French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Tender Branson]

Results:

* 218.771 Socialist Party members were able to vote

* Turnout was 82.04%

* Ségolène Royal: 60.62%



* Dominique Strauss-Kahn: 20.83%
* Laurent Fabius: 18.54%

[Umengus]

the only surprise is the weak score of DSK. He tought that he would be clearly second and in 30's. The result of Fabius was predicted. Royal very strong.

[Umengus]

Royal first in all French departments excepted 2 (seine maritime (fabius's fief) and haute corse) ...

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/infog/0,47-0@2-823448,54-835445@51-822961,0.html

[Michael Z]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1950383,00.html

"Clear victory for Royal in race to be President"

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, its nice to see the rank and file of the Socialist Party making the right call on this one . Royal is the only one who can defeat Sarkozy

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

[Umengus]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

UMP is the party of, by and for Sarkozy. I can't imagine another people like UMP candidate but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party. Wait and see but it will be very difficult, for a right candidate, to fight against Sarkozy at the first turn.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party.

Only in France (and the Third World)

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls:

Ifop - 2nd Round:

Royal: 51%
Sarkozy: 49%

Ipsos - 2nd Round:

Royal: 50%
Sarkozy: 50%

...

I like it, it´s a close one

[Umengus]

BVA poll

UMP primary (hypothetical for now)

Sarkozy: 66%
Alliot Marie (defense minister): 15%
De Villepin (PM): 11%

do you want that Chirac still runs like president?

all: yes: 24% no: 72%
right people: yes: 15% no: 83%

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

UMP prim

Sarkozy: 77%
Alliot-Marie: 17%
De Villepin: 6%

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos poll

UMP prim

Sarkozy: 77%
Alliot-Marie: 17%
De Villepin: 6%

Well, it seems the chance I saw for Alliot-Marie to get the UMP nomination in an earlier post is now quite zero. It seems Sarkozy will clinch it with a Royal like result, maybe even higher.

Royal vs. Sarkozy, there you go !

[Umengus]

Poll: 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right Le Pen in presidential race
The Associated PressPublished: November 24, 2006

PARIS: About 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen ahead of spring presidential elections, according to a poll published Friday.

The poll, carried out by the CSA polling agency for Le Monde newspaper and i-tele TV station, suggests Le Pen's poll numbers are now on par with the score he garnered in the first round of the 2002 presidential elections — a result that sent him into the run-off with incumbent President Jacques Chirac, shocking France.

If elected, Le Pen, leader of the National Front, has pledged to push through a "zero immigration" policy, pull France from the European Union and NATO, outlaw abortions and restore the death penalty.

CSA polled 1,002 people by telephone on Nov. 21 and 22. No margin of error was provided.

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 Le Pen's poll figures have risen 8 percentage points since January. Stephane Rozes, head of CSA, told Le Monde that Le Pen had likely gained ground because of continuing tensions in suburbs with a high percentage of residents of immigrant origin.

Young attackers have set fire to several public buses in recent weeks, attacks that coincided with the anniversary of riots that raged through neglected housing projects nationwide a year ago. In an attack in the southern city of Marseille, a woman was seriously burned.

This week, Le Pen said he was having trouble getting the required 500 official backers he needs to run for president in 2007. He appealed to the prime minister to keep supporters' names secret — a measure he believes would help him get the signatures he needs. The request was promptly turned down.

If Le Pen makes it into the race, he will join a slew of candidates, including Socialist lawmaker Segolene Royal and the center-right's likely candidate, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

source: International Herald tribune.

the last ipsos poll gave only 10% to le Pen but probably that csa is correct.

[Tender Branson]

PARIS: About 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen ahead of spring presidential elections, according to a poll published Friday.

If elected, Le Pen, leader of the National Front, has pledged to push through a "zero immigration" policy, pull France from the European Union and NATO, outlaw abortions and restore the death penalty.

