French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

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A new thread about the next election in France. 2007 is not today but the undeground campaign had already begun for some months. And first polls... Never uninteresting.

But first, look at the possible candidates:

- "Extreme right": Le Pen (european MP, leader of FN) is old (77 today). It will be his last election, behalve if his daughter wants to run but it's not certain and she is not so popular amongst FN executives.

- Right: 1) De Villiers (European MP) was a "no" leader and it's almost certain that he will run. He did a very good campaign for the no, very social and populist. He's conservative (on moral values) but not stupid: he prefers to speak islamization, Bolkenstein,...  rather than abortion.

             2) Sarkozy (leader of the UMP (strongest right party) and minister of the Interior Department. 2 very good positions to win the election): A "yes" leader but still very popular. He will be candidate, no doubts about that... His message "law and order" is very popular amongst voters. But his neo-liberal economic and communautarist views can hurt him. The front runner  for the moment.

              3) De Villepin (ex-foreign minister and today PM). If you trust in polls, De Villepin was not very popular in the beginning of his action like PM but today he rises in polls. Probably candidate if Chirac doesn't run. It's a gaullist, hence his opinions are opposed to those of  Sarkozy (De Villepin: not neo-liberal but etatist, against communautarism and not a great friend of Bush (but not a enemy either). It's a question of style too: Sarkozy is small, very active and always on the field. He speaks often with people and he understands (or give the impression to understand) people problems; Villepin is great, elegant and less on the field). De Villepin and Sarkozy are not friends and it's an euphemism...

                4) Jacques Chirac (French President): He was candidate in 1981, and still in 1988, 1995 and 2002. After failures on referendum and regionals elections, with a very low popularity, it's difficult to imagine Chirac like candidate in 2007. But with this guy, you don't know...2 things to note: First, his hatred towards Sarkozy. Secondly, if he is candidate, de Villepin, his friend, will not.                 


- Center right: Bayrou (French MP and president of UDF, center-right party not completely in the majority, not completely in the opposition). Bayrou was a yes-leader. It's a pro-european and he's against Turkey in Europa. UDF is historically more conservative on values and more "social" on economy than UMP (his electorate is catholic). It's sure that he will be candidate, like in 2002 (7%).  To win, Bayrou must enlarge his electoral ground. It will not be easy...

- Socialist:  The situation in the socialist party is not really clear... The reason of this is the "no" win at the last referendum on EU constitution. The "no" was the minority (40%) in the socialist party. But it's obviously that corruption happened during the internal vote... And the "no" is the majority in the country... The next Socialist congress (in november) will be maybe decisive to know who will be (or not) the socialist candidate(s) in 2007.

                1) Laurent Fabius (French MP): he was the minister for Finance and Economy in the Jospin gov. . He was a liberal minister (privatization, tax cuts,...). Hence, he was hated by the left wing of the socialist party. But today it's different because he has voted "no" to the referendum (attacking neoliberalism, anti-democratism of UE,...  Fabius 2005 against Fabius 2000 in fact ...) and consequently  was a (and maybe the) "no" leader.

Fabius is certainly the socialist who has understood the best the april 21, the elimination of Jospin). He wants take the party with Emmanuelli, Melanchon, Montebourg, all members of the left wing (40% of the party). If he succeed, he will be the probably the only candidate of the PS. If he doesn't, there will be several socialist candidates (Fabius and X) EDIT: if Fabius is not elected by the socialist members as the socialist candidate for the presidential election, some pundits say that he will not be candidate). 

One thing important about Fabius is his chronic unpopularity, even after the "no" victory. His personality, charisma are not liked. Rest ideas...

                2) Francois Hollande (leader of the Socialist party (PS)): It's not a guy who has charisma and "imposing presence" to make the job (look at this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1944715.stm). But he doesn't care about this. Before the referendum, he was in good position to be the socialist candidate but after the no victory, it will be tough for him, even if he's still popular amongst socialist members.

                3) Dominique Strauss-Kahn: ex-minister for Finance and Economy in the Jospin government too (before Fabius in fact). His great problem is that he was, and is still,  a "friend of owners" of companies. Not a good thing for a socialist. Hence, it's the right wing of the socialist party. He was in favor of the constitution and  he has charisma. It will be difficult to catch the party to be the socialist candidate.

                4) Lionel Jospin: come back or not? if he did, he will be still the loser in my opinion.

                5) Segolene Royal: http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1722450,00.html

Fresh and beautiful woman, strong on moral values and authority, centrist on economy. Very good profile to win. The Frontrunner (at the left side), for now...

