U.K Local By-Elections Thread

[Sibboleth]

More results... and all with comedy turnouts! (mind you that's the case for about 99% of local by-elections...)

Labour held a seat on Dover Town Council, while the Tories gained two seats off the Liberals on Oswestry Town Council (interestingly the LibDems have been in almost total freefall in Oswestry over the past year. First sign of trouble was when they were beaten by the Tories for the 2nd County Council seat in the Oswestry division (Labour easily won the 1st but couldn't find a candidate for the 2nd) and since then they've been losing Town and Borough seats to the Tories at quite a rate... in one of the wards up last night (both two-horse races) the Tory topped 70%...)

[Rural Radical]

The Lib dems did badly in Whitchurch (North Shropshire) too. In 2003 they put up District candidates who did nothing.

[Ben.]

Maybe the Right of the Tory party (voters that is ) voted BNP in Derbyshire. The Norman Tebbit wing of the party are clearly pissed off with Cameron (a la the Tony Benn wing of the Labour party wass with Blair ten years ago).

As a rule the BNP mostly draws its votes from Labour voters, a mix of the disaffected and frustrated white working class voters (who Labour have struggled to get to the polls with the decline of traditional industries) along with a fair slice of aspirant lower middle class and blue-collar Tories. 

It’s hard to imagine hard right Tories voting for the BNP. Generally the BNP are pretty much old fashionedly socialist on most economic issues, which won’t sit well with your average Tory, no matter how disaffected – though I don’t doubt that what’s left of the old blue collar Tory vote could be won over by a BNP campaign.

[Sibboleth]

As a rule the BNP mostly draws its votes from Labour voters, a mix of the disaffected and frustrated white working class voters (who Labour have struggled to get to the polls with the decline of traditional industries) along with a fair slice of aspirant lower middle class and blue-collar Tories.

That's the media stereotype; and it's wrong. Most BNP voters (at least in the Pennines) tend to be middle class and live in areas that are largely working class and with a large ethnic minority (usually Kashmiri) population living nearby. The main motivation to vote BNP isn't *hate* as such, but *fear*; whether that's fear of a Kashmiri moving next door, fear of losing your aitches or fear of asylum seeks/etc. raping your daughter (false rape allegations have become a hallmark of BNP campaign tactics, btw).
In addition to that you have the fringe racist skinhead etc. element, but there aren't many of that sort of person anywhere (although in a close local election a few votes is enough...). They can sometimes (but not very often) do well on a run down estate if there's just been a riot or something like that.
It's significant that the BNP very rarely get anyone elected when it's not a by-election or an all-out (ie; all seats in the ward) election. The can often sneak a few councillers in via all-out elections and there's already a classic pattern in BNP by-election gains; turnout falls and the Labour vote falls with the turnout. The Tory vote collapses. The BNP suck up the ex-Tory vote and win an upset due to the low turnout. Been seen everywhere from Blackburn to Heanor (although it didn't work in that case), but especially in Burnley.
Just to add to this, but in Bradford MBC one of the best BNP wards is Worth Valley (just south of Keighley and based around Haworth; this is not exactly a working class ward) and another good ward is socially mixed Queensbury (where they made the mistake of running two candidates rather than one; as a result neither got in), while over the moors in Burnley their best wards tend to be suburban wards added to the Borough in 1974 (in fact the ones to the east of the town were Tory strongholds until the BNP came along; as was Worth Valley come to think of it).
It's certainly true that most BNP activists are little more than skinheaded thugs, but it's wrong (and actually quite dangerous; the BNP is trying to inflitrate certain local Tory associations) to assume that the same is true of their voters. A lot of people up North learned that the hard way.

It’s hard to imagine hard right Tories voting for the BNP.

It might be hard to imagine, but it's certainly happening.

