PA 13

[jdscott]

I sort of agree with you.  I honestly don't think Melissa wanted the issue to be about race.  I don't think people in Montco even know what section 8 is (unless you live in the handful of boroughs that have any substantail sec. 8 housing in the county) let alone understand the racial overtones of the issue.

However, I think some of those around her (not necessarily even part of her campaign, I'll call them "advisers") knew how some people (but not all) in the NE would take the Street/Hoeffel mail piece.

One must be honest about the fact that race is an issue in the NE.  And certainly it is not just Rs that have used election tactics with racial overtones (the 01 Democratic DA primary comes to mind).

And certainly the person or persons distributing the Al Sharpton flyer in the (I seem to recall) the 35th ward knew the implications of that piece.   Although I do not believe Brown's campaign was involved in that.

In the end Melissa has, I think a more, compelling issue in Med Mal anyway.  Especailly because it is something that affects the entire district not just the NE.  (which is by the way another reason she might have lost- it seems that she ignored places like Abington and the Morelands in favor of putting all her eggs in the NE and hoping the county GOP would pull her through in Montco)

[Keystone Phil]

Montco is going to be close, especially because Schwartz is a State Senator out there. Brown is going to win the NE not just because of Section reform but because of the med. mal. issue (the issue is a concern of seniors).

I know your a Dem, but who will you be supporting?

[jdscott]

Yeah I would vote for Allyson.  I don't live in the district so its kinda of a moot question.

But I am much more interested in how you think Brown can win in the NE.

I agree that Allyson will run behind of Kerry east of the Blvd.  thats a given because Meeghan will not be pushing her at all however Marge will be.

The presidentail surge factor in the NE, although I do not have those numbers, is probably significant.  Those people are coming out for the Presidential and are more likely to vote party line when faced with unfamiliar candidates.

Just a quick run down of the 2000 numbers show how far Brown will have to come:

41st ward- Gore wins by 33 points
55th ward - Gore wins by 18 points
62nd ward- Gore wins by 40 points
64th ward- Gore wins by 12 points
65th ward- Gore wins by 37 points

The Santorum/Klink match up is also interesting.  Klink was DOA by election day and had no presence in SE PA but in those wards the numbers were:

41st- Klink wins by 1300 votes
55th- San. wins by 750 votes
62nd - Klink wins by 2000 votes
64th- San. wins by 600 votes
65th- Klink wins by 1700 votes

Klink won that part of the city by 3650 votes

And Street actually got around 35% in the 62nd.  Katz won the ward by only 24 points.  Which is small compared to his margins in other NE wards.

Based on those numbers I just do not think Brown can withstand the numbers Kerry will put up.   Even given the fact that Allyson will run behind Kerry and Brown will run ahead of Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

I think this whole Presidential influence on the race is getting out of hand. Sure Kerry will help Schwartz here but not as much as many think. Brown did great in 2002. She received 47% that year in an area of the state that Rendell did great in. Brown will win this race.

(What district do you live in? You seem to know this district very well. I guess PA 8?)

[jdscott]

No I was living in center city (2nd CD) while in law school.  I am now transitioning to NYC to start work.  (I have time to post to this site because I am in limbo between the bar and work starting).

My parents house was in the old 13th CD and is now in Gerlach's district (which I think is now the 6th).  The redistricting got me all confused.

[Keystone Phil]

No I was living in center city (2nd CD) while in law school.  I am now transitioning to NYC to start work.  (I have time to post to this site because I am in limbo between the bar and work starting).

My parents house was in the old 13th CD and is now in Gerlach's district (which I think is now the 6th).  The redistricting got me all confused.

CD 2. That's a district I would never want to live in (Fattah's district). Oh and yes, Gerlach's district is now the PA 6.

[jdscott]

Yeah well that district has a wide swath of places.  I was living in Rittenhouse Square.  The 2nd CD includes North Philly, most of West Philly and Germantown but also Wynnefield, Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, Mt. Airy, Oak Lane, Cheltenham, Olney, and Feltonville.

So, its not as monolithic as you might think.

[jdscott]

Also except for a blanket statement about how you don't think the Pres. race will effect the voting you haven't given me anything concrete.

