England Drops Out of WWII... Hitler invades Soviet Union

[J. J.]

No, English policy since the 100 Years War was not to permit a great power to hold the beaches of Belgium or the Netherlands; it makes England too vulnerable to invasion.  England does not make peace with that consideration.

[J. J.]

No, English policy since the 100 Years War was not to permit a great power to hold the beaches of Belgium or the Netherlands; it makes England too vulnerable to invasion.  England does not make peace with that consideration.

This is a policy that the Britsh allowed to slip many times.  I would see no exception in this case.

Oh, when?  Even part of the entry into WWI was to due the possible German invasion of Belgium.

[J. J.]

No, English policy since the 100 Years War was not to permit a great power to hold the beaches of Belgium or the Netherlands; it makes England too vulnerable to invasion.  England does not make peace with that consideration.

This is a policy that the Britsh allowed to slip many times.  I would see no exception in this case.

Oh, when?  Even part of the entry into WWI was to due the possible German invasion of Belgium.

France controled the Beligian coast from the 1600's til the 1830's.  The Hapsburgs (Spain) controled the Netherlands for quite a long time.

Two different and mutually hostile powers, as coupled with support for the United Netherlands.  And remember 1588, England warred against Spain and eventually forced the Spanish Netherlands to be transferred to the Austrians.

In short, there is no way that the English let Hitler control the low countries.

[J. J.]

Two different and mutually hostile powers, as coupled with support for the United Netherlands.  And remember 1588, England warred against Spain and eventually forced the Spanish Netherlands to be transferred to the Austrians.

Wow, they forced them to grant it to another Habsburg power... big improvment.

Actually, it was.  The Austrian Habsburgs never were a global naval power.  There naval activities were directed against the Ottoman fleet in the Mediterranean; even then they needed the substantial held of the still powerful Knights of St. John (Malta).  They were in no position to rival England in the Channel or the North Sea.

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The problem here is that Wehrmacht never learned to walk on water.  Even if the British Army was destroyed, there was still the RAF and the RN to contend with.  Okay, the Germans can't build a bridge across the Channel, dig a tunnel, and still cannot match either the Royal Navy or the Royal Air Force.

Historically, you can see this in the Napoleonic Wars and the fighting in the Peninsula.  The French controlled everything from from the Atlantic to the Vistula, and the British were still fighting.

There are only two ways this scenario works:

1.  Hitler invades England and gains a foothold in Dover or Kent.  To do this, he has to defeat the RN and the RAF.  He couldn't in real life.

2.  Hitler agrees to evacuate the Netherlands, south of the Rhine, Belgium, north of Liege, and possibly the north of France (giving this to Vichy).  Further, the British would have to assure that these are friendly and would possibly have as a stipulation that they could station troops in the Low Countries.  Hitler might do this, but it changes to your scenario a great deal.

[J. J.]

Opperation Sealion was a very real thing to the British, in 1940.  Looking back on it, it is easy for us to see that a coordinated amphibious assult by the Germans on Britain was quite impracticle, but the Brits sure as Hell didn't think this way at the time.  In fact, an invasion was expected.


With no army to defead against an invasion, Britain would have been helpless, or so many in Britain thought at the time.

There are some glaring problems with your logic.

1.  The troops that were evacuated left most of their equipment behind.  You have men, minimally armed out there fighting exceptionally well armed Wehrmacht, with artillery and Panzer's.  Are the these British Troops, recently evacuated, supposed to take out the tanks with their umbrellas?

Now, you can eventually re-arm these troops, and re-organize them, but you are not going to be able to do it immediately.  The evacuations began in late June.  The major attacks on airfields began in late August.  You are not to have the evacuated BEF re-armed by that point.

2.  You have some units in the UK that were not in France, and some of the BEF in the west of France that did evacuate with their equipment.  You also had the "Home Guard," not great, but something.

3.  Third, there is the time factor.  The Nazis cannot contemplate an invasion until after the fighting in France is concluded.  In our time line, that was in late June 1940.  Eliminating the BEF would have probably pushed that back a few weeks; it would tie up German troops and supplies that were needed elsewhere.  Whereas Hitler looked to Britain in early August 1940 in OTL this would be Late August or early September under your scenario.

In Britain sitting on it's hands while this is going on?  No.  It has resources, the British Empire.  It can start getting in Commonwealth troops and equipment to defend Britain (I think that was done in OTL but later).

Germany has to a number of things prior to an invasion.

1.  Get craft together to land troops.

2.  Begin by eliminating the RAF.

3.  Eliminate, via air power, the RN in the English Channel; either sink them or get them out.

Hitler might also delay for a bit to see if he can persuade Franco to let him take Gibraltar.  That was his next goal.

How long does he have to do all this?  Until late October, because Winter is coming.  It will be impossible to cross the Channel in Winter.  After that he has to wait until late Spring of 1941.  Now, at that point, he might be able to launch an invasion, but the Britain will be far from defenseless.

Hitler simply can't stage an invasion of England in 1940, so the presence of the BEF in England has very little bearing on the matter.

Now, will Britain negotiate?  Possibly, but they will not accept any peace that leaves the invasion beaches in the hands of a hostile power.  Why? Simple because Nazis can launch invasion next Spring.  So long as the Wehrmacht is sitting on those beaches, and so long as they are not advancing on Canterbury, Britain will not make peace.