Brazil thread 2023-

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha poll on the approval of Lula's government:

Good/great - 37% (-1)
Regular - 33% (+3)
Bad/awful - 27% (-2)
Don't know/didn't answer - 3% (-)

The variations in the good/great and the bad/awful answers were both inside the margin of error.

[Red Velvet]

To make a resume of economic situation and projections in these first 6 months of Lula:

- The international “market” became more optimistic regarding Brazil, which contrasted with the domestic “market” becoming more pessimistic with Lula’s election.

- This inevitably set up a scenario where one of the two would be forced to eat crow and be exposed as a farse and from the very beginning that was obviously going to be the domestic market which worked against the country in the last decade.

- Lula confrontation with the Central Bank president about the interest rate, with Lula harshly opposing the high 13,75% interest rate and the Central Bank refusing to lower it down even if inflation is already controlled and projected to finish at a much lower level, around 5%.

- Bolsonarists with end of world hopes, buying dollars expecting (or hoping) it will gain more value under Lula because he will luckily turn the country into Venezuela and prive them right lmao

What’s happening now:

- Domestic market is finally coming into terms with a more positive economic projection on all levels, even if they’re still somewhat pessimistic compared to actual reality.

- Brazil Central Bank projects a GDP 2023 growth of 2,14% now (up from around 1% early in the year). It will still could end even higher though, with more optimistic and independent analysts saying stuff that is closer to 3% than to 2%. Government is naturally cautious though, in order to let the good news come only when they’re a done deal, projecting only a 1,9% growth.

- Dollar collapsed from R$ 5,29 in January 1st to R$ 4,79 as of right now and still has a downwards trend motivated by global (Brazil-involved somewhat) and domestic developments. Central Bank has also reduced their projections from early in the year to R$ 5,00 but they still look not very realistic or in line with what we’re seeing. Goldman Sachs already projects the dollar at R$ 4,40 at the end of the year.

- Inflation is controlled (and low, at least compared to global standards) and Central Bank is forced to accept the idea if lowering down interest rate in this year. Their projection is still high as hell though, with a forecast of 12,25% (from 13,75%) in the end of the year - which shows that even if the pessimistic vibe shifted to a more optimistic one, domestic markets are still more conservative.

[Red Velvet]

New Quaest Poll came out!

Lula’s government approval:
Approve 56% (+5)
Disapprove 40% (-2)
Don’t Know 4% (-2)

Government Approval between…

Lula 2022 voters:
Approve 90% (+2)
Disapprove 7% (-)
Don’t Know 3% (-3)

Bolsonaro 2022 voters:
Disapprove 76% (-5)
Approve 22% (+8)
Don’t Know 3% (-2)

Others/Null 2022 voters:
Approve 54% (+4)
Disapprove 36% (-1)
Don’t Know 10% (-3)

Evaluation of Lula’s Government (all):
Great / Good 37% (+1)
Regular 32% (+3)
Bad / Awful 27% (-2)
Don’t Know 4% (-2)

Comparing the approval rating with evaluation one, of the 32% regular: 19% approve and 13% disapprove the government. Which is around 60% of regular having a more positive opinion and 40% a more negative one.

I say this because I remember during Dilma 2nd term the mainstream media using regular as a “non-approval” measure when it’s really just a more moderate approval or disapproval, when people are meh/okay with the government.

[Pivaru]

Lula's pick for the open supreme court seat, hsi lawyer Cristiano Zanin, just participated in a 7h30min hearing with the senate's Commission of the Constitution, Justice and Citizenship. It was a very milquetoast hearing, Zanin tried appealing to the left wing senators by saying he wouldn't excuse himself of judging cases involving Lula and appealed to the right by saying he'd respect freedom of speech and that abortion is an issue that should be solved by the legislature. The only real moment of tension was a confrontation between Zanin and Sergio Moro. His name was approved by the commision, 21 votes in favor and 5 against. Now, there'll be a full senate vote, if he gets more than half of them (that is, 41 or more), he's officially the new supreme court minister, the government is expecting something like 60 voters in favor or so, we should have the results later today.

