America: 2000-2016

[Yates]

I'm guessing America ceases to exist after 2016 in this scenario?

Oh, no, I merely do not wish to write a story based solely on fiction.

[Colin]

I'm guessing America ceases to exist after 2016 in this scenario?

Oh, no, I merely do not wish to write a story based solely on fiction.

Those are the most fun to write though.

[Yates]

I'm guessing America ceases to exist after 2016 in this scenario?

Oh, no, I merely do not wish to write a story based solely on fiction.

Those are the most fun to write though.

Maybe I'll give it a try.

[Gabu]

John Kerry, who placed last out of the major candidates, announces that, if he does not come in third place or higher in the New Hampshire Primary, he will leave the race.

New Hampshire Primary
Democratic Results
[X] Roy Barnes: 44.36%
Tom Daschle: 43.25%
John Kerry: 10.63%
Other: 1.76%

....

John Kerry leaves the race, and endorses Barnes.

OMG FLIP-FLOPPER HE CAME IN THIRD BUT LEFT ANYWAY

[Yates]

Haha.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Hey Yates...Very nice...I can see some similarities with the 1992 election minus a Perot-like candidate (Perhaps a Ron Paul in 2004?).

I'm really enjoying your story. We haven't had a good fiction timeline in quite a while (Winfield - where are you? ) and you're doing a great job!  

I'm thinking of doing my own timeline again...of course not to challenge you!

[Yates]

Let's have some fun.
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This preview is acceptable for all audiences.

“THIS IS GREAT.” – ANDREW BERGER

“SO FAR, SO GOOD.” – MIKE NASO

“OOOHHH, IT’S LOOKING GOOD.” – ANDREWCT

After the grueling primary process. . .

. . .comes the general election.

On the political battlefield, there are no civilians.

On the political battlefield, there is no mercy.

On the political battlefield, there is no surrender.

THE REPUBLICAN



“YOU WANT FOUR MORE YEARS, YOU’RE GONNA GET IT!”

THE DEMOCRAT



“The future of America is at stake.  Which path do you want?”

A PATH TO BE DETERMINED. . .

A CHOICE TO BE MADE. . .

AND AN OCTOBER SURPRISE THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING.

America: 2000-2016
Election 2004: Part III

Coming soon to a What-if forum near you.

[Big DaddyTX]

Wheeee!!! Looking good so far.

[George W. Hobbes]

Viva Bush! Viva Bush! Viva Bush!

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III will be finished with tonight, and may require more than one post.  After the completion of Part III, Election Night 2004 will begin, and I am considering doing it "real time."

[Colin]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor Arnold Vosloo to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

[Yates]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

Haha.

What I mean is this:

Election coverage starts at 7:00 P.M. with the first two states being called.  In real time, I would call Indiana and Kentucky at 7, the other states at their respective times, basically replicating actual election night coverage.

[Gabu]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

Haha.

What I mean is this:

Election coverage starts at 7:00 P.M. with the first two states being called.  In real time, I would call Indiana and Kentucky at 7, the other states at their respective times, basically replicating actual election night coverage.

If you want to make it really real time, you could simulate really close states by having it too close to call when polls close and then have the states get called later.

[Yates]

I am considering doing it "real time."

24 style, maybe some explosions see Roy Barnes torturing some people, you could even get Polish actor to play an Arab terrorist like he always does.

What do you mean by "real time" though?

Haha.

What I mean is this:

Election coverage starts at 7:00 P.M. with the first two states being called.  In real time, I would call Indiana and Kentucky at 7, the other states at their respective times, basically replicating actual election night coverage.

If you want to make it really real time, you could simulate really close states by having it too close to call when polls close and then have the states get called later.

Yes, I was planning to do that.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III will be posted tonight, before 11.  Tomorrow, Election Night will probably be done real time.

[Yates]

Election 2004: Part III

Both the Republican and Democratic conventions are viewed as successful.  The Republican convention focused on national security, with constant references to September 11th.  The Democratic convention focused on the failures of the Bush Administration, as well as policies Governor Barnes would pursue as President.

