walter mitty vs. nym.

[WalterMitty]

discuss w/maps.

[Nym90]

I think it would be a pretty close race.

You would probably win due to the fact that you could probably win at least a couple Northeastern states.

[Supersoulty]

In real life... there would def. be a social conservative third party.  However, since Eric is acctually more socially conservative than Walter (but not much) if would create some interesting senarios.



All states shown in grey would be within 4%.  Walter suffers from depressed turnout in the South and Mountain States, but still manages to carry them.  Walter probably takes PA, NJ and Maryland, thanks to a strong showing in the suburbs and exurbs of those states.  Walter also does well in any area where there are affluent gays, thus Maine, California, Oregon and Hawaii are all in play, while Florida is a complete lock.

Nym does better in the plains and midwest than a usual Democrat, thus all those states, except the heavily Republican ones are a lock for him.  He also takes back Tennessee and Arkanas for the Dems, thanks you low Republican turnout and ticket spliting.

Kerry States where Nym does better:
Michigan +5%-6%
Wisconsin +4%-5%

Bush States where Walter does better:
Florida +4%-6%
Nevada +4%-5%
Colorado +2%
Virgnia +1%

[WalterMitty]

i would definitely take a beating in the rust belt, even in the normally republican-leaning ohio.

i think id have a fighting chance in minnesota and wisconsin.

the south would be a big question mark.  i am a native southerner, however.  so id have that going for me.  id also likely do better among blacks than most republicans do.  nym would definitely win arkansas and likely louisiana.

my best guess:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nym is decent on social issues. WalterMitty is not because he supports this war in Iraq. I don't think WalterMitty would do very well in the north-east as a result.

[Supersoulty]

Nym is decent on social issues. WalterMitty is not because he supports this war in Iraq. I don't think WalterMitty would do very well in the north-east as a result.

That's why I usually assume that we are running a generic election when I make predictions.  Certainly, almost anyone who supports the War in Iraq would lose right now.

[MaC]

Though I don't advocate either being president, I'll have to go with Nym90.  A Clinton-type democrat would be tolerable. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's a map. It would have been worse for the Republicans if they had ran an extremist, but Iraq war fatigue makes Nym win anyways with a result fairly similar to that of 2000 and 2004.

[bullmoose88]

Jfern,

Just curious, is there any republican on these boards who could beat Nym (or any democrat for that matter) given how the nation would be against the Rs?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Jfern,

Just curious, is there any republican on these boards who could beat Nym (or any democrat for that matter) given how the nation would be against the Rs?

Well, it is a lot of speculation really until you get into the actual campaign. You don't really know for sure.

 If a RINO like Bloomberg was somehow able to trick the Republican base into turning out for him, he'd obviously win. 

[WalterMitty]

jfern, im an anti-union, gun grabber who strongly supports gay marriage.  i doubt id win wva.

[Displayed name]

Nym is more upbeat and optimistic. That wins it for him more than any stands on the issues.

[dazzleman]

This is a really tough choice.

I like and respect both of these guys, even though I don't always agree with them on the issues.

Wally is nominally a Republican, though leans toward the liberal side on many issues.  On some things, he has a reasonable point, to a degree, but on others, he's way out there.

Eric is a thoughtful and positive liberal, though not too far to the left.  I disagree with him on quite a few issues, though with unlike most liberals, I can see how he logically arrives at his positions, even if I diverge from his reasoning somewhere along the way.

Eric is also more predictable than Wally and more consistent.  Both are somewhat socially liberal, though Wally may be more socially liberal than Eric.  On economic issues, Wally is definitely more conservative, though he combines conservatism on labor issues with extreme liberalism in advocacy of significantly expanded government programs that go beyond anything that Eric would advocate.

I think I'd go with Eric, by a hair.  No offense to Wally, whom I like and respect quite a bit.  I tend to look at the big picture and see a need to have a consistent theme or philosophy across all major issues, and that is an area where Eric does better than many people here.

[Hi! I'm Bill McNeal]

I really like and respect both of them. But, due to the fact that I've had enough of Iraq, and I'm watching two of my best friends heading over, I could not support WalterMitty based on that issue. Nym gets my vote.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is a really tough choice.

I like and respect both of these guys, even though I don't always agree with them on the issues.

Wally is nominally a Republican, though leans toward the liberal side on many issues.  On some things, he has a reasonable point, to a degree, but on others, he's way out there.

Eric is a thoughtful and positive liberal, though not too far to the left.  I disagree with him on quite a few issues, though with unlike most liberals, I can see how he logically arrives at his positions, even if I diverge from his reasoning somewhere along the way.

Eric is also more predictable than Wally and more consistent.  Both are somewhat socially liberal, though Wally may be more socially liberal than Eric.  On economic issues, Wally is definitely more conservative, though he combines conservatism on labor issues with extreme liberalism in advocacy of significantly expanded government programs that go beyond anything that Eric would advocate.

I think I'd go with Eric, by a hair.  No offense to Wally, whom I like and respect quite a bit.  I tend to look at the big picture and see a need to have a consistent theme or philosophy across all major issues, and that is an area where Eric does better than many people here.

Nym is actually not that far off from me on the issues. He just seems to feel the need to hold back his true feelings. The main difference between him and I is that I'm far more outspoken.

Nym needs to stop respecting those that seek to destroy America. Those calling me "JFraud" for arguing correct statistical arguments made me lose any stupid diplomatic tendancies that I might have had on this board.