Ultimately, this quick and clean approval is unsurprising, the senate hearing and vote has always just been one giant rubber stamp when it comes to appointing people for the supreme court.

Edit: Zanin has been approved, 58-18

[Red Velvet]

André Mendonça, Bolsonaro’s 2nd nominee, had less votes to pass and was still approved with six votes more than necessary. Zanin approval by CCJ with 21 vs 5 shouldn’t be any surprise. He will still go to the full senate vote but expectations are an easier approval than Mendonça, ranging between 55 to 60 votes.

It’s no surprise especially because he’s a Garantista instead of a Punitivista, someone who believes in the right of the accused to fully exhaust it’s defense rights. That is very popular with politicians of all ideologies. That he stood against Car-Wash must be a plus, Lula’s lawyer or not.

Zanin strikes me as boring pick tbh, you can’t really tell anything about him other than that he seems very standard and serious and I guess this works in his favor as well. He didn’t say anything out of the general consensus and we cannot know if it’s because he’s really standard and boring or if it’s just trying to appease the most senate voters as possible. Only his future decisions will tell. Everything sounds more like speculation at this point.

What people know about him right now is only what they can tell from his book on Lawfare, which backs his Garantista profile and the comment that he made that I feel characterizes his role in Lula’s defense when media was putting public opinion against him, the phrase about not letting public opinion influence in Supreme Court decisions.

[Red Velvet]

Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s lawyer during Car-Wash, has now been approved in the senate with a 58 vs 18 vote. To be approved he needed a simple majority of the senate that is constituted by 81 senators, so ministers need at least 41 votes to be approved.

Zanin replaces Ricardo Lewandowski, who was nominated by Lula as well, in the 00s.

He can be a Supreme Court minister until 2051, when he reaches the compulsory retirement age of 75. Brazilian Supreme Court has 11 ministers, an odd number in order to favor decisions without a tie.

Supreme Court Ministers approval in the senate:

- Cristiano Zanin (nominated by Lula): 58 votes in favor vs 18 against

- André Mendonça (Bolsonaro): 47 in favor vs 32 against

- Kassio Nunes Marques (Bolsonaro): 57 in favor vs 10 against

- Alexandre de Moraes (Michel Temer): 55 in favor vs 13 against

- Edson Fachin (Dilma Rousseff): 52 in favor vs 27 against

- Luís Roberto Barroso (Dilma Rousseff): 59 in favor vs 6 against

- Rosa Weber (Dilma Rousseff): 57 in favor vs 14 against

- Luis Fux (Dilma Rousseff): 68 in favor vs 2 against

- Dias Toffoli (Lula): 58 in favor vs 9 against

- Carmen Lúcia (Lula): 55 in favor vs 1 against

- Gilmar Mendes (Fernando Henrique Cardoso): 57 in favor vs 15 against

The closest we ever had to NOT have a Supreme Court nominee from the president approved was with André Mendonça but he still received 6 votes more than the necessary.

[Red Velvet]

Largest Immigrant groups in Brazil since 1870:

Fun to see the changes in more recent years.

[Red Velvet]

IBGE’s Socieconomical Development Index for 2017-2018 (with changes in relation to 2008-2009) per state:

