Analysis of House Races- 2004

[DarthKosh]

Thune is saying he will decide and announce int eh next few days if he will enter the House race in SD or the Senate race.

He will problely win either one.

[jravnsbo]

Gosh Senator John Thune sounds so good!

[DarthKosh]

Gosh Senator John Thune sounds so good!

He already should be considering the last election.

[jravnsbo]

Tell me abou tit, I detailed that whole fiasco in here somewhere.  

Thing s I don't dislike Johnson, but HATE DASCHLE and his obstructism.  Then he claims to be so conservative and helpful to SD when he is home and then is Kennedy's best Buddy in DC, arrggghh.

[jravnsbo]

Thune has announced he will not run for the House.

[jravnsbo]

Anyone notice that the Justice Dept.  approved the Texas House map as NOT being against the civil rights act?

[DarthKosh]

Anyone notice that the Justice Dept.  approved the Texas House map as NOT being against the civil rights act?

Plus the courts won't throw it out now.

[jaichind]

Anyone notice that the Justice Dept.  approved the Texas House map as NOT being against the civil rights act?

At least the delegation from Texas in terms of balance between GOP and Democrats will be more reflective of the true balance between GOP and Democrats.  That the Democrats have more House members than the GOP in Texas always struck me as absurd.  Granted, many of the Democrats are conservative Democrats. Still it stuck me as unfair.

[jravnsbo]

yes this could be a NET gain of 7 seats for the GOP.

Wish they'd get rid of REp. Sheila Jackson Lee, but I think she is still in a safe district.  

[DarthKosh]

yes this could be a NET gain of 7 seats for the GOP.

Wish they'd get rid of REp. Sheila Jackson Lee, but I think she is still in a safe district.  

Isn't she in central urban district?

[jravnsbo]

She is in the 18th district which is in Houston.

[DarthKosh]

She is in the 18th district which is in Houston.

Then that is a Demseat forever.

[jravnsbo]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Ratings.htm

good site for telling which races are the most competitive.

[jravnsbo]

AZ-02 - GOP Primary - Freshman Rep. Trent Franks vs. Radio Broadcaster Rick
Murphy.

CA-12 - DEM Primary - Rep. Tom Lantos vs. Ro Khanna vs. Maad Abu-Ghazalah.

Ghazalah is a former Libertarian so his candidacy is a non-issue.
However, Mr. Khanna is challenging pro-war democrat Lantos in this VERY liberal
district. He has also been endorsed by the California Democratic Council, making
Lantos the ONLY incumbent democratic congressman NOT to be endorsed.

CA-46 - GOP Primary - Rep. Dana Rohrabacher vs. Bob Dornan.

Rohrabacher is the favorite to win. However, if the main contingent
of GOP March primary voters in this district are social conservatives, Dornan
could win the primary in an upset. If he does, expect this moderate district to
vote for the Democratic nominee in November.

GA-04 - DEM Primary - Rep. Denise Majette vs. fmr. Rep. Cynthia McKinney.

IF McKinney runs, she could make this race interesting but look for
Majette to win again.

IL-02 - DEM Primary - Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. vs. fmr. Rep. Mel Reynolds.

Reynolds was convicted in 1995 of child molestation and obstruction
of justice and Jackson won the subsequent special election. Look for Jackson to
win by a comfortable margin but Reynolds still has some support.

IL-08 - GOP Primary - Rep. Phil Crane vs. Attorney David W. Phelps (NOT the fmr.
Dem Congressman)

Crane was first elected in 1969 and is the senior most member of the
House GOP Caucus. He was turned down last year (AGAIN!) for the Chairmanship of
the Ways & Means Committee and has checked in for alcohol rehab. He has had
close calls before. Will this be the year he's defeated?

IN-04 - GOP Primary - Rep. Steve Buyer vs. fmr. Congressional aide Dennis Hardy

Buyer has recently come under fire for alleged lying about leaving
to go into active duty in Iraq. Will this be his political death knell for
Buyer?

MD-01 GOP Primary - Rep. Wayne Gilchrest vs. State Sen. Richard Colburn

In 2002, the liberal Gilchrest did not-so-well against an unknown
conservative challenger in this socially conservative district. Colburn, a state
senator, should do well in March's primary.

