Surprise VP selection?

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone think Kerry will pick a surprise candidate as his running mate? I do. I just have this feeling that Edwards won't be selected. So what does everyone think? Will Kerry pick a surprise candidate or will he stick with someone that is expected to be selected (i.e. Edwards or Gephardt)?

[elcorazon]

I think the opportunity to knock off Bush is there, and Kerry will not want to do anything to derail his chances.  I doubt he will do anything major.  So no, I don't think it'll be a big surprise.  If it's not one of the primary names that get mentioned, it'll still be a senator, governor or very prominent politician.  He's not going to go for a Quayle/Ferraro/Cheney type.  It could be Gephardt (gag) or Edwards or Richardson or Vilsack or someone else prominent (not Hillary, maybe Biden).

[© tweed]

I think it will be Gephardt.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the opportunity to knock off Bush is there, and Kerry will not want to do anything to derail his chances.  I doubt he will do anything major.  So no, I don't think it'll be a big surprise.  If it's not one of the primary names that get mentioned, it'll still be a senator, governor or very prominent politician.  He's not going to go for a Quayle/Ferraro/Cheney type.  It could be Gephardt (gag) or Edwards or Richardson or Vilsack or someone else prominent (not Hillary, maybe Biden).

When I say surprise I don't mean some minor candidate though that could happen. When I say surprise I mean anyone besides Edwards or Gephardt since most believe the VP race is between those two. I guess Vilsack wouldn't be a total surprise but so many seem to think he has no chance of being selected over someone like Edwards.

[elcorazon]

hey boss, do you really think EVERY state will go the same way as 2000.  That'd be REALLY weird.

trivia (I don't know the answer):  What 2 consecutive elections had the lowest number of states change allegiances from one party to the other?

extra bonus:  Are there any nonconsecutive elections which were similar in this respect.

[elcorazon]

I think the opportunity to knock off Bush is there, and Kerry will not want to do anything to derail his chances.  I doubt he will do anything major.  So no, I don't think it'll be a big surprise.  If it's not one of the primary names that get mentioned, it'll still be a senator, governor or very prominent politician.  He's not going to go for a Quayle/Ferraro/Cheney type.  It could be Gephardt (gag) or Edwards or Richardson or Vilsack or someone else prominent (not Hillary, maybe Biden).

When I say surprise I don't mean some minor candidate though that could happen. When I say surprise I mean anyone besides Edwards or Gephardt since most believe the VP race is between those two. I guess Vilsack wouldn't be a total surprise but so many seem to think he has no chance of being selected over someone like Edwards.

OH.  Never mind.

[© tweed]

hey boss, do you really think EVERY state will go the same way as 2000.  That'd be REALLY weird.

Well, that's my projection now.  But PA and NH are absolutely impossible to call right now, along with NM and OR.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

hey boss, do you really think EVERY state will go the same way as 2000.  That'd be REALLY weird.

trivia (I don't know the answer):  What 2 consecutive elections had the lowest number of states change allegiances from one party to the other?

extra bonus:  Are there any nonconsecutive elections which were similar in this respect.

Among consecutive elections, I think the most similar were 1884 and 1888, with only Indiana and NY switching to the GOP.  And 1888 was only 3 states different from 1880.  In the 20th century, the 2 closest consecutive I think were 1992 and 1996, with 4 switches.

Among non-consecutive elections, 1972 was only two states different than 1984, but that is an obvious one.

Most amusing perhaps are comparing 1956 to 1964 in reverse, and even 2000 to 1896 in reverse!

[Rococo4]

I think he is going Gephardt, Richardson, Rendell, or Vilsack, outside chance of HRC.  No shot of Edwards.  In the end, I dont think it really matters.

No one is going to vote in this particualr election based on VP. People usually dont, and this election even less will.

[zachman]

I think so. He speaks so much about not having a VP list, and yet he has leaked out some names. I bet he got there approval for it first to test out the reactions.

[Akno21]

I think so. He speaks so much about not having a VP list, and yet he has leaked out some names. I bet he got there approval for it first to test out the reactions.

True. He does have a short list, it's just not announced.
John Edwards
Dick Gephardt
Wesley Clark
Tom Vilsack
Bill Richardson

[Ben.]

If you want a "surprise pick" go for Blanche Lincoln or Mark Warner both would be excellent choice as running mates IMHO...

[Keystone Phil]

If you want a "surprise pick" go for Blanche Lincoln or Mark Warner both would be excellent choice as running mates IMHO...

In my opinion, as I've stated before, ANYONE BUT EDWARDS AND GEPHARDT I consider a surprise since all the attention is on them. Lincoln and Warner would be REALLY surprising picks. Especially Lincoln.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I would be surprised if Richardson is on the shortlist at this point.  He has repeatedly denied interest (more forcefully than most), and there hasn't been much talk about him recently.  Of course, that could be your surprise.

[AuH2O]

Mark Warner would not be a good pick. Too conservative for the Democratic base and he wouldn't deliver VA...

[12th Doctor]

Mark Warner would not be a good pick. Too conservative for the Democratic base and he wouldn't deliver VA...

Yeah, but he might deliver Maryland.  

[ATFFL]

I would be surprised if Richardson is on the shortlist at this point.  He has repeatedly denied interest (more forcefully than most), and there hasn't been much talk about him recently.  Of course, that could be your surprise.

I think he was never on the list, long or short.  He just wants people to pay attention to him for his 2008 run if Kerry loses.

Kerry will want someone who can help him pick up a state, and Richardson would lock up NM, but not help in the neighboring states much.

[MHS2002]

I'm going to pull a StatesRights and throw Clinton out there. I'm not a party to the bet though

[WalterMitty]

max cleland is a wild card.

[AuH2O]

Cleland wouldn't deliver GA... plus Kerry likes himself enough that he doesn't need any more military cred on the ticket...

[Citizen James]

My guess is that it'll be someone on the short list for political wonks like us (such as Vilsack or Rendell), but not one of the high profle possibilities (Gephart, Edwards, or Clark).

[© tweed]

max cleland is a wild card.

There aren't any wild cards anymore.  It will be Gephardt, Vilsack, or Edwards.

[Akno21]

I would be surprised if Richardson is on the shortlist at this point.  He has repeatedly denied interest (more forcefully than most), and there hasn't been much talk about him recently.  Of course, that could be your surprise.

Yea, he is definitly not a front-runner, mostly because of his lack of interest, not lousy resume.

[HoopsCubs]

Does anyone think Kerry will pick a surprise candidate as his running mate? I do. I just have this feeling that Edwards won't be selected. So what does everyone think? Will Kerry pick a surprise candidate or will he stick with someone that is expected to be selected (i.e. Edwards or Gephardt)?

There has been a speculative buzz around Illinois the last three days that Kerry will pick Senator Dick Durbin to be his running mate.  That would be quite a surprise, wouldn't it?

I still think it's going to be one of the Florida senators.

 

[StevenNick]

I think Kerry is going with Vilsack.