I would have at least thrown the difference between Rendell and Hoeffel's numbers at me.   Or Perzel, Kenney, O'Brien etc. numbers compared to Gore's or Rendell's.

[Keystone Phil]

I would have at least thrown the difference between Rendell and Hoeffel's numbers at me.  

I did state that. I said that Rendell won this area easily and Brown managed to get 47%. That's impressive.

[jdscott]

I meant a litte more precisely.   Like I said before I am really interested in what other people think about the mirco politics of this race.

And in general I agree Rendell had no coattails but I think it would be hard to say that 2002 was not an unusual year.  The president and the republican party recieved an high level of support in the aftermath of 9/11.    I don't think the same logic can possiblly be applied in this cycle unless something catetrosphic occurs in the coming weeks.

[Sibboleth]

Bear in mind that the NE Philly part of PA-13 was a de facto Open Seat in 2002

[Keystone Phil]

I meant a litte more precisely.   Like I said before I am really interested in what other people think about the mirco politics of this race.

And in general I agree Rendell had no coattails but I think it would be hard to say that 2002 was not an unusual year.  The president and the republican party recieved an high level of support in the aftermath of 9/11.    I don't think the same logic can possiblly be applied in this cycle unless something catetrosphic occurs in the coming weeks.

I don't know how specific you want me to get. I believe that if Brown was able to get 47% in a district that Rendell won by a big margin, than that's pretty impressive. Also, this year is different. Sure the President isn't very popular here but neither is Street. If Schwartz brings up Bush, Brown could bring up Street. Another thing is Schwartz can not portray herself to be a moderate like Hoeffel did. Schwartz is cleary very liberal and seems to be shying away from the issues that are most important to voters here (Section 8 reform, med. mal.).

[Keystone Phil]

Bear in mind that the NE Philly part of PA-13 was a de facto Open Seat in 2002

Hoeffel had much big name ID though. It's different this time. You go around this district and ask people if they know Melissa Brown and a good amount have heard of her. Ask if they have heard about Allyson Schwartz and not as many people will know of her.

[Demoteen04]

I was recently canvassing in parts of PA 13 and people in that district were aware of how close of a race it will be in November and they just kept praising Allyson Schwartz there were a few Brown supporters but on a ratio I think out of every ten people 9 were schwartz supporters and knew about her. Some people didn't even know the republican candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

I was recently canvassing in parts of PA 13 and people in that district were aware of how close of a race it will be in November and they just kept praising Allyson Schwartz there were a few Brown supporters but on a ratio I think out of every ten people 9 were schwartz supporters and knew about her. Some people didn't even know the republican candidate.

That is totally untrue. I don't even think Handzus would believe some of the stuff you just posted. 90% of the people you talked to were Schwartz supporters? Unless you were in Schwartz's state senate district, I don't believe what you said for a second.

[Demoteen04]

My statistics may have been off I mean out of about 30 people I talked to in the 58th Ward 20 of them knew Allyson Schwartz and didn't know the name of the republican challenger and may I add this was around August 14th considering I left for vacation the 16th and that is where I am currently at. I do not have time to go back and forth with you tonight sorry phil.

[Keystone Phil]

I do not have time to go back and forth with you tonight sorry phil.

Well we have the whole rest of the campaign to argue back and forth. After Labor Day, the campaign fun begins!

[jdscott]

Actually in 2002 I bet if you look at old polls for the NE neither Brown or Hoeffel had good name ID.

Most voters thought Borski was their congressman.

I do agree Hoeffel had the name ID advantage in Montco.

I think the flaw in your argument is that Brown will be going to Washington and therefore I logical link can be drawn to Bush (or Lott etc).   (I am not saying Brown is the same I am just saying the argument can be made to voters)

On the other hand Street is a local pol not a national figure.   It will be harder to try and link Allyson with Street because she is running for Congress not City Council.   Now if the Brown campaign wants to link her to Rendell and the Harrisburg dems (e.g. on the Med Mal issue) that is sensible.  Or to Kerry and "crazy" Mass. liberals on issues like gay marriage or abortion.

As I said before Brown was able to localize the 2002 race by making it about section 8.   If she hits Allyson on Med Mal even the most ardent hater will not see this as a Philadelphia/John Street issue (but of course ardent haters are probably not voting for Allyson to begin with).