-left (and not socialist)

                5) José Bové:

-Communist:

                6) Marie Georges Buffet:

-extreme left:

                 7) Olivier Besancenot:

                 8 ) Arlette Laguiller:



Next coming soon...

             

             

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I tought too but I think that lots of "blue bloods" fled in UK...

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Just for fun (of course!)...


CSA poll

June 28 & 29, 809

"If the second turn of the Presidential electional would occur sunday (in reality: May 2007), for wich candidates do you vote?"

1) Sarkozy: 67%
     Emmanuelli: 33%

2) Sarkozy: 62%
    Strauss-Kahn: 38%

3) Sarkozy: 60%
     Fabius: 40%

4) Sarkozy: 59%
    Hollande: 41%

5) Sarkozy: 54%
     Jospin: 46%

a) De Villepin: 67%
     Emmanuelli: 33%

b) De Villepin: 60%
    Hollande: 40%

c) De Villepin: 57%
    Fabius: 43%

d) De Villepin: 56%
    Strauss-Kahn: 44%

e) De Villepin: 50%
    Jospin: 50%

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BVA poll

June 27-29, 860

First turn:

1)

Besancenot: 6%

Laguiller: 3%

Buffet: 4%

Fabius: 17%

Mamère: 7%

Bayrou: 8%

Chirac: 9%

Sarkozy: 31%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 11%

2)

Besancenot: 6%

Laguiller: 2%

Buffet: 4%

Jospin: 25%

Mamère: 4%

Bayrou: 8%

Chirac: 9%

Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 3%

Le Pen: 10%

3)

Besancenot: 8%

Laguiller: 4%

Buffet: 5%

Fabius: 19%

Mamère: 7%

Bayrou: 11%

Sarkozy: 39%

De Villiers: 7%

4)

Besancenot: 8%

Laguiller: 3%

Buffet: 5%

Jospin: 28%

Mamère: 4%

Bayrou: 9%

Sarkozy: 36%

De Villiers: 7%


Second turn:

1)

Jospin: 61%
Chirac: 39%

2)

Fabius: 56%
Chirac: 44%

3)

Jospin: 47%
Sarkozy: 53%

4)

Fabius: 43%
Sarkozy: 57%


Please, it's just to have a good laugh... Polls gave victory in 1995 to Balladur (who? ) and Jospin at the second turn in 2002.

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IFOP poll

10/20-21/2005

Do you wish  the former Prime minister Lionel Jospin like presidential candidate in 2007?

-yes: 32%
-no: 66%

Amongst socialist voters:
-yes: 51%
-no: 48%


no comment...

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Bva poll (January 27-28, 951)

1) First turn

Laguiller: 4%
Besancenot: 6%
Buffet: 3%

Segolene Royal: 25%
Voynet: 2%
 
Bayrou: 7%

De Villepin: 10%
Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 10%


OR

Laguiller: 6%
Besancenot: 5%
Buffet: 4%

Jospin: 22%
Voynet: 3%

Baurou: 7%

De Villepin: 11%
Sarkozy: 30%

De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 9%

OR

Laguiller: 6%

Bové: 8%

Royal: 26%

Bayrou: 8%

De Villepin: 11%
Sarkozy: 27%

De Villiers: 5%

Le Pen: 9%

OR

Laguiller: 6%

Bové: 9%

Jospin: 22%

Bayrou: 9%

De Villepin:11%
Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers: 5%

Le Pen: 9%


2) Second turn

Segolene royal: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

Segolene Royal: 48%
De Villepin: 52%

Jospin: 46%
Sarkozy: 54%

Jospin: 45%
De Villepin: 55%

3) Wich is the best candidate for UMP?

-Sarkozy: 43%
-De Villepin: 38%
-Chirac: 9%
-none: 8%

Amongst right voters:

Sarkozy: 64%
De villepin: 29%
Chirac: 3%
None: 3%

Amongst UMP-voters:

Sarkozy: 69%
De Villepin: 26%
Chirac: 4%
none: 1%

Amongst left-voters:

Sarkozy: 24%
De Villepin: 49%
Chirac: 14%
none: 10%


Comment

a) Presidential election will occur in april 2007

b) Sarkozy will be the official candidate of UMP party. We will see for De villepin (2 UMP-candidates or De Villepin will create a new party? or maybe an alliance between both). Problem of Villepin is the fact that the great majority of right voters prefer Sarkozy. But De Villepin has a chance to win if he takes the second place after the first turn. It will be not easy if there is a strong socialist candidate like, for now, segolene royal.

c) Segolene Royal is the wife of uncharismatic boss of the socialist party. Is her rise in the polls durable? or just a short phenomenon?

