Analysis of House Races- 2004

[© Tweed the Younger]

So the GOP have picked up a new congressman on paper at least.
In practice he has been a Republican for a very long time...

Glad he's gone.

Why are you glad he's gone?

What's with the &#8212 stuff?

[NHPolitico]

Utah has a Democrat as one of it's representatives?
Matheson is toast.

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

 

There's talk that Cooksey could run against Alexander. I'm not sure how much of a slam dunk that would be, but the divided GOP electorate seriously boosted Alexander.

[NHPolitico]

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

Good Picks. Not certain abt the first though. Know a bit abt it-being my home state Alexander represents a decently GOP (though less so after gerrymandering) district. Still he has one of the most conservative records for a democratic representative so he's looking to the future. Decent grassroots operation too.
My guess is the GOP's best shot to retain this district (retiring GOP Rep. Cooksey held it till 2002) was to win it in 2002. Alexander will give them a hell of a fight next year.
Its still competitive but frankly leans a bit democratic for 2004!

Rodgers is more vulnerable but he was an Alabama Senate minority leader and has a lot of grassroots strength. The district is pretty much split even between the parties and he won it against a strong contender in 2002 (Joe Turnham I think) Next year he will have the advantages of incumbency behind him and that's a big factor in the South.

Max Burns is endangered- thats for sure. Its a VERY democratic district and two years isnt enough time to consolidate. He certainly won't face a ridiculous candidate like Walker next time around Still he has influence in congress....President of the GOP freshman class and all He has been effective for his district and He wont plan on giving up his seat easy- thats for sure!!

Look forward to others responses as well.

I'll take your word for it that Burns is the president of the 02 class. It's odd, though, because I figured such an honor was given to congressmen who were good bets for re-election. Jeb Bradley in NH-1 is the secretary of the class and will coast to re-election this year.

[jravnsbo]

Cooksey was very popular there and would probably win it too.

Utah has a Democrat as one of it's representatives?
Matheson is toast.

Rodney Alexander (LA-5) doesn't look very vunerable at the moment.

Mike Rodgers(AL-3) could be in serious trouble, ditto Max Burns(GA-12)

 

There's talk that Cooksey could run against Alexander. I'm not sure how much of a slam dunk that would be, but the divided GOP electorate seriously boosted Alexander.

[jravnsbo]

Race Is on to Replace Janklow
 With the South Dakota congressman bowing out after his conviction in a fatal crash, more than a dozen seek the state's U.S. House seat.

 
      Times Headlines  
 
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Inside the 2004 Campaign Tool Chest: Blogs and Online Voting
 
 
Race Is on to Replace Janklow
 
 
more >
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
 JANKLOW WILLIAM J HERSETH STEPHANIE  
 
 SOUTH DAKOTA ELECTIONS  
 
 THE NATION  
 
 SOUTH DAKOTA  
 
 ELECTIONS  
 

 

   
 
 
 
 
 
 
By P.J. Huffstutter, Times Staff Writer


CHICAGO — In the weeks before Christmas, attorney Stephanie Herseth was practically glued to her telephone. She checked in with family. She rang up friends. She hailed her neighbors, her clients, her students at South Dakota State University — even the occasional stranger — with holiday greetings. And with talk of politics.

In the wake of Republican Rep. William J. Janklow's manslaughter conviction last month and his subsequent resignation from Congress, more than a dozen candidates in this rural state have been campaigning for South Dakota's only House seat.

     
 
 
   
     
 
Herseth is one. Her competition includes a farmer, an accountant, a utilities commissioner, a mayor, a state senator and even a retired U.S. congressman.

While the number of candidates is small in comparison to the more than 125 who obtained enough signatures to be on California's recall ballot, it's still a lot for a state that has fewer than half a million registered voters.

"I'm not taking anything for granted," said Herseth, a Democrat who lost the 2002 U.S. House race to Janklow by a few thousand votes. "When I decided to run, I made that decision regardless of who else ran. But the political landscape here is totally different because of what happened last August."

On a hot summer day, on a back road just south of Jank- low's hometown of Flandreau, S.D., the politician ran a stop sign at an estimated 70 mph, striking and killing a 55-year-old motorcyclist.

Janklow, who was found guilty of second-degree manslaughter and three lesser charges, is facing up to 11 years in prison, an $11,000 fine and the end of his political career. His resignation is effective Jan. 20, the day of his sentencing hearing at the Moody County Circuit Courthouse in Flandreau.