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Actually in 2002 I bet if you look at old polls for the NE neither Brown or Hoeffel had good name ID.

Most voters thought Borski was their congressman.

I do agree Hoeffel had the name ID advantage in Montco.

I think the flaw in your argument is that Brown will be going to Washington and therefore I logical link can be drawn to Bush (or Lott etc).   (I am not saying Brown is the same I am just saying the argument can be made to voters)

On the other hand Street is a local pol not a national figure.   It will be harder to try and link Allyson with Street because she is running for Congress not City Council.   Now if the Brown campaign wants to link her to Rendell and the Harrisburg dems (e.g. on the Med Mal issue) that is sensible.  Or to Kerry and "crazy" Mass. liberals on issues like gay marriage or abortion.

As I said before Brown was able to localize the 2002 race by making it about section 8.   If she hits Allyson on Med Mal even the most ardent hater will not see this as a Philadelphia/John Street issue (but of course ardent haters are probably not voting for Allyson to begin with).

Hey JD.  Welcome to the forum.  I'm glad some people in here have some sense.  I've been trying to tell this kid all along that Street and Section 8 are local issues, not national ones.  I voted Katz for mayor and I plan on the ticket in my signature come Fall.  Funny you mentioned Borski.  There are some people here that still think he's our Congressman.  Unfortunately I must say there are people who are ignorant enough to tie Street with the national Democratic party for he is FAR off the issue.  I think Allyson Schwartz will prevail, but Joe Torsella should have won the primary and would have got conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans better than Schwartz.  Section 8 is still an issue, but as I have been saying to our young friend, the PHA has mroe authority on how its run.  I also regret this, and yes KP you will laugh, I have the arduous task of having to convince even my own relatives of Brown's false nasty tactics.        

[Keystone Phil]

Actually in 2002 I bet if you look at old polls for the NE neither Brown or Hoeffel had good name ID.

Most voters thought Borski was their congressman.

I do agree Hoeffel had the name ID advantage in Montco.

I think the flaw in your argument is that Brown will be going to Washington and therefore I logical link can be drawn to Bush (or Lott etc).   (I am not saying Brown is the same I am just saying the argument can be made to voters)

On the other hand Street is a local pol not a national figure.   It will be harder to try and link Allyson with Street because she is running for Congress not City Council.   Now if the Brown campaign wants to link her to Rendell and the Harrisburg dems (e.g. on the Med Mal issue) that is sensible.  Or to Kerry and "crazy" Mass. liberals on issues like gay marriage or abortion.

As I said before Brown was able to localize the 2002 race by making it about section 8.   If she hits Allyson on Med Mal even the most ardent hater will not see this as a Philadelphia/John Street issue (but of course ardent haters are probably not voting for Allyson to begin with).

Hey JD.  Welcome to the forum.  I'm glad some people in here have some sense.  I've been trying to tell this kid all along that Street and Section 8 are local issues, not national ones.  I voted Katz for mayor and I plan on the ticket in my signature come Fall.  Funny you mentioned Borski.  There are some people here that still think he's our Congressman.  Unfortunately I must say there are people who are ignorant enough to tie Street with the national Democratic party for he is FAR off the issue.  I think Allyson Schwartz will prevail, but Joe Torsella should have won the primary and would have got conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans better than Schwartz.  Section 8 is still an issue, but as I have been saying to our young friend, the PHA has mroe authority on how its run.  I also regret this, and yes KP you will laugh, I have the arduous task of having to convince even my own relatives of Brown's false nasty tactics.        

First off, do me a favor and don't call me kid. Your 8 years older than me and act less mature at times. Second of all, what's your point that Section 8 is a local issue? You mean to tell me Dem candidates for Congress don't focus on local issues? And tell me another thing, if Section 8 is so local, how did Hoeffel get something done about it? That's all you ever talk about when it comes to this issue. I guess Hoeffel is the only one that can handle the problem? And talk about ignorance (people tying Street to the National Dems) how come you can tie Brown to Bush but Dems can't be tied to Street?  And lastly, Brown hasn't put out any "false, nasty" tactics. All the Philly Dems say is she is negative and a racist and you know what? That's not going to work this time. The voters see right through that.

