England Drops Out of WWII... Hitler invades Soviet Union

[12th Doctor]

I'm going to set up a scenario for you and I want to see what your opinions are...

With the entire British expeditionary force about to be trapped at Dunkirk, the higher ups in the British parliament meet to discuss the formation of a new government.  The top choices are considered to be Winston Churchill, a MP who, to this point has had a less than stellar career, but was a rather forceful presence against previous deals with Hitler, and Lord Halifax, a tall distinguished MP, known for his thoughtful nature and generally liked amongst the politicos of both major parties.

Before the meeting had begun, Churchill was instructed to keep his mouth shut and avoid making any grandiose statements.  Halifax had been instructed to "step up" and be a more vocal about his candidacy for the top job.  Neither of these two figures ended up taking this advice, and, at the end of the day, all present, including Halifax, ended up endorsing Churchill.  What if things had happened "the way they were supposed to"?  What if Halifax, the quite, thoughtful, cautious man, had decided to speak up and put the often blusterous Churchill in his proper place?

The selection of Halifax was hailed on all corners as a positive move.  People of all political stripes agreed that the Tories had made a wise choice.  Halifax soon formed a government, which included members from all parties, and Winston Churchill as Minister of War.

Britain's fortunes in did not improve, however.  The entire British Army was soon encircled at Dunkirk.  Halifax, fearing that the core of the British Army might be destroyed, leaving Britain defenseless against the seemingly unstoppable forces of Nazi Germany.

Halifax wired to Berlin, requesting a ceasefire with Hitler.  Terms would be discussed in the following weeks.  Hitler agreed.  He had never really wanted to fight the British.  Most of them had German blood, after all, and they were far more civilized than the Russians, or the French, both of whom he had a real problem with.  None the less, he kept the British surrounded, just to be sure.  Many historians question this move, on Hitler's part, because he probably could have spared some of those men to extract more from the French.

The French were outraged, of course.  They could not believe (as they saw it) that the British would take the first opportunity that came along to throw their hands in the air and leave their allies stranded (even today, British surrender jokes are still quite popular with many across the world, especially in France, while the French are largely admired for their fighting spirit, especially during the Great War).

The French did capitulate, however, 15 days later.  After making one last, valiant stand out side of Paris, the most costly engagement of the "Spring War", for both sides (The French took 55,000 casualties overall, the Germans suffered 40,000), it became apparent that France and it's ruined army could no longer repel German advances (though, in hind-sight, many historians dispute this).  The fall of Paris is said, by many to be the saddest day in European history.  The "City of Lights" had been badly damaged in the fighting, and many French cultural landmarks, including the Eiffel Tower, Arc de Triumph and large section of the Luv and Versailles were lost forever.  The French had no choice but to ask for terms.

With in two weeks, all of France north of the most southern part of the River Marne were surrender to the Nazis, along with the Alsace-Lorraine territory lost by the Germans at the end of the Great War.  The French were permitted to keep Paris.  Hitler, at first, contested this, until he saw the condition the city was in.  With noticeable damage covering at least 30% of the city, he saw that allowing the French to keep it would present them with a serious economic burden.  A circular territorial boundary of 20 km was drawn up from the center of the city to the north and east.  France also officially recognized the right of Nazi Germany over Belgium, Luxembourg, Poland, Norway, Denmark and The Netherlands.  France was to give up all extra-European territorial claims to the Germans.  Hitler was now the unquestioned master of Central and Western Europe.  Token reparations were also to be given to the Italians to cover for their “loses”.  Mussolini’s government received the equivalent, in today’s dollars, of $50 million for a loss of 100 men in the conflict.  The French saw it as a small price to pay to get out of a disastrous war.  The French and British governments have never been on friendly terms since.

The cease-fire with the Nazis was met with mixed reactions in Britain.  Some were relieved others were in disbelief that the great British people had cut and run, so to speak.  Winston Churchill resigned from the cabinet, making an angry speech on the floor of parliament declaring “This could have been our finest hour”. 

