French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://francepolitique.free.fr/sondages.htm

Thanks

[Umengus]

sofres poll (01/17-18, After the Ump congress)

Besancenot: 3% (-1)
Laguiller: 2% (-1,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 31% (-3)

Bayrou: 9% (=)

Sarkozy: 35% (+6)

De villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 13% (-1)

Did not express: 23%

Sarkozy: 52% (+4)
Royal: 48% (-4)

Sarkozy: 85%
Le Pen: 15%

Royal: 78%
Le Pen: 22%

Don't forget, it's a sofres poll...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Besancenot: 3% (-1)
Laguiller: 2% (-1,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Yet more MoE fun on the far left!

[Hatman 🍁]

Royal is making headlines here after her comments supporting Quebec sovereigny

I think I will have to withdraw my support for her in the first round.

[Umengus]

Royal demands that rumours cease about her relationship
Jan 23, 2007, 10:00 GMT


Paris - French Socialist Party presidential hopeful Segolene Royal demanded Tuesday that rumours about her longtime relationship with party chief Francois Hollande cease.

'It is important that the rumours stop, that we are left in peace,' she told Europe 1 radio. 'Every day we hear something new about our relationship. The French people are tired of this intrusion into our private lives.'

The 53-year-old Royal and the 52-year-old Hollande have been a couple for 26 years and have four children, though they have never married.

Since Royal has been nominated as the Socialist presidential candidate, many political observers have wondered how this would affect their relationship, since Hollande reportedly also had coveted the nomination.

In addition, their relationship has been the source of some discord in her electoral campaign.

When Hollande declared that if the Socialists come to power this year, they will roll back a tax decrease enacted by the conservative government on those earning more than 4,000 euros (5,200 dollars) per month, Royal replied, 'I'm not in favour of raising taxes.'

And she suspended her spokesman, Arnaud Montebourg, last week after he said jokingly on a television talk show, 'Segolene Royal has only one flaw - her partner.'

These missteps helped fuel discussion, both in the media and on the internet, about a romantic rift and even separate apartments for the two.

One right-wing blog, Jakouille la Fripouille, declared 'Segolene Royal and Francois Hollande have separated,' and went on to castigate 'the bogus Royal-Hollande couple' for 'treating the French people like imbeciles' by pretending they were still together.

On Tuesday, Royal denounced what she called 'internet manipulations by certain parliamentarians' of the UMP party of her rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/news/article_1250343.php/Royal_demands_that_rumours_cease_about_her_relationship

Royal would ( have a "relation" with the ex-boss of Renault, louis schweitzer, and francois hollande with a socialist mp.

[Umengus]

Ségolène Royal Slammed for Quebec Comments
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 10:58:00


Québec - Royal Freedom?
 
 

Ségolène Royal is once more at the centre of controversy abroad after proclaiming that she was in favour of Quebec independence. In a radio interview with André Boisclair, head of the Independence Movement in Quebec, she claimed they shared common values - including freedom and the sovereignty of the province.



The Ottowa government has condemned Ségolène Royal after she declared herself in favour of the independence of the province of Québec. In a radio interview with André Boisclair, head of the independentist Parti Québecois, Royal said that the two shared common values, i.e. "freedom, and the independence of Québec".

The issue of independence has been a thorn in Canada's side for many years. Two referendums have been held, in which les Québecois rejected independence. The first vote, in 1980, saw independence rejected by a relatively large majority. The second, however, was much tighter.

Since General de Gaulle's famous declaration "Vive le Québec Libre" in 1967, Québec and France have often had a frosty relationship, with leaders in Québec and Canada annoyed at unwarranted French intervention. Parallels have been drawn today with that famous speech; Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that Royal's declaration was "out of place", and added "Experience teaches that it is highly inappropriate for a foreign leader to interfere in the democratic affairs of another country".

Stephen Dion, head of the Liberal federalist Party in Canada, added that "She does not understand, you do not interfere in the affairs of a friendly country, you do not wish for the dismantling of a friendly country. Canada does not wish for the dismantling of France and France certainly does not wish for the dismantling of Canada".

Québec PM Jean Charest equally rapped Ségolène Royal for her comments, claiming that Ségolène Royal had never even visited Québec, after turning down an official invite. He went on to add that only Quebeckers can vote on whether the province should become independent or not.

Ségolène Royal today hit back by claiming that she not interfering, saying: "I am neither interfering nor indifferent. As in any democracy, the sovereign people will decide, as they are free." When asked if she would quote de Gaulle in saying "Vive le Québec libre" she responded: "I wouldn't go that far".


reactions@paris-link.com

source: http://www.paris-link-home.com/news/121/ARTICLE/1638/2007-01-23.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Haha! Still, unless France's attitude towards Quebec has changed a lot in recent years, I can't really see that hurting her with voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Haha! Still, unless France's attitude towards Quebec has changed a lot in recent years, I can't really see that hurting her with voters.

Changed my opinion of her though

[Umengus]

Haha! Still, unless France's attitude towards Quebec has changed a lot in recent years, I can't really see that hurting her with voters.

she gives the impression that, on foreign affairs, she's not fit for the job. One gaffe is not enough to hurt her campaign but one gaffe+one gaffe+one gaffe+... = failure in May (or april).