September 10th
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 99
Bush Total: 153
Tossup: 23
Barnes Total: 362
Barnes Solid: 183

On September 13th, President Bush, in a press conference in the Rose Garden, announces that, after discussing the matter with military commanders, he will begin a full withdrawl from Iraq, to be completed by January 1st, 2006.  After this is announced, his approval rating climbs 15% overnight, and political analysts anticipate a shift in the polls.

Barnes responds strongly.  “The timing of this announcement is purely political,” he says.  “The President did not factor either the welfare of our brave troops or the security of our great country in the decision to make this withdrawl.  He’s behind in the polls, and he’s using desperate measures to get ahead.”

In early September, the Bush/Cheney campaign begins running ads across the nation depicting September 11th.  In the ad, Bush says, “Never forget those who died on September the 11th.  And never forget that the threat of another terrorist attack is here today.  If, God forbid, terrorists were to strike our nation again, I want to be the President that, once again, provides the strong leadership needed to bring our country through.”

The ad is decried by the Barnes/Clark campaign as being the epitome of scare tactics and as using the suffering of 9/11 for political gain.

In the first Presidential debate, focused on foreign policy, President Bush once again focuses on terrorism, while Governor Barnes sharply criticizes Bush’s handling of the Iraq conflict.  Snap polls after the debate find that Americans are split nearly evenly when asked who won the debate.  Political analysts attribute this to the fact that Barnes’ attacks on the Iraq War are no longer as effective after the President’s announcement of a full withdrawl within a year.

In the Vice Presidential debate, Lynne Cheney uses her skills as a former political debate show host and viciously attacks Barnes’ record as Governor of Georgia.  Because of this, Wes Clark finds himself having to spend most of his speaking time defending Barnes rather than attacking the Bush record.  Polls after the debate suggest that Lynne Cheney solidly won.

In the town hall Presidential debate, both Bush and Barnes appear likeable and conversational, and both effectively and earnestly answer the questions posed to them.  Polls show that Barnes came out of the debate as the perceived winner, however.

In the final Presidential debate, focusing on domestic issues, Roy Barnes clearly is effective in attacking the state of the economy under President Bush.  Barnes also takes the time to unveil some of his detailed policies for expanding health care coverage and reforming the education system.  Barnes is regarded by a vast majority as the clear winner of this debate.

October 10th
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 138
Bush Total: 176
Tossup: 79
Barnes Total: 283
Barnes Solid: 183

However, everything is about to change with, perhaps, the most unwelcome October surprise in history.

(continued below)

[Yates]

Notice: The events described below do not represent the desires nor the opinions of the author.

THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

October 23rd, 2004
Bloomington, Minnesota



At 11:13 A.M., when the mall was filled with shoppers, an unknown terrorist, disguised as a janitor, left one ton of explosives in the mall’s hub.  At 11:16 A.M., the explosives detonated.  A huge fireball swept up the mall’s main staircase, sending it crashing to the ground.  The sounds of screaming and shattering glass echoed across the entire mall as the fire bell rang, sending alarmed shoppers frantically running outside.  Police and fire rescue personnel were on the scene within minutes.

By late afternoon, the death toll was reported to be 231, mostly women and children, and the number was expected to rise.  That evening, all major television and radio networks dedicated their programming to mourning.

All campaign activities were suspended.  Both candidates flew at once to Bloomington to mourn on the site.  That night, at 10:30 P.M., President Bush gave a speech near the destroyed part of the mall.  In the speech, the President urged the nation to mourn with the families of those who were killed.  He also initiated a call for revenge.  “Yes, we must mourn,” said Bush.  “But we must also be more determined than ever before to rise up and show our true strength.”

Political polling the following day showed an overwhelming surge in the President’s approval rating.  In a written statement, Governor Barnes announced that he will not campaign for one week out of respect for those who are in the mourning process.  In the statement, he asked President Bush to do the same.

The Bush/Cheney campaign, two days after the tragedy, began running television spots in several states in which Bush was seen giving his speech at the Mall of America.  State polls showed Bush surging.  Political analyst James Carville stated, “President Bush’s message has been all about terrorism.  I think this attack proves that his message is an important one, and I think it’ll carry him to victory.”