1. Distrito Federal - 6,923 (+ 0,954)
2. São Paulo - 6,811 (+ 0,636)
3. Santa Catarina - 6,781 (+ 0,658)
4. Rio Grande do Sul - 6,617 (+ 0,553)
5. Paraná - 6,607 (+ 0,658)
6. Rio de Janeiro - 6,336 (+ 0,339)
7. Espírito Santo - 6,324 (+ 0,679)
8. Minas Gerais - 6,299 (+ 0,638)
9. Mato Grosso do Sul - 6,253 (+ 0,656)
BRAZIL AVERAGE - 6,147 (+ 0,695)
10. Goiás - 6,139 (+ 0,720)
11. Mato Grosso - 6,108 (+ 0,791)
12. Roraima - 5,852 (+ 1,420)
13. Sergipe - 5,810 (+ 1,191)
14. Rondônia - 5,645 (+ 0,575)
15. Bahia - 5,622 (+ 1,013)
16. Rio Grande do Norte - 5,583 (+ 0,860)
17. Ceará - 5,554 (+ 0,890)
18. Pernambuco - 5,539 (+ 0,669)
19. Tocantins - 5,527 (+ 0,920)
20. Paraíba - 5,455 (+ 0,690)
21. Amapá - 5,416 (+ 0,596)
22. Piauí - 5,406 (+ 0,991)
23. Amazonas - 5,334 (+ 0,661)
24. Acre - 5,259 (+ 0,760)
25. Alagoas - 5,204 (+ 0,788)
26. Pará - 5,067 (+ 0,729)
27. Maranhão - 4,841 (+ 0,749)

I separated the names in color according to the region they belong (North; Northeast; Midwest; Southeast; South).

This is the map of the Index itself:



And this is the map of the growth variation between 2008 to 2018, showing which states grew the most in a decade:

[buritobr]

Today the results of the number of people and households of the 2022 Census were finally released, in a public event in Rio de Janeiro. The Census was scheduled to 2020 (every year with 0 in the end), but there was a 2 year delay due to the pandemic. Then, the interviews in every Brazilian household took more time than the expected: due to short budget, the wage of the Census workers was too low and it was hard to attract more personel, another problem was the high number of people who refused to answer to the Census. ~3% of the households had people who refused to answer, it was record in the history of the Census in Brazil. IBGE needed to do estimations due to these household where the answers were lacking. Fake news spread through social networks might be the cause of high refusal rate. The extremes of the Brazilian social piramid were the hardest ones to interview: favelas and upper class condominiums.
Despite the problems, it was possible to finish the Census, after the hard work of many people. We see that public organizations are working in Brazil when we observe that the first half of the Census was conducted under Bolsonaro's administration and the second half of the Census was conducted under Lula's administration. The change of the federal administration had almost no impact in the daily job of the IBGE

[buritobr]

According the Census, the population in Brazil in 2022 was 203M. It was 190M in 2010. There was a 0.52% yearly growth, the lowest growth since 1872, when the first Census took place.



Many big cities, like Rio de Janeiro and Salvador, had declining population from 2010 to 2022. The cities which had bigger population growth were the medium sized ones located in the Center-West.

[buritobr]

Here you can see the population of the biggest cities in 2010 and 2022

[Red Velvet]

Lmao we’re doomed. An emergent country with the growth rate of a rich country.

These numbers per state reflect the economic situation of each state in a way tbh, which stimulates internal migration.

For instance, Rio de Janeiro (RJ) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) are states that went through economic struggles during the last decade and in that top 20 of biggest cities you see that the cities from those states had a demographic decline - in parts most likely due to migration.

#2 Rio de Janeiro - RJ (-1,70%)
#11 Porto Alegre - RS (-5,40%)
#18 São Gonçalo - RJ (-10,30%)

Many capitals had this population decline, while the region that had overall the biggest growth rate was the Midwest - which indicate some people migrating from the big cities to the Midwest and mid-sized coties looking for opportunities in the Agrobusiness.

From the three Midwest cities in the top 20:

#3 Brasília - DF (+9,60%)
#10 Goiânia - GO (+10,40%)
#17 Campo Grande - MS (+14,10%)

[buritobr]

According to the results of the 2022 Census, the change in the number of representatives of each state for the 2026 election will be the following one. These changes will take place due to the changes of the share of the population of each state in the country's population.
AC 0
AL -1
AP 0
AM 2
BA -2
CE +1
DF 0
ES 0
GO +1
MA 0
MT +2
MS  0
MG +1
PA  +4
PB  -2
PR  0
PE  -1
PI -1
RJ -4
RN +1
RS -3
RO 0
RR 0
SC +4
SP 0
SE 0
TO 0

BA, PB, PI loosing seats is very bad for the left. SC, MT, GO gaining seats is very good for the right. I believe that the left will loose also due to the losses of RS and RJ because although these states don't vote left for president anymore, they still send a good quantity of left-wing representatives to Brasília. In few words: this demographic changes are good for the right. The pro-Bolsonaro states and municipalities were the ones which had the highest population growth, because the "agrobusiness" attracts migrants. 

