestria likely will be part of Moldova again before the year is out...
...

And that's pretty much it. It probably won't matter, since Transnistria's days are numbered. But judging from The Freedom House Report on it, perhaps it's just as well.

Transnistria (Political Rights/Civil Liberties)
2004  6  6  NF
2003  6  6  NF
2002  6  6  NF
2001  6  6  NF
2000  6  6  NF
1999  6  6  NF
1998  6  6  NF
1997  6  6  NF
1996  X  X  XX
1995  X  X  XX
1994  X  X  XX

1991 Seceded from Moldova over concerns over Moldovan-Romanian unification; with lots of Russian support
1991-1992 war; 1992 cease-fire
1991-current: Authoritarian Republic; President Igor Smirnov;
highly corrupt and repressive; de-facto one-party rule
2000 parliamentary elections; 2001 presidential elections; both
sets not at all free and fair; "Smirnov was declared the victor,
in some areas winning by a considerable margin. In the northern
region of Kamenka, for example, he received 103.6 percent of the
vote, indicating significant ballot-stuffing."
*May not survive 2005 w/Ukraine and Moldova becoming pro-Western*

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

[Sibboleth]

Norway has elections in the autumn. Looks like Labour are going to be back in charge again.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

[WMS]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

Here's the site which has the most up-to-date information. But it's in Somali.

[Jake]

Good, all I need now is a Somali dictionary

[Notre Dame rules!]

Great!  Where's that English/Somali dictionary when  you need it?

[Notre Dame rules!]

What are the latest polls in North Rhine-Wesphalia?

[Notre Dame rules!]

Somaliland Election countdown...

0 days, HOORAY!

*goes and looks for any sites that might have ...anything...*

Don't keep us in suspense, who won?

I haven't been able to find anything yet. If I do, I'll be sure to let you know.

Still haven't found anything...in English. There's a site or two in Somali which appear to be more updated, but nothing I could make out.

Still nothing?