MD-06 - GOP Primary - Rep. Roscoe Bartlett vs. Frederick Co. State's Attorney
Scott Rolle.

Bartlett has a serious challenger in Rolle in this conservative
district. Rolle assails Bartlett for not being as conservative as he claims.

MO-05 - DEM Primary - Rep. Karen McCarthy vs. Foreign Policy Consultant Jamie
Metzl vs. Public Policy Consultant Damian Thorman (so far!)

McCarthy is known for her alleged abuse of staff and high turnover
in her office. She recently checked into rehab and is facing calls to retire.

NJ-05 - GOP Primary - Rep. Scott Garrett vs. state Assemlyman Dave Russo

Garrett, a conservative two-time challenger to fmr. Rep. Marge
Roukema won the 2002 primary with 43% (when Roukema decided to retire) against a
plethora of moderate challengers. Russo, the runner up in the 2002 GOP primary
in this district, may give Garrett a taste of his own medicine when he will
likely be the sole moderate primary challenger to Garrett in this socially
liberal-to-moderate leaning district.

NY-24 - GOP Primary - Rep. Sherwood "Sherry" Boehlert vs. Cayuga Co. legislator
Dr. David Walrath.

Walrath, despite being far behind in campaign monies, almost upset
to moderate-to-liberal Boehlert in last year's primary. Expect funding from
conservative groups next year.

NY-29 - GOP Primary - Rep. Amo Houghton vs. Monroe Co. legislator Mark Assini

The socially liberal Dow chemical scion could face a serious primary
- IF he decides to run for re-election.

PA-09 - GOP Primary - Rep. Bill Shuster vs. business consultant Michael
DelGrosso

Shuster, elected in 2001 to succeed his legendary father, is
embroiled in a possible scandal regarding allegations from a former aide who
alleges he was assigned to spy on DelGrosso's fundraisers and campign functions.

VA-08 DEM Primary - Rep. Jim Moran vs. fmr. congressional aide Andy Rosenburg

Moran found himself in hot water when he was quoted saying
potentially anti-Semetic remarks at a townhall meeting on Iraq. He could lose
his primary in an upset even though bigger hitters have stood down.

---got this off another board--very good list of incumbants being challenged itn eh primaries

[DarthKosh]

Good list but not many will lose.  Maybe B-1 Bob can will.

[zorkpolitics]

---got this off another board--very good list of incumbants being challenged itn eh primaries

Looks like good info, What's the link to the source?

[jravnsbo]

no link the guy that did it made the list himself through research.

---got this off another board--very good list of incumbants being challenged itn eh primaries

Looks like good info, What's the link to the source?

[jravnsbo]

Files: Calif. Congresswoman Broke Rules    
By ERICA WERNER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - California Rep. Jane Harman's 1994 campaign for Congress benefited from $21,000 illegally funneled from a Hughes Aircraft Co. fund-raising event, newly released documents show.

The records were made public by the Federal Election Commission (news - web sites) this week after being discovered during a review of closed enforcement cases, a commission spokesman said.

Harman, now the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, was never punished because a federal judge said her campaign didn't commit deliberate or serious violations.

At issue was an Oct. 29, 1993, fund-raiser Hughes held for Harman at its El Segundo, Calif., headquarters. Corporations are prohibited from donating to federal candidates, and the money was given by individual company employees so that it would not violate the law.

However, a Hughes employee collected the money and gave it to Harman's campaign staff, violating a prohibition against corporations acting as "conduits" for contributions, a judge said.

Hughes paid a $40,000 civil penalty to the FEC in 1996 to resolve the matter, the records show.


U.S. District Judge Christina Snyder in August 1999 found that Harman's campaign violated the law but refused the FEC's request for a fine, injunction or demand for repayment. She noted in part that Harman's campaign had apparently relied on incorrect legal advice from a Hughes attorney.


The release of the documents is a belated final chapter to Harman's campaign for a second term in Congress, which she won by a mere 812 votes over Susan Brooks, former mayor of Ranchos Palos Verdes. During the race, Brooks angered Democrats by filing a complaint with the FEC about the Hughes fund-raiser for Harman.