Generally the BNP are pretty much old fashionedly socialist on most economic issues,

No, generally they are completely ignorant of economic issues and don't care about them (beyond a vauge belief in something similer to the economic structure of Fascist Italy and a deep seated hatred of Trade Unions. Oh and a belief that most corporations are run by Jews...). They certainly don't campaign on them... with the exception of...

which won’t sit well with your average Tory, no matter how disaffected –

...at local level the BNP is almost always strongly opposed to new developments and growth; if the council wants to build a new industrial or trading estate, if a developer wants to build a new row of houses, if planners want to build a new road or if a retail giant wants to open a new supermarket, the BNP will almost always be strongly opposed.

[Ben.]

Any thoughts on the local elections in May?

For my own two cents worth - while I think modest improvements for Labour in some cities (Newcastle and Liverpool have some seats up this time around do they not?) are likely it still seems likely that in London and other areas the party is heading for a sizeable hammering (as happened in ’68), what will be most interesting is what effect Cameron will have and weather the Tories make good on the recent chatter that they will be able to make gains in cities outside of London such as Manchester where they are rumoured to feel quite buoyant at the prospect of winning over sufficient white collar voters in order to get back onto the council though the LibDems will no doubt be desperate to avoid this.

Thoughts?  Also does anyone have a list of all the Councils up for election and their current status?       

[Sibboleth]

Any thoughts on the local elections in May?

Quite a few
In general I think we'll see some very stark regional differences (and that's certainly what local by-elections are indicating) and some nice high profile gains for both Labour and the Tories (Labour has a chance of taking Birmingham, Liverpool and Newcastle, while the Tories have a chance to net some solid gains in London and maybe kill off the LibDem threat in the Southeast. Eastleigh may well be *the* District Council to watch ).

For my own two cents worth - while I think modest improvements for Labour in some cities (Newcastle and Liverpool have some seats up this time around do they not?)

All the MBC's have a third of their seats up; there's three seats to every ward (with a few exceptions, like the Craven ward in Bradford MBC) so that's an election for every Metro ward. It's like that every local election year, except for when there's a rewarding (in which case all wards are up; and that's how the BNP were able to squeak a few councillers in Bradford with support levels in the teens in some of the wards in question).

are likely it still seems likely that in London and other areas the party is heading for a sizeable hammering (as happened in ’68),

I don't think anything on the level of 1968 is at all likely; that wasn't a hammering, it was a wipeout. No councillers in Birmingham. Lost the Scotswood ward in Newcastle (!!!!). And have you seen a summary of the Islington results (and this is back when Islington was still largely working class)?
1968 made the Tory wipeouts in the mid '90's look mild...
...but yes, Labour will do very badly in much of the Southeast and parts of London. There might be some exceptions (we *should* be able to retake Thurrock), but those exceptions are demographically, socially and politically very different to the rest of the area. In much of the Southeast Labour will poll like it did in local elections in the late '70's... I think that Herts will be especially bad.

what will be most interesting is what effect Cameron will have and weather the Tories make good on the recent chatter that they will be able to make gains in cities outside of London such as Manchester where they are rumoured to feel quite buoyant at the prospect of winning over sufficient white collar voters in order to get back onto the council though the LibDems will no doubt be desperate to avoid this.

If they can get back onto Manchester City Council then the LibDems will be f***ed to put it bluntly... same goes for Newcastle (I think they will be targetting a Gosforth ward. Maybe one in Jesmond as well?). And o/c Labour will be *delighted*...

Also does anyone have a list of all the Councils up for election and their current status?   

I think so. Wait a sec...

[Sibboleth]

I (finally) have got my hands on last night's results... and it was quite a bad night for the LibDems, who lost what had been a safe-ish ward in Monmouth (Dixton with Osbaston) and a ward in the Test Valley district in Hampshire (St Mary's) to the Tories. There was some consolation for them in Bodmin, where they gained a seat off the Independents.
Labour lost a Glasgow ward to the SNP (as you all already know), with the Tories and LibDems both polling comedy %'s (1.5% and 2.8%), but gained a ward off the Independent group in the Derwentside district of County Durham (taking over 75% of the vote).
The LibDems also lost a seat on Newquay Town Council to the Tories. Like anyone of you care

[Sibboleth]

Doesn't seem to have been much of interest last night. LibDems gained a seat off the Tories in North Wiltshire on a low turnout and that's about it. Oh and a by-election in Powys (Churchstoke) was contest by two candidates. Both were independents.