D) Jospin did horrible in the polls. I would be very suprised if he becomes president in 2007.

E) But the most important thing will be turnout. You will not have the same president with 60% or 70% of turnout...

F) In 2002, first polls gave 10% to Le Pen. You know the final result...

[Umengus]

My buddy Jean Marie will surprise everyone like last time.

it will be hard for Le Pen to be at the second turn this time.

2 reasons: first, Segolene Royal, if she is the socialist candidate, should make a good result at the first turn. Secondly and for this moment, Sarkozy and Philippe de Villiers would catch lots of FN popular voters.  Problem with Sarkozy is that his economic views are not popular amongst popular voters (working poors,...), contrary to his opinions about security in the streets. But Philippe de Villiers should keep his views on security, immigration and islamization and has economic views wich are not "neo-liberal". A Ipsos pollster, the best poll firm in France in my opinion, recently said that de villiers was more popular amongst workmen than Le Pen.  Not impossible. Hence, De Villiers could be the big surprise in 2007.

Last but not least, some pundits think that there will not be a fight between Sarkozy and De Villepin in 2007. Probably an alliance: Sarkozy President and Villepin PM. Just pundits of course... In this case, de villiers could make a good score.

[Umengus]

Am I right in assuming that Sarkozy is a shoo-in for the Presidency?

For the first run yes. I have lots of difficulties to imagine Sarkozy losing the ump voters (In my opinion, it's imperative to be strong amongst his base to reach the second turn) to Villepin. Villepin is down in the polls in this moment. History shows PM is not a good job to become president (cfr Chirac, Balladur and Jospin).

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/france/story/0,,1722450,00.html

Good article

""I am a socialist and at the same time clear about a certain number of values ... family values, environmental values, the value of succeeding at school, the value of merit and respect for work. To me these are not incompatible with being of the left."

Very very good.

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I said in my last post that; according to some pundits, Sarkozy and de villepin could make alliance to win the presidential election. In fact, I think that its will be not the case. Today, the newspaper "le monde" give transcripts of a book by Franz olivier Giesbert where you can see the hateful between Sarkozy and de Villepin. You can read that, in 2004, de Villepin (probably but it's not 100% sure) wanted kill Sarkozy with a money scandal and hence, Sarkozy wants to kill the author of it ("a day, I will find the bastard who is the author of this scandal and he will be done with "a hook of butcher"". The great scandal failed. When Sarkozy came back like Minister of the interior department, he said that he would fight the plotters. Before Sarkozy, it was de Villepin who was this minister...

You can also read that de villepin calls Sarkozy "the midget" or "the dwarf". "It's a faschist, a French faschist, ready to all to win". "he has nothing in the trousers".

The last words of the article: "seldom we have seen so much violence and hateful in French politics." 

To imagine an alliance between Sarkozy and de Villepin seems difficult for me but you know never... Power is strong...

For Chirac Sarkozy is completely crazy.

[Umengus]

Umengus,

how likely you see that de Villepin would have his own party,

The Frence centre-right is as united as it has ever been. Is four years maybe to long time not to split.

It's the problem of villepin. To create a party, you must have supporters and it's clear for me that UMP voters (and right voters) prefer Sarkozy. Sarkozy will be the candidate of UMP. The possibility for Villepin is UMP supports 2 candidates, like in 1995 (Chirac and Balladur) but Sarkozy would be stupid to authorize that.

Villepin can win without a strong party? that's the real question

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Ipsos poll

March 10-11

size: 945

(last: february)


FIRST TURN (with De Villepin, without Sarkozy)

Laguiller (Extreme left): 3% (-1)
Besancenot (Extreme left): 5% (-1)


Buffet (communist): 3% (=)

Royal (Socialist): 32% (+2)

Voynet (Green): 2% (-1)

Bayrou (center-right): 9% (+1)

De Villepin (UMP): 25% (-2)

De Villiers (Populist): 8% (+1)

Le Pen (extreme right): 13% (+1)

15% didn't express their vote.