The peace was an extraordinarily soft one.  Britain too, was to agree to recognize Germany’s territorial gains.  Britain was to give back to Germany all of the territory ceded to it by Germany at the end of the Great War.  The independence of India was to be assured by the year 1944, something that the British had been working toward anyway.  Malta and Gibraltar were handed over to Germany.  Germany was to be granted unlimited, free market access to Britain’s oil supplies.  The British were not assist any other power in making war against Germany for the next 20 years.  Other than that, no reparations, no limits on the army or navy, no disgrace.  The treaty was signed on June 6th 1940.  Churchill, outraged, as usual, declared the day “D-Day” for “Disgrace and Defeat”.  Anger over the peace, across the nation died down, however, once the boys in khaki started coming home.

Hitler now set his sights on a strike against his biggest enemy, the Soviet “Man or Steel” Joseph Stalin.
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Normally, this scenario ends with the Soviets defeating Hitler and all of Europe being behind the Iron Curtain.  I hardly think so.  While Hitler could not have defeated the Soviets in the sense of his glorious vision, without allied help, Stalin would have been short of the one thing that keeps an army going, food.  The allies, especially the Americans, are largely reasonable for keeping the Russian and populace feed, mostly through the use of a certain canned pork product that we all know and love.

I want to know what you guys think, though.  How would this scenario have ended?

[12th Doctor]

How would this scenario have ended?

Even grimmer than what really happened in WWII. Amusingly I read an essay claiming that if Halifax had become PM, things would have turned out better than they did in real life...

How, may I ask?  BTW, I will give my own version of the history assumeing this had happened, in a few days.

[12th Doctor]

No, English policy since the 100 Years War was not to permit a great power to hold the beaches of Belgium or the Netherlands; it makes England too vulnerable to invasion.  England does not make peace with that consideration.

This is a policy that the Britsh allowed to slip many times.  I would see no exception in this case.

[12th Doctor]

No, English policy since the 100 Years War was not to permit a great power to hold the beaches of Belgium or the Netherlands; it makes England too vulnerable to invasion.  England does not make peace with that consideration.

This is a policy that the Britsh allowed to slip many times.  I would see no exception in this case.

Oh, when?  Even part of the entry into WWI was to due the possible German invasion of Belgium.

France controled the Beligian coast from the 1600's til the 1830's.  The Hapsburgs (Spain) controled the Netherlands for quite a long time.

[12th Doctor]

An alternate timeline at another board i've started to hang out at that goes about a different tack: what if the Halifax-Butler coup succeeded, resulting in a Britain that made peace with Germany?

The Big One .

ignore the prequels (everything before the titular 'The Big One', they're mostly background on that timeline's somewhat unusual characters, but they're largely unimportant in the base story and feature more prominently in the sequels).

Spoilers:

Essentially what happens is that, with the British out of the war the US begins to focus chiefly on the Pacific, basically heading off any possible Pearl Harbor. Germany attacks the USSR as per OTL except they capture Moscow; Stalin dies, Zhukov takes charge. In 1942 Germany asks Britain and Vichy France for troops, they refuse, and Germany invades them. The Royal Navy stages a 'breakout', taking the Royal Family along with quite a few important people and equipment. Many of them end up in the US. Germany demands the US hand them over. FDR says 'Molon Labe', the Germans decide to take him up on it and thus the US is dragged into a very bloody war, with US troops serving with the Russians on the Eastern front, and a very nasty sea war. Come 1947, the US has produced a large number of atom bombs. 200 of them are dropped on Germany via B-36s, ending World War II even if a few German troops (in warlord-states carved from the Ostfront) still fight on until 1960. Even then, some Germans end up as janisarries to the new Caliphate, which together with a Japan that absorbed China constitutes the bulk of a big mean US's worries, along with those of a de-USSR-ified Russia and an Indian/Thai/Australian alliance (an odd construct cobbled together by the aussies, british expatriates in India, and one very devious thai negotiator (Gandhi dies in an 'unfortunate' car accident).