However, Janklow's attorney recently filed a motion asking for either a new trial or an acquittal on the manslaughter charge. The document claims prosecutors did not present enough evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Janklow was guilty of the felony charge.

The congressman and his attorney, Ed Evans, declined to comment on the matter.

Few political figures in this state have bothered to distance themselves from Janklow since his legal troubles began. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), who was subpoenaed by the defense and testified in the manslaughter case, repeatedly has praised Janklow for the good he accomplished during his tenure as state attorney general and a four-term governor.

"In public life, I would hope that a person is remembered not for the last thing he did, but for the best thing," Daschle said in a statement after the guilty verdict. "I believe that Bill Janklow has done a lot of 'best things.' "

Janklow's departure, however, will leave the state without its only vote in the House until a special election is held June 1. South Dakota law requires that a special election be held within 90 days after a U.S. House member resigns — unless, as is the case with Janklow, that date is within six months of a previously scheduled election.

Voters will decide two issues June 1: The open special election will determine who will serve out Janklow's term. And the state primary that day will determine the Republican and Democratic candidates who will be among those vying for a two-year term that begins in January 2005.

Whoever wins the June special election will be considered the incumbent in the November general election. However, it is possible that the candidate who serves out Janklow's term still could lose on the primary ballot.

State Republican officials say they want to avoid a split in the party at all costs. Back in 1962, the last time South Dakota had a special election, Republican Sen. Francis Case won the party's nomination but died before the general election. The state party was split over who would replace Case, and Democrat George S. McGovern beat the Republicans and won the Senate seat.

Herseth is widely seen as the leading contender for the Democratic special election nomination, which the party is expected to announce by the end of January. The Republican slot — as well as the possibility of a slew of independent candidates — appears to be wide open.

Jeff Partridge, a city councilman in Rapid City, S.D., elected just this year, has begun touting his "conservative approach" to local newspapers. Friends have been talking to Steve Kirby, a former state lieutenant governor, to convince him to run for Congress — and he has started analyzing the competition.

Larry Diedrich, a Republican state senator from Elkton, said he had already started outlining potential campaign stops and budgets.

"It's going to be an odd election," Diedrich said. "This is our California campaign craziness, I suppose."

Regardless of who wins in June, much of South Dakota's political establishment is uneasy about the circumstances that have led to the election.

"It does feel, at times, that we're dancing on graves," said Jason Schulte, executive director for the state Democratic Party. "I'd be lying if I said we didn't feel bad about the fact that a man lost his life, and another man may lose his freedom, for this special election to happen."

[jravnsbo]

No Arizona rematch
    Democrat George Cordova, who lost a close race for a newly created Arizona congressional seat in 2002, will not seek a rematch, party leaders said Monday.
    Many Democrats believed a rematch between Mr. Cordova and Republican Rick Renzi represented the party's best chance to take over the seat, United Press International reports. Mr. Renzi narrowly won the 2002 contest in the state's 1st Congressional District, 49 percent to 46 percent.
    Mr. Cordova's decision clears the way for Coconino County Supervisor Paul Babbitt, brother of former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, to run unopposed for the party's nomination.
     

[zorkpolitics]

The current Rothenberg Political Report has an analysis of Senate, House and Governor races.  A subscription is needed to see the analysis, but all the competitive House races are listed at the free site.  As of Jan 10, only 17 Republican and 15 Democratic seats are listed as competitive.  With such a small number of competitive seats it is unlikely the Democrats can win control of the House.  Given the new TX redistricting the Republicans will very likely expand their control.
see:
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

[DarthKosh]

The current Rothenberg Political Report has an analysis of Senate, House and Governor races.  A subscription is needed to see the analysis, but all the competitive House races are listed at the free site.  As of Jan 10, only 17 Republican and 15 Democratic seats are listed as competitive.  With such a small number of competitive seats it is unlikely the Democrats can win control of the House.  Given the new TX redistricting the Republicans will very likely expand their control.
see:
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

Texas has made sure the Dems will not take the house.

[Sibboleth]

The Texas Gerrymander in theory acts as a safeguard for the GOP. The Dems might make some strong gains elsewhere, but because of the Texan plan, will struggle to get the GOP majority below 5.

[DarthKosh]

The Texas Gerrymander in theory acts as a safeguard for the GOP. The Dems might make some strong gains elsewhere, but because of the Texan plan, will struggle to get the GOP majority below 5.

There is no place in the country where they can get 14 seats to get with in five.

