French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[minionofmidas]

No, few did. Most went east.

[minionofmidas]

I always figured Sarkozy sounded Hungarian.

[minionofmidas]

I want a Jospin vs de Villepin race in that case.

[minionofmidas]

I've heard rumours of the possibility of a José Bové candidacy. How realistic is that? How much could he take?

[minionofmidas]

The Front always has had different posters for different kinds of neighborhoods... this is your typical "left/right (ie, traditional parties) have bungled everything!" poster - note it doesn't say how assimilation and social mobility and separation of church and state should be handled.
Then there's the type (seen only when the left governs) about how the entire Gauche Plurielle is Communist (seen one with the G of Gauche shown as hammer & sickle)... and then, of course, there's the poster for the lily-white suburb nearby, the one with the little blonde boy and the words "for his future". Yeah, they're good at telling everybody what they want to hear. There's probably some anti-islamic stuff up nowadays as well... that part of the message wasn't as important a couple years ago when I travelled France extensively. Mind you, the Laicité part of this one is actually about that, not about Christians.

[minionofmidas]

nice girl...

So is she a supporter or is she an example of what they oppose?

Shame, they might deport her if they win..

she supports Front national and front national is the first party to have elected a muslim

Tell me more... to what office?
I have noticed the shamefully low incidence of elected members of minorities in the traditional French parties...

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True.
Of course, there is a reason why people think it is.

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[minionofmidas]

In 2002, just after presidential election, national front+mnr did a weak result (12,4% vs 19,3% at the presidential election) because the weak organization.

Not because of that (or not only because of that - I couldn't judge, but I guess the latter). Le Pen also gets some personal votes that the FN as a party doesn't get.

[minionofmidas]

I'm still plugging for a Bayrou-Sarkozy runoff.

Won't happen; the Left isn't split enough or weak enough to allow two candidates from the Right into the second round.

If Sarkozy strength in the polls really is exaggerated (and at the expense of Le Pen), a Royal-Le Pen runoff is much more likely than that actually; especially if Chirac decides to play the role of an electoral suicide-bomber.

In which case I wouldn't rule out Royal - Bayrou either...

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Astérix Bové has my full support. Should have gotten in much, much sooner or not at all, though, realistically speaking.

[minionofmidas]

Since I suppose we can expect Le Pen to do better than he is polling now ... the question is: which candidate will he take the most from, thus denying that candidate the runoff?

[minionofmidas]

Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

Chirac thinks the same about sarkozy but he will not it say.

I doubt anyone is dumb enough not to *know* that about Sarkozy.

[minionofmidas]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

Very probably a mix of both, actually.

[minionofmidas]

But, dpes Italy have the same immigration/integration problems that France has? Like the 2005 riots?

We got plenty of illegal immigrants every year,

Comparatively few legal ones though (although things have changed from ten, twenty years ago when I was in Italy fairly frequently, I suppose)

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What about AN and FI? Not quite the same as FN of course, but perhaps part of the story why there is no FN equivalent (the Lega isn't one either)?

[minionofmidas]

What is the Alleanza Nazionale (12% of the vote last election) if it's not Fascist? Sure, not as bad as Le Pen and Co., but still...

Fini,Alleanza Nazionale's leader,is as fascist as Sarkozy or Bush might be...

Bush? That's not exactly comforting.

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Yes... it's not just issue positions I'm thinking of, but, you know, a party's general style. I've always felt that those critizicing Berlusconi only for his involvement with the silly posturings of the Lega and the Fascist heritage of the AN (and the AN is NOT exactly what the MSI used to be. They wouldn't be as successful as they are otherwise.) were missing the point. The whole way FI is set up, the whole core persona of Berlusconi himself... that guy should not have a place in something as supposedly mainstream and MOR as the European People's Party.

[minionofmidas]

What is the Alleanza Nazionale (12% of the vote last election) if it's not Fascist? Sure, not as bad as Le Pen and Co., but still...

Fini,Alleanza Nazionale's leader,is as fascist as Sarkozy or Bush might be...

Bush? That's not exactly comforting.

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Yes... it's not just issue positions I'm thinking of, but, you know, a party's general style. I've always felt that those critizicing Berlusconi only for his involvement with the silly posturings of the Lega and the Fascist heritage of the AN (and the AN is NOT exactly what the MSI used to be. They wouldn't be as successful as they are otherwise.) were missing the point. The whole way FI is set up, the whole core persona of Berlusconi himself... that guy should not have a place in something as supposedly mainstream and MOR as the European People's Party.

Bush is an idiot,not a fascist.

Not so quick here.
He certainly is an idiot though - bumbling fool is more like it, actually - which may actually be a reason for relief.

[minionofmidas]

What is the Alleanza Nazionale (12% of the vote last election) if it's not Fascist? Sure, not as bad as Le Pen and Co., but still...

Fini,Alleanza Nazionale's leader,is as fascist as Sarkozy or Bush might be...

Bush? That's not exactly comforting.

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Yes... it's not just issue positions I'm thinking of, but, you know, a party's general style. I've always felt that those critizicing Berlusconi only for his involvement with the silly posturings of the Lega and the Fascist heritage of the AN (and the AN is NOT exactly what the MSI used to be. They wouldn't be as successful as they are otherwise.) were missing the point. The whole way FI is set up, the whole core persona of Berlusconi himself... that guy should not have a place in something as supposedly mainstream and MOR as the European People's Party.

Bush is an idiot,not a fascist.

Not so quick here.
He certainly is an idiot though - bumbling fool is more like it, actually - which may actually be a reason for relief.

Actually, I take that back. Bush is indeed an idiot, not a fascist.

Now, the people he relies most on... the jury's still out on that.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, go Sarkozy!

Are you sure 53% see Sarko elected? I saw one with 59% and another with 67%...

This poll didn't push leaners at all, obviously.

[minionofmidas]

Bayrou a great President? Oh please. If that fruitcake somehow wins I'll go to the French embassy to resign my French nationality because I'll be ashamed of it. If Royal wins, France will become a giant daycare because she talks to people as if they were retarded monkeys. Oh and Bayrou is the same as a sleeping pill.

You're définitively irremediable. The perfect example of a voter wedged in a yoke with blinkers and which cannot see further that its protected candidate.

Who will you be voting for?

[minionofmidas]

Royal 25%
Sarkozy 22%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 17%

This may be way off, but I have my reasons for thinking that a-way.
Actually, I wouldn't rule out Le Pen pipping Sarkozy for second place.

[minionofmidas]

Royal 25%
Sarkozy 22%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 17%

This may be way off, but I have my reasons for thinking that a-way.
Actually, I wouldn't rule out Le Pen pipping Sarkozy for second place.

Sarkozy                         28
Royal                             24
Bayrou                          18
LePen                            15

Note the Sarkozy-Le Pen correlation here, everybody.