Indonesian presidential election

[Tender Branson]

The world's biggest Muslim democracy will vote on Wednesday.

Indonesia has 250 Mio. people, of which ca. 190 Mio. will be eligible to vote in the election.

Turnout will likely be very high, in the 80-85% range, which means about 150 Mio. people will vote (20 Mio. more than in the US presidential election).

...

Latest polls indicate that Indonesia's "Obama" is losing his once huge lead in the polls and some polls have even shown him trailing his opponent.

The "Economist" (which backs "Obama") argues that Jokowi is running mostly on his anti-corruption image and popularity as Gov. of Jakarta, while actually having a - quote - "naive and amateurish" election campaign (which makes him the total opposite of the actual Obama, who had a very skillful campaign operation). The "Economist" also notes that Jokowi lacks the charisma of the real Obama.

They still endorsed him for the election over his opponent, because of his anti-corruption policies/governing, modesty and focus on education and positive approach to foreign investors, while his opponent represents "the past".

My prediction (2-person only, excl. invalid/blank votes):

51.4% Jokowi
48.6% Prabowo

Indonesia's "Obama" barely pulls it off ...

[Tender Branson]

This is a real race now, but the latest Jakarta Globe poll shows that Jokowi's lead is increasing a bit again:

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[Tender Branson]

The Jakarta Globe presents a rough guide to the issues that matter:

Prabowo/Hatta-ticket:

Economic policy: Collaborate with the private sector and foreign investors; limit foreign investment; annual GDP growth of 7 to 10 percent; reject nationalization; anti-privatization; anti-trade liberalization; infrastructure investment (railways).

Political reform: Strong state control and centralization; fight graft; 30 percent quota for women in the cabinet.

Social: Build a national identity, fight intolerance.

Education & health care: State-funded 12-year compulsory education; require graduate doctors to serve in poor areas.

Energy: Review foreign investment in energy; encourage domestic investment; biofuel research; limit exports; pursue limited protectionism.

Defense: Better pay for police, soldiers and veterans.

Foreign policy: Cooperate with both China and Japan.

Jokowi/Kalla-ticket:

Economic policy: Gradual reduction of fuel subsidy; infrastructure investment (ports and airports).

Political reform: Fight graft in judiciary and tax office.

Social: End rights abuses; investigate past rights violations; combat religious intolerance.

Education & health care: Emphasis on behavior and ethics in schools; state-funded health care for the poor.

Energy: Limit energy imports; keep mineral export ban.

Defense: Increase military spending to 1.5 percent of GDP.

Foreign policy: Expand economic and naval ties with neighbors.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/platform-politics-presidential-candidates-stand-key-issues

[Tender Branson]

Those platforms don't sound that much different...

Yeah, both seem to be populist, pro-welfare, protectionist and nationalist (Prabowo probably slightly more so).

Here are more issue differences from the 3rd TV debate:

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[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls:

Jokowi wins by a ca. 5-point margin.

[Tender Branson]

I have found at least 3 exit polls which have the Jokowi-Kalla ticket winning with 52-54%.

Prabowo/Hatta refuses to concede though and says "their polls have them winning".

Official results will be announced in ca. 2 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

There are at least 8 exit polls and 4 of them have the Jokowi-Kalla ticket ahead and 4 have Prabowo/Hatta ahead:





Let's see how this turns out ...

[Tender Branson]

There are now 8 quick count/exit polls which show a Jokowi-win and 4 that show a Prabowo-win.

However, this article suggests that the quick count/exit poll agencies that show a Jokowi-win have been more accurate in past elections than the agencies showing a Prabowo-win (and who are owned mostly by wealthy TV station owners which have close ties to him).

The article also says this:

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[Tender Branson]

A 6-point lead is probably high enough for Prabowo to accept his defeat.

[Tender Branson]

The official results will be released in 3 hours.

Jokowi now has already more votes than Obama in 2008 (ca. 71 million).

His lead is 53.2-46.8 right now.

[Tender Branson]

Prabowo goes sore-loser and withdraws from the process and aims to challenge the election at the highest court:

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28400752

[Tender Branson]

The official result:

53.15% - 70.997.833 votes - Joko Widodo & Jusuf Kalla
46.85% - 62.576.444 votes - Prabowo Subianto & Hatta Rajasa

Valid votes: 133.574.277 (98.98%)
Invalid votes: 1.379.690 (1.02%)
Total votes cast: 134.953.967 (100.00%)

Registered voters: 193.944.150
Turnout: 69.58%

http://indonesiasatu.kompas.com/read/2014/07/22/20554461/kpu.pastikan.pasangan.jokowi-jusuf.kalla.pemenang.pilpres.2014

Clickable map with results by province:

http://news.detik.com/pemilu2014/realcountpilpres