Do you have any polls for the parliamentary election?
Parlm elections will occcur in june 2007, just after presidential election. The party of the president elected should win it.
Ok, but do you think the FN will win any seats this time?
BTW, how about you create a thread for the Flemish Municipal Elections?
Will the VB win Antwerpen?
1) Difficult to say. Problem for them is that the French electoral system is not favorable for parties like FN. In 2002, FN didn't make a very good score at PM elections, less than in 1995. FN has a problem of organisation since the clash between Le Pen and Megret. Lots of FN executives had chosen Megret vs Le Pen and consequently in some regions where FN is very strong, his organisation is weak.
2) I will create the thread in september (elections in october). VB (In Fl) and FN (in Wall) will make a very good result. A tsunami probably. Poll give VB at 35% in Antwerpen. Polls always underestimate the VB result. VB alone will can not to get the majority but if some VLD or CDV elected cross the line...
Well, I see only one seat that could have been won by the Front National, it's the circonscription encompassing the city of Orange, in the Vaucluse département. This area is full of pied-noirs (white people from Algeria and vote FN in huge numbers), the left is virtually inexistent, and if the UMP is weak, FN can win there. However, Bompard, the mayor of Orange and usual FN candidate switched party last year, ending hopes for the FN to win this seat.
In other areas such as Vitrolles or Toulon, the FN machine is too weak to hope any parliamentary seat, even if they will poll very well in the Presidential eleection.
Therefore, I don't believe the FN will win any seat, but it may cause the defeat of the UMP by faring well and qualifiying for the run-off (in these elections, you qualify for the run-off if you win 12,5% of the popular vote). They did it in 1997, and the right lost because of it. i still remember the ''triangulaires de la mort''...