SECOND TURN

Royal: 53% (+1)
De Villepin: 47% (-1)

12% didn't express their vote

FIRST RUN (with Sarkozy, without De Villepin)

Laguiller: 3% (-1)
Besancenot: 5% (-1)

Buffet: 3% (=)

Royal: 28% (+1)

Boynet: 2% (-1)

Bayrou: 7% (=)

Sarkozy: 36% (+1)

De villiers: 7% (+1)

Le Pen: 9% (=)

13% didn't express their vote

SECOND RUN

Royal: 50% (+1)
Sarkozy: 50%(-1)

9% didn't express their vote

My Comment: lots of FN voters like Sarkozy for his message on law and order. De Villepin is not weak on crime but perform not very well with FN voters (problem of style). Interesting to see that for some voters it's: Sarkozy>Royal>De Villepin.

I'm glad to see the rise of de villiers in polls. His populist message (against outsourcing, islamization, insecurity (very good subjects in my opinion)) does well amongst popular voters say Ipsos pollster. De Villiers can be the surprise and he knows that he could catch lots of popular voters to Sarkozy in attacking him on islam (Sarkozy is pro-muslim and communautarist) and problems on insecurity: "Sarkozy doesn't make what he says"

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French election presidential will occur 20 april 2007. Last polls (I don't give every polls. Not still relevant)

1) Ifop poll

April 20 & 21, 883

1st run

Laguiller: 3%
Besancenot: 5%
Buffet: 4%

Royal: 30%
Voynet: 2%

Bayrou: 6%

Sarkozy: 32%
De Villiers: 4%

Le Pen: 12%

2nd run (completly irrelevant but it's in the poll...)

Royal: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

2) CSA poll

April 18 & 19, 878

1st run

Laguiller: 5%
Besancenot: 5% (-1)
Buffet: 3% (-1)

Royal: 31%  (+4)
Voynet: 2% (+1)

Bayrou: 5% (-1)

Sarkozy: 31% (-3)
De Villers: 4% (+1)

Le Pen: 14% (+2)

Turnout: 62% (=)

2d run

Royal: 53% (+1)
Sarkozy: 47% (-1)

Turnout: 65% (=)

"My 2 cents":

1) Ifop poll give also the result of others socialist candidates at the 1st run:  (Royal 30%) Lang 21%, Jospin 21%, Hollande 19%, DSK 19% and Fabius 14%. And none of them would win against Sarkozy (Between 44% and 39%). At this hour, Royal is the only socialist candidate and left candidate who has a chance against Sarkozy.

2) Nothing is fixed. There are 30% of extreme left voters who would vote for Sarkozy at the second turn and 35% of Le Pen voters who would vote for Royal at 2d turn. If I think Sarkozy can maintain this, it will be more difficult for Royal because nobody knows her program. Just an illusion for now...

3) Le Pen surges in polls: 9% in January, 14% today. 14% is his best result in polls in 2002 and he did 17% on election day... And campaign just begins... Protest vote (extreme left+extreme right) is already very strong: 30% with de villiers and communists.

4) De Villepin is completely off the game. And the clairstream scandal doesn't improve that...

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I've heard rumours of the possibility of a José Bové candidacy. How realistic is that? How much could he take?

rumours rumours... Some green people wanted him to be the green candidate but it will not be. Maybe a independant run but it's doubtful. He could make a good result but there are already others candidates (Besancenot, laguiller, Le Pen,...) on the anti-mondialim problem and French people have a perception of Bové wich is not the reality I think.

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"Give offenders military service, French Socialist contender says"

Angelique Chrisafis in Paris
Saturday June 3, 2006
The Guardian


Ségolène Royal, the Socialist frontrunner for France's presidential election next year, has sent a shockwave through her party by proposing that teenagers who commit an offence should be sent to do military service.
"We need a return to the heavy hand," said Ms Royal on a visit to Paris's run-down suburbs in the wake of two nights of rioting in which youths burnt cars and attacked police.

Ms Royal, the daughter of a retired army general, said "the abolition of military service was a mistake" and it was time to reinvent it.


Article continues

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Ms Royal's socialist rivals for the presidential nomination accused her of pandering to the right. If chosen as the left's candidate she might well face Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister, who has made no secret of wanting to win over supporters of the extreme right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former finance minister and rival contender for the Socialist presidential nomination, said: "We already have one Sarkozy in this country, there's no point having two."

Ms Royal, the president of the southwestern Poitou-Charentes region, made the comments on a visit to Bondy, a suburb east of Paris that was hit by weeks of rioting last November. New riots broke out this week in nearby Montfermeil and Clichy-sous-Bois. She said that as soon as any teenager over 16 committed a criminal offence they should be sent for army training. Compulsory military service in France was abolished in 2001.