I hope France will be spared of this guy. His potential is around 20-25% of the vote (similar to the potential of the far-right in Austria). Royal and Sarkozy should get more than this 25% in the 1st round to advance into the second, without LePen pulling a surprise like last time.

In the meantime Sarkozy said that he will announce his plans about a presidency next week.

"In an interview on TF1 television station, Sarkozy said he would wait until next week to announce his own candidacy.

The governing Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP, which Sarkozy heads, decided Wednesday to extend the filing deadline until the end of December, instead of Dec. 5, in a bow to critics complaining that the party candidacy was already locked up.

"I want the debate. I don't want division," Sarkozy said.

"All those who think they have something to say, a project to propose to the French, an energy to put in the service of France, become candidates," he said."

[Umengus]

CSA poll

Laguiller: 3 (=)
Besancenot: 5% (+1)
Buffet: 3% (-1)

Voynet: 2% (-1)

Royal: 32% (+3)

Chevenement: 1% (-2)

Bayrou: 6% (-1)

Sarkozy: 29% (-1)

De Villiers: 2% (=)

Le Pen: 17% (+2)

Turnout: 73% (+3)

Royal: 53% (+2)
Sarkozy: 47% (-2)

T: 74% (+3)

After her nomination, a little bump for Royal was predicted. it's the case. Not sure that it will be long.

CSA says also that if Le pen can't run, 8% would go to Sarkozy, 5% to Royal, 3 % to de villiers, 1% to laguiller.

[Tender Branson]

Sarkozy is in !

Asked if he would be a candidate, Sarkozy said, "My answer is yes," Libération reported.

[Tender Branson]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

UMP is the party of, by and for Sarkozy. I can't imagine another people like UMP candidate but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party. Wait and see but it will be very difficult, for a right candidate, to fight against Sarkozy at the first turn.

Alliot-Marie ready to run against Sarkozy

PARIS • French Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said she was ready to seek the nomination of the ruling UMP party to run in next year’s election, setting up a confrontation with conservative frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy.

Alliot-Marie, 60, known in France by her initials “MAM”, has been carefully staking out her ground on the traditional Gaullist wing of the conservative UMP party and making little secret of her antipathy for the hardline Sarkozy.

“I think today that I am ready because I have a certain experience of things and I have worked for it,” she was quoted as saying by Le Figaro after a party meeting late on Wednesday.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Rest+of+the+World&month=December2006&file=World_News2006120882757.xml

[Umengus]

Alliot marie should run in UMP primaries but she will not win. Some pundits say that UMP primaries will be unfair to avoid a humiliation for alliot-marie... lol


Some Pundits say also that it's very doubtful a chiraquien runs directly for president. 

[Hash]

I'm French and I'm going to vote Sarkozy. I just thing Segolene Royale does not have the suitable experience to be President just yet- maybe in a couple years. Chevenement has decided to rally Segolene BTW.

[Umengus]

I'm French and I'm going to vote Sarkozy. I just thing Segolene Royale does not have the suitable experience to be President just yet- maybe in a couple years. Chevenement has decided to rally Segolene BTW.

...to regain his MP mandate...

[Umengus]

nice girl...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An article on Le Pen's strategy in the upcoming elections:

http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=594&language_id=1

[Umengus]

in 2002: Le Pen+Megret= 19%
Hence, in 2007, it would not be a surprise if Le Pen reachs the 20% line but 2 differences with 2002: first, de villiers who can take 2-3% to Le Pen and secondly Sarkozy with his security stance.

[Tender Branson]

Royal still leads Sarkozy in the latest CSA/Le Monde poll conducted on January 3, 2007:

1st Round:

Ségolène Royal: 34%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 32%
Jean-Marie Le Pen: 15%
François Bayrou: 6%
Marie-George Buffet: 5%
Arlette Laguiller: 3%
Olivier Besancenot: 2%
Philippe de Villiers: 2%
Dominique Voynet: 1%

Run-Off:

Ségolène Royal: 52%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 48%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070103a.htm

[Umengus]

Le Pen and...