(Oh and I don't know how people can think Borski still is or ever was our Congressman. He didn't do much.)

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Melissa Brown will be doing more for doctors and the Club for Growth folks than us and I know it.  She will be doing stuff in Congress, just not for the Northeast.

[Keystone Phil]

Melissa Brown will be doing more for doctors and the Club for Growth folks than us and I know it.  She will be doing stuff in Congress, just not for the Northeast.

Oh give me a break. Fighting to keep our doctors here as opposed to fleeing the state isn't fighting for us? Fighting to reform a broken Section 8 program isn't fighting for us? She'll do stuff in Congress and that stuff with help the Northeast. The problem is you don't want to admit it. When it comes down to the two candidates, Brown has addressed the major concerns of voters here in the NE more than Schwartz has. That's why Torsella voters will strongly consider (and some will actually vote) Melissa Brown.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Melissa Brown will be doing more for doctors and the Club for Growth folks than us and I know it.  She will be doing stuff in Congress, just not for the Northeast.

Oh give me a break. Fighting to keep our doctors here as opposed to fleeing the state isn't fighting for us? Fighting to reform a broken Section 8 program isn't fighting for us? She'll do stuff in Congress and that stuff with help the Northeast. The problem is you don't want to admit it. When it comes down to the two candidates, Brown has addressed the major concerns of voters here in the NE more than Schwartz has. That's why Torsella voters will strongly consider (and some will actually vote) Melissa Brown.

Addressing and doing are two different thing.  Schwartz has a history of DOING.  Brown has a history of addressing.  IMO, she's a snake and has personal reasons for wanting to go to Congress and she will fail yet again!  Torsella voters???  Yeah I was one and I am voting for Schwartz!  I still made it out for the primary despite the fact I had a huge final that day mainly because I thought he was a moderate and had the better chance of keeping the distirct Democratic.  He also assured me he was FAR from the Joe Lieberman wing of the party.  Why do you think people actually went out and voted for him?  Hmm, maybe it was because people are disenchanted with the Bush Administration and his associates.  Melissa Brown is eager to be a proud associate in Congress.  Oh and not to being this up again, Torsella is backing Schwartz.  You got a HUGE problem in the Montgomery Co. portion of the district.  That was her Republican primary challenger Ellen Bard whom Melissa Brown ran a nasty campaign against her out there.  It's a problem because Bard was a popular, entrenched State Rep out there and IS NOT backing Melissa Brown.    

[Keystone Phil]

Torsella voters???  Yeah I was one and I am voting for Schwartz!

 

Ok well I hate to break this to you, Handzus, but you aren't the voice of the Torsella voters. Many will be considering her and you're going to see a lot of your fellow Torsella voters split their ballots on November 2nd.

I still made it out for the primary despite the fact I had a huge final that day mainly because I thought he was a moderate and had the better chance of keeping the distirct Democratic.  He also assured me he was FAR from the Joe Lieberman wing of the party.

Well he's no Lieberman, I can agree with that. But he's no Hoeffel either.

Melissa Brown is eager to be a proud associate in Congress.

If you believe Brown will be some puppet or whatever, you are mistaken. You're just an angry (and rather sad since you refer to the woman as a "snake") person. I think you're finally realizing Brown will be elected and you're very disappointed with that.

You got a HUGE problem in the Montgomery Co. portion of the district.  That was her Republican primary challenger Ellen Bard whom Melissa Brown ran a nasty campaign against her out there.

How did Brown run a nasty campaign? I'm tired of your ridiculous accusations that you can't back up so maybe this time you can actually provide me with something she did that was "negative."

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

All I have to say is wait and see where her priorities are if God forbid she does get elected.  If she and Bush get elected, 2006 is going to be a sour year for you guys.  Santorum will be out handily, Fitzpatrick (PA-8) if elected gone, Brown (PA-13) if elected gone, Gerlach (PA-6) if re-elected gone, Weldon(PA-7) gone, Dent (PA-15) if elected gone, Saxton(NJ-3) gone! The Philadelphia metro area will be desolate for the GOP (barring any ballot suttfing).  Ok, as consolation you'll hold PA-16, NJ-2, NJ-4, and DE-AL.