French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Tender Branson]

Are there new polls for the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections ?

[Tender Branson]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

[Tender Branson]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

Why irrelevant ? Both are leading with big margins in their parties. It looks Royal has a good chance to win this and we get another woman on top of a European country.

[Tender Branson]

I just read the Wiki article about Segolene Royal and I find her quite OK. Would definitely be a good president i think. Just my opinion but i don´t know much else about her and i don´t know what the French say about her.

[Tender Branson]

Results:

* 218.771 Socialist Party members were able to vote

* Turnout was 82.04%

* Ségolène Royal: 60.62%



* Dominique Strauss-Kahn: 20.83%
* Laurent Fabius: 18.54%

[Tender Branson]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls:

Ifop - 2nd Round:

Royal: 51%
Sarkozy: 49%

Ipsos - 2nd Round:

Royal: 50%
Sarkozy: 50%

...

I like it, it´s a close one

[Tender Branson]

Ipsos poll

UMP prim

Sarkozy: 77%
Alliot-Marie: 17%
De Villepin: 6%

Well, it seems the chance I saw for Alliot-Marie to get the UMP nomination in an earlier post is now quite zero. It seems Sarkozy will clinch it with a Royal like result, maybe even higher.

Royal vs. Sarkozy, there you go !

[Tender Branson]

PARIS: About 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen ahead of spring presidential elections, according to a poll published Friday.

If elected, Le Pen, leader of the National Front, has pledged to push through a "zero immigration" policy, pull France from the European Union and NATO, outlaw abortions and restore the death penalty.

I hope France will be spared of this guy. His potential is around 20-25% of the vote (similar to the potential of the far-right in Austria). Royal and Sarkozy should get more than this 25% in the 1st round to advance into the second, without LePen pulling a surprise like last time.

In the meantime Sarkozy said that he will announce his plans about a presidency next week.

"In an interview on TF1 television station, Sarkozy said he would wait until next week to announce his own candidacy.

The governing Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP, which Sarkozy heads, decided Wednesday to extend the filing deadline until the end of December, instead of Dec. 5, in a bow to critics complaining that the party candidacy was already locked up.

"I want the debate. I don't want division," Sarkozy said.

"All those who think they have something to say, a project to propose to the French, an energy to put in the service of France, become candidates," he said."

[Tender Branson]

Sarkozy is in !

Asked if he would be a candidate, Sarkozy said, "My answer is yes," Libération reported.

[Tender Branson]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

UMP is the party of, by and for Sarkozy. I can't imagine another people like UMP candidate but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party. Wait and see but it will be very difficult, for a right candidate, to fight against Sarkozy at the first turn.

Alliot-Marie ready to run against Sarkozy

PARIS • French Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said she was ready to seek the nomination of the ruling UMP party to run in next year’s election, setting up a confrontation with conservative frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy.

Alliot-Marie, 60, known in France by her initials “MAM”, has been carefully staking out her ground on the traditional Gaullist wing of the conservative UMP party and making little secret of her antipathy for the hardline Sarkozy.

“I think today that I am ready because I have a certain experience of things and I have worked for it,” she was quoted as saying by Le Figaro after a party meeting late on Wednesday.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Rest+of+the+World&month=December2006&file=World_News2006120882757.xml

[Tender Branson]

Royal still leads Sarkozy in the latest CSA/Le Monde poll conducted on January 3, 2007:

1st Round:

Ségolène Royal: 34%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 32%
Jean-Marie Le Pen: 15%
François Bayrou: 6%
Marie-George Buffet: 5%
Arlette Laguiller: 3%
Olivier Besancenot: 2%
Philippe de Villiers: 2%
Dominique Voynet: 1%

Run-Off:

Ségolène Royal: 52%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 48%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070103a.htm

[Tender Branson]

First poll for the legislative elections in June:

"The Socialist Party and Sarkozy's ruling party UMP also tied in a poll of voters' preferences for June parliamentary elections. The Socialists came in well behind the UMP in the last legislative elections in 2002, though gained ground in 2004 regional elections.