[Pivaru]

Bolsonaro is extremely likely to become ineligible tomorrow. On the 22nd, the Superior Electoral Court started the trial against the former president, the first day was fairly uneventful with none of the justices voting and the session being adjourned until the 27th. On the second day, justice Benedito Gonçalves voted against Bolsonaro, but then the session was once again adjourned, this time until the 29th. Today, three more justices voted, Floriano de Azevedo Marques and André Tavares both voted to condemn Bolsonaro, while Raul Araújo, one of the more conservative figures in the court, voted to keep him eligible. Bolsonaro's allies were hoping that Araújo would suspend the trial for one month by asking for more time to analyze the case, but that didn't happen. A new session will happen tomorrow, 12:00 PM BRT.

Three justices still have to vote, Carmen Lúcia, Nunes Marques and Alexandre de Moraes, Bolsonaro needs all three of them to rule in his favor, which is just not happening. Marques is the only one of the three who may vote in favor of Bolsonaro and even then, he's the second person to vote tomorrow, which means that regardless of what he does, a majority of the court will probably already have decided to rule against the former president. If he does become ineligible, he'll only recover his political rights in 2030.

The ineligibility of Bolsonaro's 2022 running mate, Walter Braga Netto, is also being voted on in this trial, however, all justices so far voted in his favor, which means that there's already a majority for Netto to keep his political rights. PL has been trying to get Netto to run for mayor of Rio de Janeiro next year, I've heard that governor Claudio Castro has reached out to him. That said, the president of the party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has said that Bolsonaro will have the final say on who's the party's candidate next year.

[Red Velvet]

The vote is currently 3 vs 1 in favor of Bolsonaro being ineligible for 8 years.

3 ministers left to vote tomorrow. Only one of them needs to vote in favor of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility in order to reach a majority of 4.

One of those three that still need to vote is Alexandre de Moraes.

[Pivaru]

Bolsonaro has just been made ineligible, justice Carmen Lúcia voted against him. He can still appeal the decision, but even if he does, it's likely nothing will change.

[CumbrianLefty]

Such tragic and terrible news

[Red Velvet]

The vote will likely end in a 5-2 in favor of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Nunes Marques will likely be against and Alexandre de Moraes, the final vote, will be the 5th in favor.

Big hit for the global far-right. This shows it’s possible to hold them accountable. Bolsonaro is prohibited to run for political office until 2030.

This opens up the race for 2026 a lot, presenting a question: Will Bolsonarism as a movement dissipate or just transfer to a new figure that represents it? Scenes for the next chapters…

You see the name of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio mentioned a lot as the heir of Bolsonarism - he was Bolsonaro’s minister of infrastructure. However, he presents himself as a middle road between the right-wing hardliners and moderates instead of being full crazy like Bolsonaro himself.

Personally, I don’t think Tarcísio really represents what Bolsonarism is in its identity, he’s more someone who ran in the wave along. I associate Bolsonarist raw identity much more to names like Nikolas Ferreira; Daniel Silveira; Carla Zambelli; Bolsonaro’s Sons in general.

So like, if Bolsonaro’s votes really migrate to Tarcísio; Bolsonarism itself DIES in a way or transforms itself to be something weaker - which is a victory in it by itself. A Tarcísio left would still be something way more conservative than what we had during PSDB years, but less radical than what we saw during Bolsonaro ones.

