LibDem leadership election

[Sibboleth]

What's he done?

Rent boys:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=35154.0

Story that broke the news: http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/story_pages/news/news2.shtml

[Michael Z]

If only our media were as good at unveiling political corruption (which, I should imagine, is quite endemic at Westminster) as they are at exposing some MP bonking his secretary/rentboys/albino squirrels. Our PM can take us to war based on lies and stay safely in his job, but as soon as someone has an affair their career is ruined.

[Sibboleth]

If only our media were as good at unveiling political corruption (which, I should imagine, is quite endemic at Westminster) as they are at exposing some MP bonking his secretary/rentboys/albino squirrels.

Ah, but genuine corruption isn't very common at Westminster* (sure it happens, if on a relatively small scale, but not that often. To get *serious* corruption the civil service needs to be either corrupt or partisan; and for all their faults, our civil service is neither) which is why the whole Cash-for-Questions thing was such a big scandal (in a lot of other countries that sort of behavior is o/c normal practice).

IIRC someone once said that a Canadian politician is likely to be caught with his hand in a till, while a British politician is likely to be caught with his hand up someones skirt.

*It's not that there *aren't* genuine corruption stories to report, the problem (for the media) is that they're pretty much all at local government level.

[Ben.]

Oaten now facing pressure from within his constituency to quit and promt a by-election.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/01/24/nlib24.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/01/24/ixhome.html

...if there is a by-election, which i doubt, the a lot will be riding on the Tory performance - Winchester is a seat which should never have fallen to the LibDems.

The Tories ran a very good campaign in Cheadle, not that they got much credit for it, it would be interesting to see a by-election in a seat like Winchester, sadl i dont think it'll happen

[Sibboleth]

Oaten now facing pressure from within his constituency to quit and promt a by-election.

Not suprising. The pressure could build up a *lot* over the next few days and weeks... and voters sure do *hate* it when by-elections are trigged because of some form of sexual perversion... remember Eastleigh and the orange?

...if there is a by-election, which i doubt, the a lot will be riding on the Tory performance

True. The first real test of the new Tory electoral approach (which seems to be geared firmly at socially permissive white collar voters. And boy is Winchester full of *those*...)

- Winchester is a seat which should never have fallen to the LibDems.

True; Oaten only took it by, what? Two votes? in '97... interestingly a seat called Winchester was won by *Labour* in 1945; it was based more around the newer suburbs of Southants (like Eastleigh) than Winchester itself. O/c that was before the suburbs gentrified...

The Tories ran a very good campaign in Cheadle,

No they didn't; they ran a reasonable campaign (that's true) but they failed to put the boot into the LibDem candidate over his (dire) record on Stockport MBC. O/c that's just academic. Besides the by-election was back when scary, scary Howard was still (even if only technically) in charge of the Tory party; if a by-election were held now in a seat like Cheadle (ie; very rich, very white collar, socially liberal etc.) the Tories would be a shoo-in. And if they were to somehow fail to win a by-election in this imaginary seat, they might as well curl up and die... o/c in certain respects Winchester *is* a little bit like Cheadle...

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Yes, two votes.

[afleitch]

Winchester- if indeed there is a by-election - is the very seat the Conservatives need to win. The Lib Dems fell 4% points in 2005, Labour's vote went up the most and we had a 2.1% swing to the Tories.

Eastleigh and Romsey, two bordering Liberal seats also swung to the Tories, with Romsey being an ultra-marginal and Chris 'Whos?', Eastleigh alos with a small majority. So Lib Dem seats in that area swung slightly to the Tories (though neighbouring Tory seats swung to the Lib Dems :/ )

Yet I don't think the Conservatives could take this seat unless we see some of the Liberal votes switching to Labour out of apathy or whatever, but just enough to make the Tories task easier. How the Labour vote holds up in a seat like this would be the most interesting indication of current political fortune.

[Sibboleth]

We have no machine in Winchester whatsover; and IIRC we were under 10% in 2005.

[Ben.]

The Tories ran a very good campaign in Cheadle,

No they didn't; they ran a reasonable campaign (that's true) but they failed to put the boot into the LibDem candidate over his (dire) record on Stockport MBC.

Well if you compare it with previous Tory by-election, and even general election campaigns, it was pretty good… The Tories have less “by-election” form than Labour (and that’s saying something). I have to admit that the “new” Labour reputation for being a slick vote winning machine was always over rated and that was brought into sharp relief in the by-elections over the last few years in Leicester and Birmingham the Labour campaign was inferior to both the LibDems and even, to a limited extent, the Conservatives.

In the general election the best Labour, and this extended to a much lesser extent LibDems and Tories, campaigns where often those which steered clear of national party direction and template literature and simply fought, clever an consistent local campaigns.

As for Chedale I think that Reynard and the LibDem had high hopes of a massive by-election win, as it was the best they could do was repeat their general election success with a very low Labour turnout compounded by a TV squeeze.