Both parties would enjoy 31 percent of the vote if the elections were held this weekend, according to the poll by L'Observatoire Electoral BVA-Orange. Le Pen's National Front and the center-left National Republican Movement would come in next, each with 10 percent."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/10/europe/EU-POL-France-Close-Races.php

And no surprise:

Sarkozy and Royal are again tied at 50% in the latest Ipsos-Runoff-poll.

[Tender Branson]

The new CSA poll schows a big bounce for Royal after her TV debate, which had more viewers than the Sarkozy debate.

With Sarkozy leading Royal 55-45 in their previous poll, Royal gained 4% and is now just behind by 49-51 in the second round.

1st round (gain/loss compared to last poll):

Royal: 29% (+2)
Sarkozy: 28% (-5)
Bayrou: 17% (+4)
Le Pen: 14% (-)

http://www.csa-fr.com/fusioncharts/presi2007/presi2007.html

[Tender Branson]

Bayrou hits 20% in new poll. Still looking for the rest of the poll.

EDIT: ah here we go

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05032007/323/france-s-bayrou-confirmed-third-man-new-polls.html

Here´s the rest of the poll:

http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/politique_nationale/lh2rmcbfmtv20mn5_6_mars07.pdf

It´s actually Sarkozy who´s losing points to Bayrou, not Royal.

Sarkozy from 30 to 28%.
Royal steady at 27%.
Bayrou from 17 to 20%.
LePen from 13 to 14%

Second round:

Sarkozy 52 (50)
Royal 48 (50)

[Tender Branson]

Latest CSA poll:

[Tender Branson]

I predict:

1st round:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 24%
LePen: 19%
Bayrou: 19%
Others: 11%

[Tender Branson]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

[Tender Branson]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

Mainland France:

Open - 8am local time, Sunday
Close - 6pm smaller towns, 8pm bigger cities

Oversea Dept.:

Don´t know, I just know they start voting on Saturday.

[Tender Branson]

She speaks as slow as a turtle and (she's good in acting I can say) articulates every sound. It's in her way of speech that I find she speaks to people as if they were kids.

       

[Tender Branson]

Which candidate should a high turnout benefit?

difficult to say. I would say le Pen because a high turnout= lots popular voters (often non voters) at polling stations. But it's not scientific and some people think not the same.

12 am: turnout: 31,21% (21,4% in 2002)

Wow, could be a total turnout of 80-82%, which means 36 Mio. votes. It will be interesting to see if one of the top candidates gets 28% of the vote or better said more than 10 Mio. votes in the first round.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Paris:

24,6% until 11:30 compared to 20,4% in 2002.

This is bad for Royal, isn´t it ? Paris normally votes Socialist and if the national turnout is 10% higher compared to 2002, 4% in Paris is no good sign. But we´ll see ...

Turnout in French overseas departments (Saturday):

Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: 63,11% (2002: 41,97%)
New-Caledonia: 57,44% (2002: 49,26%)
French-Guyana: 53,31% (2002: 46,76%)
French-Polynesia: 55,88% (2002: 52,07%)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Paris:

24,6% until 11:30 compared to 20,4% in 2002.

This is bad for Royal, isn´t it ? Paris normally votes Socialist and if the national turnout is 10% higher compared to 2002, 4% in Paris is no good sign. But we´ll see ...

Woops, my fault. The Paris region is a swing region:

Thanks to Kireevs site:

http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/f/france/2002-president-elections-france.html

it shows for 2002's first round:

Ile-de-France:

Chirac: 19,1 %
Jospin: 16,8 %
Le Pen: 16,0 %

So, not so bad for Royal ...

[Tender Branson]

According to "Le Figaro" total turnout could reach 87% or about 39 Mio. votes.

[Tender Branson]

servers are busy, very slow. Damn it!

Yeah. I tried too. Probably 40 Mio. French and another 100 mio. from elsewhere in Europe and America are now floating the Belgian and Swiss TV channels. No wonder they break down