[Pivaru]

For what it's worth, I can think of one upside of this whole situation for the right-wing/antipetista side. Had Bolsonaro kept is eligibility, I do think there's a very big chance he'd end up running again in 2026. Just this morning, before the court ruled against him, he said during an interview that he is the right's only option, that there are other fine names out there but they'd all lose, he's the only one capable of winning. The thing is that it genuinely seems like Bolsonaro keeps getting weaker by the day, every month there's some new scandal involving him or some of his close associates, it's been a true dumpster fire of a post-presidency and we're just halfway through the first year. Of course, the wacky true believers and staunch antipetistas are not going to abandon him, but more moderate voters might do so.

I've seen Bolsonaro being compared to Paulo Maluf in the past and I think it's an appropriate parallel. Back in the day, Maluf used to run for governor of São Paulo almost every election cycle, he'd also occasionally run for mayor. Maluf had enough political capital and steadfast supporters to almost always get to the second round, sometimes the following race would be close, sometimes it wouldn't, but in nearly every election the result would be the same, Maluf was too personally unpopular, so he lost. All of this is to say that I think Bolsonaro would be in a similar position in 2026, strong enough to derail the candidacy of any other, potentially more electable, right-wing politician, but too weak to win.

Of course, just because Bolsonaro is out, it doesn't mean the right is now favored to win 2026, we're still three years out and they'd have to play their cards right. It's pretty obvious that PL wants his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, to run for something. The party's leadership is pretty convinced she'd be a strong candidate, they think Michelle would attract women to vote for her and keep the evangelicals in line. I'm not sure if I see the hype though, her lack of any political experience, involvement in some of her husband's post-presidential scandals and bad relation with some of his sons may be problems. Jair is also not fond of the idea so there's that. Michelle has denied any intention of running for president in 2026, but that's easy to do when there's so much time left.

As Red Velvet mentioned, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas is often brought up as a potential candidate. The name of Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema also comes up a lot, just like Tarcísio, he walks the fine line between crackpot bolsonarista set and moderates. Fwiw, I think both of them could potentially be formidable opponents to Lula (or whoever he ends up supporting in case he doesn't run again). There are some other names which are mentioned less often like Senator Tereza Cristina of Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior and I guess to some extent, even Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite is part of this group, kinda. Any of these names would result in the death/transformation of bolsonarismo as mentioned by Red Velvet. All of the potential candidates have their own problems of course, Tarcísio's inner circle would rather have him run for reelection as governor, Zema is part of a small, basically irrelevant party, so on and so forth...

I will mention that it does seem like some kind of articulation exists between Tarcísio, Zema and Leite. Zema has already said that, while he's open to running, he thinks it is important for antipetistas to coalesce under one name, so he's also not opposed to supporting someone else. Tarcísio has said he and Zema are "totally aligned". Leite has openly said that he wants to ally himself to the other two governors in 2026. It'd be an interesting alliance if it really were to happen, combined, they govern almost 40% of the population, but you know, much like Michelle saying she'll not run, it's easy to agree to something like this now, I want to see if they'll keep their word when push comes to shove.

[Red Velvet]

It’s crazy how much “diversity” there is within the right tbh. Especially if you compare to foreign countries.

Between Bolsonaro; Tarcísio de Freitas; Romeu Zema and Eduardo Leite that practically covers the entire US political spectrum, kinda - excluding the Bernie Sanders in the fringe of the Dem party.

Bolsonaro you can associate to Trump and the far-right; Tarcísio would be an establishment republican who fell in line with Trump even if they’re not as crazy as them but still quite conservative; Eduardo Leite would be an establishment neoliberal democrat who uses ID politics to sell credentials as a “progressive”; etc.

The single thing that unites these people is their opposition to the left, nothing else lol. No wonder they self-destroyed after their union for 2018 victory, the only thing in common they have is wanting to defeat PT and some of their economic agenda too.

I believe Tarcísio is their best positioned chance indeed and not just for being the governor of the largest state. He’s also perceived as a middle ground that can satisfy these different sectors of the right.