Besides the by-election was back when scary, scary Howard was still (even if only technically) in charge of the Tory party; if a by-election were held now in a seat like Cheadle (ie; very rich, very white collar, socially liberal etc.) the Tories would be a shoo-in.

I agree, the national image of Howard was simply toxic beyond the core Tory vote his main contribution was a restoration of discipline within the Conservative Parliamentary Party and to a lesser extent restoring focus at Smith Square (or their new offices above that star bucks in London… how apt )

Cameron’s national image is far more sunny and positive, indeed for most people there really isn’t much more to Cameron than a sunny disposition and optimism, which may prove a problem further down the line (though I doubt he’ll let it come to that). Its easy to imagine the ladies that lunch and white collar families of Winchester, in a fine spring by-election warming very much to nice well spoken, married Tory leader who will no doubt crisscross the seat… what more they seem to have a well qualified, photogenic candidate from last time round who came close to knocking the LibDems off in neighbouring Romsey, Caroline Nokes… lots of chatter amongst Tories that if there is a by-election she’ll be under a lot of pressure to stand though the candidate in Winchester last time round is leader of the local Tories on the council and might/ or might not/ be a credible candidate as well.

Hmmm… I think we’ll have a better idea of what happens in the next few days and weeks, first of all I think Oaten got to see if he can save his marriage (its not surprising really when you hear the details of what he got up to), more importantly I doubt he can both save his marriage and remain an MP, what more I think Oaten would be incredibly brave to show his face at Westminster, let alone the commons! Any time over the next few weeks. Well as I say we’ll see.                      

[afleitch]

Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

Would the Lib Dems have apologised if there had been no Oaten scandal? Don't count on it. The party always has and always will resort to anything in order to win an election.

[Sibboleth]

Well if you compare it with previous Tory by-election, and even general election campaigns, it was pretty good…

That's not really saying much though

I have to admit that the “new” Labour reputation for being a slick vote winning machine was always over rated and that was brought into sharp relief in the by-elections over the last few years in Leicester and Birmingham the Labour campaign was inferior to both the LibDems and even, to a limited extent, the Conservatives.

Yes... but in both Brum and Leicester the traditional machines had broken down. Old fashioned machine politics did pretty well in Hartlepool, Livingston and Cathcart though
And the Tory campaign in Hodge Hill was just about non-existent... despite the win there in another by-election in the late '70's.
Come to think about it, old fashioned machine politics was what won Hodge Hill as well (whatwith Terry Davies sending out postal vote stuff to Labour voters not likely to turn up on polling day)...

As for Chedale I think that Reynard and the LibDem had high hopes of a massive by-election win, as it was the best they could do was repeat their general election success with a very low Labour turnout compounded by a TV squeeze.

I think they did think that initially. The key word being very much "initially". O/c Cheadle is a seat that the Tories should never, ever have lost in the first place... I mean the Labour equivilent would be losing Manchester Blackley...

Its easy to imagine the ladies that lunch and white collar families of Winchester, in a fine spring by-election warming very much to nice well spoken, married Tory leader who will no doubt crisscross the seat…

Damn snobs

Hmmm… I think we’ll have a better idea of what happens in the next few days and weeks, first of all I think Oaten got to see if he can save his marriage (its not surprising really when you hear the details of what he got up to),

The details are certainly *ahem* interesting... what is it with Hants M.P as "bizarre sexual acts" anyway?

what more I think Oaten would be incredibly brave to show his face at Westminster, let alone the commons!

Dennis Skinner will have fun...

[Sibboleth]

Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

FINALLY

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

Would the Lib Dems have apologised if there had been no Oaten scandal? Don't count on it. The party always has and always will resort to anything in order to win an election.

Well, if a little scandal about a fellow party member was all it took...

[afleitch]

Perhaps in 20 years Galloway, free or unfree   will also apologise for the alleged racist and anti-semitic campaign he and his supporters ran against Oona King.

[Ben.]

Now this may very well be nothing much, at this stage it probably is just that, but…

A LibDem, apparently a big noise in their East Anglia party, has defected to the Conservatives.   

http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/

The Westminster blogs are getting pretty excited at the moment with chatter about the prospect of defections by LibDem MPs, admittedly Brian Sedgemore (odious man!) claimed some Labour MPs where ready to defect when he did to the LibDem last year, but that was never accompanied with much chatter like what’s coming out of the lobbies at the moment, added to which unlike Labour in May the LibDems seem to be mired in sleaze and currently embroiled in an inconclusive and unconstructive Leadership election which is, in stark contrast to the Tories last year, doing nothing for them nationally.

It will be interesting to see what the likes of Clegg, Laws, Davey and Cable get up to from here on in… I’m still doubtful anything exciting will happen, but it’d be nice if it did.