[Umengus]

ifop (lol) poll

01/18-20

Laguiller: 3% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3%

Voynet: 3% (=)

Royal: 28% (=)

Bayrou: 12,5% (+0,5)

Le page (right-green candidate): 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 32,5 (-0,5)

De villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 11% (+1)

Royal: 49% (+1)
Sarkozy: 51% (-1)

Bayrou: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

Bayrou: 50%
Royal: 50%

[Umengus]

Bva poll

01/22-23

Laguiller: 4% (+1)
Besancenot: 7% (+3)
Buffet: 3% (=)

Voynet: 0,5%

Royal: 27% (-8)

Bayrou: 13% (+5)

Le page: 0,5%

Sarkozy: 32% (+1)

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 10% (+1)


Royal: 48% (-3)
Sarkozy: 51% (+2)

Ipsos poll
01/19-20

Laguiller: 2% (+0,5)
Besancenot: 3,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3,5% (+0,5)

Voynet: 2 (+0,5)

Royal: 29% (-3)

Bayrou: 11% (+1)

Sarkozy: 32% (-1)

De Villiers: 3% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)


Royal: 48% (-2)
Sarkozy: 52% (+2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for the sheer hell of it, I decided to check if in 2002 Le Pen won any Cantons in the second round; he didn't (unless I missed one). His highest % was (I think) 37% in St Gilles (Gard department).

[afleitch]

Royal down 8? Ouch. Pleased to see Bayrou do well though

[Umengus]

Just for the sheer hell of it, I decided to check if in 2002 Le Pen won any Cantons in the second round; he didn't (unless I missed one). His highest % was (I think) 37% in St Gilles (Gard department).

I'm preparing a FN results comparaison (by departments) at elections 1998 (regionals) , 2002 (presidential. Only 1st run. Second run was a "hysterie")and 2004 (regionals). It's not still totally done but it's interesting to see that results of FN in 2004 are enough equivalent to the elections 1998 (before the Megret "putch-putch"). It's the proof that the FN organization is better than in 2002.

[Silent Hunter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6310557.stm

Article about Royal's gaffes, among other things.

I'm supporting Royal, but only because of the PES rule. Don't know much about her policies.

[Umengus]

Louis harris

01/26-27

Besancenot: 2%
Laguiller: 2%
Buffet: 5%
José Bové: 2%

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 29%

Bayrou: 14%
Le page: 0,5%

Sarkozy: 31%

De Villiers: 2%

Le Pen: 10%


20% did not express

Royal: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

16% did not express


Ipsos poll

01/26-27

Besancenot: 3,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3,5% (=)
Bové: 1%

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 26% (-3)

Bayrou: 11% (=)

Le Page: 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 35% (+3)

Dupont Aignan (gaullist): 0,5%

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 11% (-2)

17% did not express

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

20% did nto express

74% of udf voters for Sarkozy in the runoff.
76% of fn voters for sarkozy in the runoff.

My comment:

-Some socialists think to call Jospin to be the candidate...

-Sarkozy overatted and Le Pen underestimated. Not suprised if at the election day sarkozy realizes 25% and Le Pen 20%.

[Hash]

Yup. Sarkozy is in the lead, so far, so good. I hope Royal will continue her gaffes and lead Sarkozy to the Presidency... with a large majority. What's up with this clown Dupont-Aignan? He needs to get help.

2. Where's Nihous?

[Verily]

A lot of good news for Bayrou. I'm still plugging for a Bayrou-Sarkozy runoff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm still plugging for a Bayrou-Sarkozy runoff.

Won't happen; the Left isn't split enough or weak enough to allow two candidates from the Right into the second round.

If Sarkozy strength in the polls really is exaggerated (and at the expense of Le Pen), a Royal-Le Pen runoff is much more likely than that actually; especially if Chirac decides to play the role of an electoral suicide-bomber.

The battle out on the far-left is looking very interesting though.

[afleitch]

Is it correct to say that those who 'do not express' will still vote, but they won't say why or are undecided? If so, who do you think they will 'break' for?

EDIT- good site, probably been mentioned on here before http://www.election-politique.com/pres1995.php it also has tv coverage of the exit polls from each round back to the 70's. (Miterrands victory in 1988 was heralded by the sounds of Dire Straits )

[Gustaf]

I'm rooting for Bayrou but it's almost certainly going to be between Royal and Sarkozy, I think. I hope Sarkozy takes it, as it currently looks like.

[Umengus]

Is it correct to say that those who 'do not express' will still vote, but they won't say why or are undecided? If so, who do you think they will 'break' for?

EDIT- good site, probably been mentioned on here before http://www.election-politique.com/pres1995.php it also has tv coverage of the exit polls from each round back to the 70's. (Miterrands victory in 1988 was heralded by the sounds of Dire Straits )

correct.

Difficult to say for wich candidate whose refuse to express will vote. Traditionnaly, Le Pen surges in polls in the last days.

[Umengus]

CSA poll

01/31 (last csa poll: 01/17)

Schivardi: 0,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 2% (-2)
Buffet: 3% (=)
Bové (officially candidate): 1%

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 27% (-2)

Bayrou: 12% (+3)

Le Page: 1%

Nihous: 1% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 31% (+1)

Dupont Aignan: 0,5% (-0,5)

De Villiers: 1% (-2)

Le Pen: 16% (+1)

Turnout: 74% (=)

Sarkozy: 53% (+1)
Royal: 47% (-1)

Turnout: 72% (-2)

[minionofmidas]

I'm still plugging for a Bayrou-Sarkozy runoff.

Won't happen; the Left isn't split enough or weak enough to allow two candidates from the Right into the second round.

If Sarkozy strength in the polls really is exaggerated (and at the expense of Le Pen), a Royal-Le Pen runoff is much more likely than that actually; especially if Chirac decides to play the role of an electoral suicide-bomber.

In which case I wouldn't rule out Royal - Bayrou either...

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Astérix Bové has my full support. Should have gotten in much, much sooner or not at all, though, realistically speaking.

[afleitch]

Sarkozy-Bayrou would be interesting