Erc
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,823
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2005, 11:27:10 PM » |
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The main Balkan distraction (Yugoslavia) probably would have gone along with the Axis had the Brits (and, to a far lesser and far more covert extent, the Americans) not been there, exerting diplomatic pressure and some ostensible form of military backup [in Greece].
As for Greece...I think Hitler would have left the Italians rot there. Without any British or Commonwealth presence there, it's not a strategic threat to Germany. He might have sent a division or two down later on to help out if the Italians were in danger of losing Tirana...but nothing more.
As for the Soviet Winter Offensive...yes, Moscow probably would have been retaken--but that assumes that there was a counteroffensive in the first place.
The Germans taking Moscow probably wouldn't have made a difference if they did it on December 4 (just as Napoleon taking Moscow made no difference in the previous century)...but if it had happened sometime in November, what happens to Soviet command and control? Does Stalin and the rest of the government make it out? Even if he does get out, where does he go? How long does it take until it's made perfectly clear that the Great Leader is perfectly safe and running the government from Saratov or wherever? Does Stalin remain in power, even? It's entirely possible that there's a complete command blackout akin (at the very least) to that which occurred in the first days of the war--which the Red Army simply couldn't afford to have happen again.
Let alone all the logistical problems which arise if Moscow gets taken...
In short, the war's over if the Germans still hold Moscow in mid-January 1942--and that's not entirely impossible.
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