[NHPolitico]

The Texas Gerrymander in theory acts as a safeguard for the GOP. The Dems might make some strong gains elsewhere, but because of the Texan plan, will struggle to get the GOP majority below 5.

You'd have to see a huge anti-Bush tide to get there. There are enough districts split 40-40 and a fight for the middle 20 that it could happen. It would have to be a totally one-sided election result.

You'd boot out Heather Wilson, Anne Northup, Charlie Bass, the Iowa GOP delegation, freshmen like Virginia Brown-Waite, Republicans in Gore seats like Gerlach, Johnson, Simmons and so on.

[Sibboleth]

Er... you all seem to be misinterpreting me...

What I mean is that IF the Dems can make strong/solid gains elsewhere they would still struggle to get the GOP's majority below 5 seats in the House, due to the Texan map.

[DarthKosh]

Er... you all seem to be misinterpreting me...

What I mean is that IF the Dems can make strong/solid gains elsewhere they would still struggle to get the GOP's majority below 5 seats in the House, due to the Texan map.

Sorry then.

[jravnsbo]

Good site, thanks.

The current Rothenberg Political Report has an analysis of Senate, House and Governor races.  A subscription is needed to see the analysis, but all the competitive House races are listed at the free site.  As of Jan 10, only 17 Republican and 15 Democratic seats are listed as competitive.  With such a small number of competitive seats it is unlikely the Democrats can win control of the House.  Given the new TX redistricting the Republicans will very likely expand their control.
see:
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

[jravnsbo]

as to person about IA delegation.  They are safe seats, dems tried last time hard and were all defeated soundly.  They may have a chance in 2006 as Rep King ( west IA) and Nussle , budget chairman  I think, wboth have expressed interest in running for Governor.

[DarthKosh]

as to person about IA delegation.  They are safe seats, dems tried last time hard and were all defeated soundly.  They may have a chance in 2006 as Rep King ( west IA) and Nussle , budget chairman  I think, wboth have expressed interest in running for Governor.

Your right in Iowa the best chance for Dems was 2002.

[nclib]

From article:

[Ralph Hall argued] that it would be better to try and move the Democratic party toward the middle.

The middle?? Hall was more conservative than most Northeastern Republicans and even some Sun Belt Republicans.

--makes it a little harder to gain control though for Dems.

Actually, I think Hall had said that as a Democrat he might have voted for Hastert if he was the deciding vote.

[Sibboleth]

Hall was just about the most conservative Democrat since Thurmond switched to the GOP...
A Democrat in name only, now a Republican because he was afraid of losing his seat.

[NHPolitico]

Hall was just about the most conservative Democrat since Thurmond switched to the GOP...
A Democrat in name only, now a Republican because he was afraid of losing his seat.

If he wants to die in Congress as a Republican, that's fine with me. The TX-GOP and the NRCC can spend the money on some other race.

[NHPolitico]

as to person about IA delegation.  They are safe seats, dems tried last time hard and were all defeated soundly.  They may have a chance in 2006 as Rep King ( west IA) and Nussle , budget chairman  I think, wboth have expressed interest in running for Governor.

2002 was a good year for the GOP. If you had a similarly bad year for the GOP, some could fall.

[Sibboleth]

I've no problem with Hall crossing the floor, and to be honest he should have done it years ago.

[NHPolitico]

I've no problem with Hall crossing the floor, and to be honest he should have done it years ago.

I think if he thought there was a chance that the party would go in Lieberman's direction and not Dean's, there wasn't anything peculiar about waiting.

[jravnsbo]

You just se eit in the South, Dems are discouraged.  You have 5 people retiring as they know that their party will not gaint he majority int he Senate.  

Next int eh House Hall tried to move them more center, but failed.  Seeing that the Dems would be int he minority for along period , plus redistrcting he bolted.

[NHPolitico]

You just se eit in the South, Dems are discouraged.  You have 5 people retiring as they know that their party will not gaint he majority int he Senate.  

Next int eh House Hall tried to move them more center, but failed.  Seeing that the Dems would be int he minority for along period , plus redistrcting he bolted.

I think of the true retirements (not those leaving for higher races), the Dems are way behind of the GOP. I can't understand why there aren't more Dems retiring.

[NHPolitico]

Bobby Jindal is looking to restart his Louisiana political career...

Bobby and Supriya Jindal have put their Highland Road home on the market and have bought a house in Kenner.  The unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor is making the move with an eye toward running in the First Congressional District this fall. A source close to him said he will state his intentions by the end of the month.