One week later, Roy Barnes and Wes Clark hit the campaign trail.  In a widely publicized speech, Barnes said, “Yes, we mourn.  Yes, we need to keep ourselves safe.  From the moment I’m sworn into office, I will do whatever it takes to find those responsible for this and have them killed.  I will not hesitate to wait for world approval.  I will use overwhelming force against nations which harbor these terrorists, and I will not stop until I know that you, the American people, are safe.”

With days until the election, Bush has closed the gap.  On the day before the election, the race is up in the air.

November 1st, 2004
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 163
Bush Total: 217
Tossup: 93
Barnes Total: 228
Barnes Solid: 183

“This election is up in the air.” – James Carville

“At this point, it’s anyone’s guess.” – Joe Trippi

“Tomorrow, the American people will vote for strength in a dangerous world.” – George W. Bush

“It’s time to have an end to the fear and begin a new era of hope.” – Roy Barnes

ELECTION NIGHT 2004
TOMORROW

[Gabu]

With days until the election, Bush has closed the gap.  On the day before the election, the race is up in the air.

November 1st, 2004
Rasmussen Reports
Nationwide Poll

Bush Solid: 163
Bush Total: 217
Tossup: 93
Barnes Total: 228
Barnes Solid: 183

This doesn't really seem that realistic.  After September 11, Bush's approval ratings (in the real world) rocketed up to above 90%.  I think that the incumbent president would win in a walk if there really was a terrorist attack literally a week before election day.

[Yates]

I see your point.  Before 9/11, the President's approval rating was in the 40%-50% range, and rose roughly 40% after 9/11.  In this scenario, the President's approval rating is roughly 30%.  I do not believe that the approval rating would take such a large jump if a terrorist attack had happened before.

[Yates]

EXIT POLLS

Which issue was most important to you when voting today?
Terrorism: 36%
Iraq: 31%
Economy: 18%
Social Issues: 10%
Other: 5%

How recently did you decide which candidate to vote for?
Over one month ago: 35%
Over one week ago: 29%
Within the past week: 24%
In the voting booth: 12%

What is your education level?
Some high school: 8%
High School/G.E.D.: 19%
Some college: 13%
College degree: 35%
Master's degree: 11%
Doctorate: 6%
Professional degree: 9%

[Soaring Eagle]

I can hardly wait. Keep up the great work!

[Reaganfan]

Keep it up!

[Yates]

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

Good evening and welcome to MSNBC’s live coverage of Election Night 2004.  I’m your host, Chris Matthews.  Our panel will be joining us shortly.

This election season has been one of the most unpredictable in history.  Out of nowhere, Governor Roy Barnes came from behind to win the Iowa Caucuses and the Democratic nomination.  For his running mate, he chose the guy who challenged an incumbent President in the Republican primaries.  The race seemed like a lock until a few weeks ago when terrorists attack the Mall of America in Minnesota.  We expect this election night to be equally as unpredictable. 

Here’s how out schedule is looking for tonight:

At 7:00, the polls in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont close.  Out of those, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Virginia could go either way.

At 7:30, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia’s polls close.  All three of those seem up for grabs tonight.

At 8:00, Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas.  Out of those, we’ll be watching Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania very closely.

At 8:30, polls in Arkansas, another close state, close.

At 9:00, polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming close.  We’ll be watching Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin all very closely.

At 10:00, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, and Utah close.  Iowa and Nevada are expected to be pretty close.

At 11:00, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington ring in.  Oregon looks like it’ll be pretty close.

And at midnight, Alaska polls close.

We’re in for a long night.  After this break, we’ll here from our panel.  Stay with us.

Note: Election night will be simulated in real time.

[Soaring Eagle]

How are the Senate races shaping up at this point?

[Yates]

How are the Senate races shaping up at this point?

I was actually considering whether or not I should include this in my election night coverage.  I will say that the Democrats are faring better than they did in the real 2004 election.  I will make an official post on this after the 2004 Election.