Ms Royal yesterday denied she was stealing Mr Sarkozy's ground. "The word military might have surprised people," she said. "The military training isn't a military service training where one learns to shoot or drive a tank - although that might interest the young, or amuse the boys. But it's about giving back a certain number of reference points for young people in terms of respect." She described the type of army training she envisaged as vocational "humanitarian" work.

Some on the left supported Ms Royal. The Socialist deputy for Essonne, Manuel Valls, praised her straight-talking. Others said she had forced a crucial debate among Socialist party members. Security is likely to be a key campaign issue in the presidential election after last year's widespread rioting on rundown estates across France.


Good good good...

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Louis harris poll

1006 people, june 2-3 (after Segolene's remarks on safety)

Wich is the best candidate for the socialist party for the presidential election in 2007?

for left voters (429):

Segolene Royal: 62%
Dominique Strauss-Kahn: 22%
Jack Lang: 21%
Jospin: 20%


for socialist voters (229):

Segolene Royal: 68%
Dominique Strauss-Kahn: 27%
Jack Lang: 24%
Jospin: 24%

229 or 429 people are not enough of course but well, it's not a bad poll for Segolene. An other poll (ipsos poll) released yesterday indicates Segolene royal's propositions on safety are well received by voters, amongst socialists or left voters even.

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Source: Financial times

Rising star of French left hits at 35-hour week

By Peggy Hollinger in Paris
Published: June 5 2006 19:22 | Last updated: June 5 2006 19:22

Ségolène Royal, the rising star of France’s opposition Socialists, on Monday caused renewed turmoil on the left when she broke one of the party’s taboos by criticising the country’s mandatory 35-hour working week.

 
Following hard on the heels of her explosive comments last week calling for a tougher stance on law and order, Ms Royal accused the 35-hour week of eroding the rights of the country’s weakest workers.

The call is the latest step in Ms Royal’s attempt to build a defining platform for her bid for the Socialists’ nomination for next year’s presidential election by offering a break with traditional party ideology.

Writing on her campaign website, Desires for the Future, Ms Royal said the 35-hour week had resulted in a “spectacular easing” of France’s labour law, which meant executives could enjoy days off while those lower down worked less sociable but more flexible hours. “The proportion of workers on flexible hours has gone from 10 to 40 per cent,” she said, more than their counterparts in the US.

Ms Royal’s latest comments come as the Socialist party is putting the finishing touches to its policy platform, which is expected to be unveiled this week and voted on this summer. The leadership hopes the document will unify a party that has struggled to find common ground after the divisions that emerged during the campaign on the European referendum a year ago.
 
The platform will form the basis of the Socialist campaign for the presidential elections and is expected to reiterate support for the controversial 35-hour week initiative, introduced by Lionel Jospin, Socialist prime minister in 2000.

The party on Monday refused to comment on her criticism, but a press conference scheduled for Tuesday was cancelled. This weekend François Hollande, Ms Royal’s partner and leader of the Socialist party, distanced himself and the party from her controversial suggestion that young first-time offenders should be enrolled in military programmes instead of being sent to prison. He was also forced to call the party to order as the various presidential hopefuls manoeuvre for advantage in the run-up to the election.

On Monday his efforts appeared to have failed. Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, a close friend of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Socialist party heavyweight and potential presidential candidate, asked whether Ms Royal wanted “to be the candidate of the Socialists or against the Socialists”.

But Ms Royal appears to be striking a chord with ordinary voters. An opinion poll in Le Monde showed 69 per cent of those asked agreed with her on law and order. But it also showed that her greatest support on some issues came from the extreme right. Eighty-one per cent of National Front respondents approved Ms Royal’s suggestion that families of young trouble-makers should be sent to parenting school and their family benefits monitored, against just 50 per cent in her own party.

Dominique Moïsi, senior adviser at France’s Institute for International Relations, suggested that Ms Royal was taking a big gamble in pursuing her iconoclastic campaign. By positioning herself against Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister and head of the ruling UMP party, who has preached an Amercian-style pragmatism and rupture with traditional French politics, she could be perpetuating divisions in the left.

“She is betting that the party will follow her if opinion polls show her constantly ahead. She is playing the polls off against the elephants in the party,” he said. “But the risk is that in the next election the extreme left could gain.”

[Umengus]

Do you have any polls for the parliamentary election?

Parlm elections will occcur in june 2007, just after presidential election. The party of the president elected should win it.

[Umengus]

Do you have any polls for the parliamentary election?

Parlm elections will occcur in june 2007, just after presidential election. The party of the president elected should win it.

Ok, but do you think the FN will win any seats this time?