From that point forward, it's basically an exploration into a world in which the authors' views are extended, or a more conservative kick-ass America and allies, an irrelevant, very peaceful Europe (Germany is peaceful indeed), and a real bias in favor of strategic bombing (Curtis LeMay becomes a celebrated US President, and in later times a sort-of saint). The odd bits are due to a series of immortal characters (so-called 'demons') who are in some cases thousands of years old and tend to work as private contractors (who by the 1980s basically run the government, which largely did away with civil service). Everything is effected, from the massive 1960s-type high-speed/low-quality cars to the hard-drive-less network computers to the orbital bombers.

Okay, other than the David Icke stuff you added at the end, this timeline is extremely improbable.  Why would Hitler want to go to war with FDR if he didn't have too?  Moreover, why would he waste his time invading a pacified France and Germany?  Why would he ask the for men?  Why would Stalin die?  Do you think he would acctually stay in Moscow if the Germans were literally at the door?  Wouldn't Germany have developed the Atomic Bomb first, since they were already further ahead until the massive bombing campaign and covert opperations by the British and Americans slowed things down?  Why would the Japanese not go tou war; in their minds, they were fighting for their livelyhoods, as they saw it, because of the embargos?

[12th Doctor]

Two different and mutually hostile powers, as coupled with support for the United Netherlands.  And remember 1588, England warred against Spain and eventually forced the Spanish Netherlands to be transferred to the Austrians.

Wow, they forced them to grant it to another Habsburg power... big improvment.

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Britain had never had it's entire army wiped out before.  That might have increased their willingness to let go of that, considerably.  In fact, peace at almost any price was being discussed in many of the meetings during Dunkirk.  Plus, if Germany had already over run these countries and dominated large areas of the Northern France, recongnizing German dominance of these areas would be a matter of reality.

Doesn't help Britain much to keep at war with Germany to keep the Nazis from dominating the Low Countries, to protect them from invasion if they have no army left to protect them from invasion.

[12th Doctor]

Opperation Sealion was a very real thing to the British, in 1940.  Looking back on it, it is easy for us to see that a coordinated amphibious assult by the Germans on Britain was quite impracticle, but the Brits sure as Hell didn't think this way at the time.  In fact, an invasion was expected.

"We shall fight them on the beaches...."

With no army to defead against an invasion, Britain would have been helpless, or so many in Britain thought at the time.

Hilter could have defeated the RAF, had both sides not shifted their focus to bombing cities.  With in a few weeks of the start of the Blitz the Luffaffe had the RAF on the ropes.  Most of the British radar sites were being bombed out faster than they could be repaired.  The Nazis were straffing British planes on the ground.  Oddly enough, the terror bombing of British cities probably saved the Brits, because it allowed the RAF enough time to recoup.

[12th Doctor]

i forgot to say...i think  the name of the book is "what if"..or something along those lines....good read if ur interested...

Acctually, I have read it, and I agree with the author (Andrew Roberts, for that essay) in many of the facts immediatly following the election of Halifax, but largely disagree with his out comes.  Thank you for reminding me of this tread, BTW.

[12th Doctor]

How would this scenario have ended?

Even grimmer than what really happened in WWII. Amusingly I read an essay claiming that if Halifax had become PM, things would have turned out better than they did in real life...

i actually read the scenario that's been posted up....it claims that eventually hitler's forces would have been forced into retreat, and would have been defeated by the USSR, who would then have set up communist governments all over Europe, from Russia itself, all the way down to Spain and Portugal, with the UK being the only exception.

This line of thought forgets one very important fact.  That being that, while Russia was able to mobalize militarily for this effort by using their vast resources and building up industry east of the Urals, the United States and Britain were still largely responsable for feeding the Red Army and Soviet populace during this period.