Since then Hughes Aircraft has been sold to Raytheon and Harman has become a leading intelligence authority in Congress, after a two-year break from Washington for an unsuccessful run for governor.

[jravnsbo]

Texas Rep. Hall to Switch to Republicans    

[© Tweed the Younger]

Texas Rep. Hall to Switch to Republicans    

Long overdue; dissapointing, however.

[JNB]

  The news about Rep. Harman may have put her in danger if her district either had its old lines and demographics, but her district in the 90s made a large jump towrds teh Democrats, from giving GHW Bush a 60-39 win in 88 to giving Gore 52% in 2000(under the old lines).

  As for Rep. Hall, he allways has been a nominal Democrat to the point that when it comes to vote counting, he is allways placed as a reliable GOP vote.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Hall voted with the GOP about 80% of the time, I believe.

[jravnsbo]

Texas Rep. Hall to Switch to Republicans    
2 hours, 18 minutes ago  Add Politics - U. S. Congress to My Yahoo!
 

By DAVID ESPO and SUZANNE GAMBOA, AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON - Texas Rep. Ralph Hall switched parties Friday night, filing for re-election as a Republican after nearly a quarter-century as one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress.

   

"I've always said that if being a Democrat hurt my district I would switch or I would resign," Hall said in an interview with The Associated Press. He said GOP leaders had recently refused to place money for his district in a spending bill and "the only reason I was given was I was a Democrat."


In an interview in which he said he had filed to run as a Republican, he also said he didn't agree with "all these guys running against the president."


Hall's switch follows a GOP-led drive — bitterly contested by Democrats — to remake Texas' congressional districts more to their liking. Party strategists contend they can gain five or more seats through a mid-decade redistricting, a change that could greatly strengthen their grip on power in the House.


Before Hall's move, the House had 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, 1 Democrat-leaning independent and 1 vacancy.


In addition to representing a personal change, Hall's defection had historic overtones. His district in Texas includes territory once represented in Congress by the late Sam Rayburn, who served as a Democratic speaker for much of the time between 1940 and 1961.


House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., said he looked forward to working with Hall in the majority party.


"Ralph is a man of courage and a man of great conviction," Hastert said. "Common sense continues to guide him in Washington and now in the Republican Party."


Fellow Texan Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, called Hall on Friday to welcome him to the party.


"Democrats are reaping what they've sown," DeLay said. "Their leaders have lined up behind Howard Dean (news - web sites)'s brand of angry, intolerant politics. They've made their message clear: 'moderates need not apply' and that's a sad trend for a once-great party."


President Bush (news - web sites) also praised Hall.


"I welcome Congressman Ralph Hall to the Republican Party," Bush said. "Ralph is a close friend of the Bush family. He is a well-respected leader of the highest integrity, and a tireless advocate for the people of Texas."


Rep. Martin Frost, Texas' most senior Democrat, declined comment late Friday.


Republican sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Hall privately relayed word of his intentions to White House officials and other senior GOP officials earlier in the day.


Hall, 80, was first elected to the House in 1980.


Hall has long been among the most conservative Democrats in Congress. Speculation that he might switch parties first surfaced in 1995, when the GOP gained control of the House for the first time in 40 years.


He said then he wouldn't, arguing that it would be better to try and move the Democratic party toward the middle.

   



Hall's sons, one a Texas judge and the other a lawyer, had been considered possible candidates for their father's congressional seats if Hall resigned. Hall said Friday his party switch would make it easier for his sons to run should he eventually resign, but he added, "Neither of my sons seems interested in coming to Congress."

Democrats have sued to block the new redistricting plan, arguing it violates minority rights. The Justice Department (news - web sites) has approved the plan, and a court ruling on its legality is expected shortly.

Texas Republican Party spokesman Ted Royer said Hall was the 174th elected Texas Democrat to join the Republican Party since 1992.

--makes it a little harder to gain control though for Dems.

[Sibboleth]

So the GOP have picked up a new congressman on paper at least.
In practice he has been a Republican for a very long time...

Glad he's gone.

[DarthKosh]

So the GOP have picked up a new congressman on paper at least.
In practice he has been a Republican for a very long time...

Glad he's gone.

Soon all the Dems are are going to be hard lefties.