BTW, how about you create a thread for the Flemish Municipal Elections?
Will the VB win Antwerpen?

1) Difficult to say. Problem for them is that the French electoral system is not favorable for  parties like FN. In 2002, FN didn't make a very good score at PM elections, less than in 1995. FN has a problem of organisation since the clash between Le Pen and Megret. Lots of FN executives had chosen Megret vs Le Pen and consequently in some regions where FN is very strong, his organisation is weak.


2) I will create the thread in september (elections in october). VB (In Fl) and FN (in Wall) will make a very good result. A tsunami probably. Poll give VB at 35% in Antwerpen. Polls always underestimate the VB result. VB alone will can not to get the majority but if some VLD or CDV elected cross the line...

[Umengus]

It's informative that Royal thinks she has to go right on certain issues to be competitive. She's correct, obviously.

hard on crime is a right position? that's the big question. Majority of people (often poor, working class, middle class. Consequently "left voters") support strong actions against criminality. There is a clash between left voters and left executives on this topic and Segolene Royal has understood that. But Sarkozy has a great advantage on this subject and it will be hard for Segolene Royal. But if there are violence problems during campaign, Segolene Royal will not be weak and she will can attack Sarkozy on this.

Don't forget too that there will be 2 turns and Segolene Royal want attract some FN voters (in majority workmen or unemployed) to win the second turn against Sarkozy. I think that it's her strategy.

[Umengus]

Do you have any polls for the parliamentary election?

Parlm elections will occcur in june 2007, just after presidential election. The party of the president elected should win it.

Ok, but do you think the FN will win any seats this time?

BTW, how about you create a thread for the Flemish Municipal Elections?
Will the VB win Antwerpen?

1) Difficult to say. Problem for them is that the French electoral system is not favorable for  parties like FN. In 2002, FN didn't make a very good score at PM elections, less than in 1995. FN has a problem of organisation since the clash between Le Pen and Megret. Lots of FN executives had chosen Megret vs Le Pen and consequently in some regions where FN is very strong, his organisation is weak.


2) I will create the thread in september (elections in october). VB (In Fl) and FN (in Wall) will make a very good result. A tsunami probably. Poll give VB at 35% in Antwerpen. Polls always underestimate the VB result. VB alone will can not to get the majority but if some VLD or CDV elected cross the line...

Well, I see only one seat that could have been won by the Front National, it's the circonscription encompassing the city of Orange, in the Vaucluse département. This area is full of pied-noirs (white people from Algeria and vote FN in huge numbers), the left is virtually inexistent, and if the UMP is weak, FN can win there. However, Bompard, the mayor of Orange and usual FN candidate switched party last year, ending hopes for the FN to win this seat.

In other areas such as Vitrolles or Toulon, the FN machine is too weak to hope any parliamentary seat, even if they will poll very well in the Presidential eleection.

Therefore, I don't believe the FN will win any seat, but it may cause the defeat of the UMP by faring well and qualifiying for the run-off (in these elections, you qualify for the run-off if you win 12,5% of the popular vote). They did it in 1997, and the right lost because of it. i still remember the ''triangulaires de la mort''...

I agree

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Ipsos Poll

08/18-26, 510 socialists and 436 UMP (not members but voters)

Primary election Socialist party (method: 2 turns (11/23 and 11/30)? The second turn with the 2 best candidates. Only members of the party can vote)

Turn 1

Royal: 57%
Jospin: 15%
Dsk:11%
Lang: 9%
Fabius: 5%
Hollande: 3%

Turn 2

Royal-Jospin: 69-31
Royal-Lang:73-27
Royal-DSK: 78-22
Royal-Fabius:84-16
Royal-Hollande: 86-14

Not sure that Jospin and Hollande will be candidates. Jospin will not suffer a new defeat and Hollande is the love of Royal.

Primary election UMP party (don't know the method. probably a vote by militants)

Sarkozy: 78%
De villepin: 10%

[Umengus]

Csa poll

08/29-30, 870 people

Royal: 47% (36 42 41 42 54) (Note: 54 in the last poll, 42 the poll before,...)
Jospin: 21% (26 24 21 22 20)
DSK: 16% (17 17 17 13 23)
Lang: 12% (18 20 15 12 19)
Fabius: 9% (12 9 10 12 11)
Hollande: 8% (12 12 9 3 10)
None: 20% (17 12 16 25 16)

[Umengus]

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

[Umengus]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

indeed. 2 very good candidates. For now. But campaign will be very very interessant and decisive.