[Sibboleth]

A good night for Labour; we gained a seat in Sefton off the LibDems on a massive swing. Tories gained a seat of the Indies in Bucks. Other than that no changes... but some interesting swings; Labour came close to upsetting Plaid in what is normally one of the safest Nat wards in Caerphilly, the Ratepayers held a ward in Neath-Port Talbot (with what looks to be, I don't have % figures yet, a reasonable result for Labour), the Tories just about held off some sort of Indepedent in Craven and easily splatted a LibDem challenge in Honiton (in fact the LibDems came closer to finishing third than winning) and held onto two other marginals (over the LibDems) in Devon. Not all bad news for the LibDems though; they came close to upsetting the Tories in one of the most middle class wards in Darlington and did pretty well in a Kenilworth ward.

[Sibboleth]

Not heard anything yet. I'm pretty sure that the Craven ward in Bradford MDC is up tonight (o/c it shouldn't be in the same authority as Bradford, it belongs with Skipton), not that they'll be anything of interest there. They weigh Tory votes in that ward...

[Sibboleth]

Seems as though Craven wasn't up last night (or if it was, PA haven't heard the result yet).
Anyways the Tories gained two seats last night... well... sort of... in South Kesteven they gained a seat off Labour... but... the Tory was actually unopposed. To make things stranger all three seats in the ward were unopposed last time round; and went one Tory, one Labour and one Indy. Can't think of any conclusions to be drawn from that, but I do wonder when the last time that ward (Market & West Deeping in case anyone be interested) actually had a contested election.
And it was a similer (if slightly less weird) story in Colwyn Bay where the Tories gained a seat off Plaid; Plaid didn't run a candidate, but this time round the ward wasn't uncontested; the LibDems put a candidate up.
In Staffordshire Moorlands the Tories just about held onto th Werrington ward in a seriously surreal race; they polled just over 25% of the vote. Labour, the LibDems and the BNP came close to winning (in that order).
And finally some good news for Labour; they held the very marginal (in local elections) Coundon ward in Wear Valley with only a microscopic swing from the last election.

Interesting fact; Labour still hasn't lost a seat in a contested local by-election in England or Wales this year, and it's March already. Will have to check to see when this was last the case...

[Sibboleth]

Craven is up today. And although I'm not sure which other wards are up and where, I'm expecting the kinda-not-losing streak to end tonight (call me a pessimist if you want) as it has to sooner or later. Still, a good start to the year all told.

[Sibboleth]

A bad night for the Tories saw them lose three seats; in Dacorum Labour seems to have stopped collapsing as they picked up a socially mixed (but more working class than the Herts average) ward on the outskirts of Hemel Hempstead. The National Front took 7%; the highest I've seen them poll anywhere for quite a while (although even if you add all the NF votes to the Tories, Labour would still have won; albeit by 0.5%). Turnout was high for a local by-election (40%).
In Bedfordshire the LibDems trounced the Tories in a commuterland ward, winning by a solid margin in a ward that the Tories had won by a solid margin last election. And down in Somerset, the Tories lost a Frome ward to the LibDems on another high swing.
Other results last night were interesting; predictably the Tories won their usual Craven landslide with Labour doing pretty well (bearing in mind which ward this is) as well. Not a good result for the LibDems.
Labour won a convincing win in Middlesbrough and the LibDems failed to pick a seat of the Indies in Redruth. Better news for them elsewhere in Cornwall as they gained a seat in Bude off Mebyon Kernow (who didn't run a candidate).

[Rural Radical]

Was the Shrewsbury result (Monkmoor) the last Labour loss in a by election ?

[Sibboleth]

Was the Shrewsbury result (Monkmoor) the last Labour loss in a by election ?

No; the last loss in a contested English/Welsh by-election was (as far as I can tell) the Chadsmead ward in Litchfield (lost by 11 votes to the Tories).