Hardline Bolsonarists are extremely toxic for the well-educated elites and the mainstream media who otherwise, sympathize much more with the right but for the first time ever abstained or even shifted to Lula in 2022 based only on their Anti-Bolsonarism that comes with their pro-democracy values and general disdain for Bolsonarist extreme use of populist rhetoric.

At the same time, a return to a PSDB type like Eduardo Leite - general economic right-wing neoliberalism masked with a facade of progressivism - would never be accepted by a more radicalized segment of the right. I don’t doubt that in a scenario against the left most could 100% fall in line even for an open homosexual like Leite but the problem is that PSDB brand for these people is more one of centrism, so they wouldn’t recognize Leite as one of their own

The right was clearly very divided last year and you could see these cracks between the different segments, which still exist. They would need to find something in between and I believe Tarcísio fits this bill.

Tarcísio would be welcomed by the right-wing “elites” and media if he doesn’t go full crazy and abrasive like Bolsonaro was in the stuff that he said publicly. And he would be also likely welcomed by Bolsonarists for being a Bolsonaro minister during his term.

It’s hard balancing job though, I have to say. He kinda has to find a way of not being exactly like Bolsonaro while still riling up the Bolsonarist base. But pretty manageable if he builds correct alliances and strategy within the Bolsonarist hard base, convincing names to not run and support him instead. Including Bolsonaro himself.

IMO he just needs to ensure he is the only ~Bolsonarist~ option available, guaranteeing his Bolsonarist pedigree until 2026. Which isn’t hard at all, these people are already somewhat sympathetic towards him, he just needs to stay silent while from time to time expressing solidarity towards Bolsonaro and support for social conservative policies without sounding a radical or putting himself in the mainstream media attention spot too much.

Then on election year during campaign, after you secured you’re the most Bolsonarist-friendly option, you moderate your speech to attract the people in the middle and put the media in your side - like they’ve always simped for PSDB. The Bolsonarists will support you by default anyway (who else would they have?) and the “moderate” right-wingers will be desperate to find someone to rally for with chances against Lula as long as they don’t think you’re as crazy or evil like Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Atlas poll July 2023

Lula's administration
Approve 53%
Disapprove 46%



Atlas performed better than other pollsters during the 2022 election. The other ones overestimated Lula. Even this pollster which doesn't overestimate Lula is showing a net approval bigger than the 2022 runoff margin.

[Red Velvet]

More details from the same ATLAS poll…

Regarding the opinion of Brazilians on a bunch of stuff the government has done in this first semester:

POPULAR DECISIONS (Things government has done that bring more approval than disapproval) - over +10 positive net

- Removal of Illegal Miners from Indigenous and Protected Lands +68 net
78% approve
10% disapprove
12 Don’t Know

- Raise of the Minimum Wage above the levels of inflation variation +59 net
74% approve
15% disapprove
11% Don’t Know

- Social Program of debt renegotiation (“Desenrola”) for the indebted part of population +54 net
69% approve
14% disapprove
16% Don’t Know

- Raise of the salary range for tax exemption to R$5.000,00 or lower +41 net
63% approve
22% disapprove
15% Don’t Know

- Bringing back obligation of Visa requirements for citizens of USA; Canada; Australia and Japan in order for them to be able to enter the country +40 net
61% approve
21% disapprove
18% Don’t Know

- Adopting the Project for Taxes Reform currently being discussed in Congress +34 net
54% approve
20% disapprove
25% Don’t Know

- New Commercial Deals with China +28 net
57% approve
29% disapprove
14% Don’t Know

- Reform of the rules from “Bolsa Família” social program for low-income families, with raise of the values paid +28 net
57% approve
29% disapprove
14% Don’t Know

- Creation of the New National Program for Public Safety +28 net
54% approve
26% disapprove
20% Don’t Know

NEUTRAL DECISIONS (Things that are more polarized and that the government has done that either don’t have effect in approval or disapproval or at least only very marginal effect) - between +10 and -10 net

- Public Criticism of the Central Bank for maintaining the Interest Rate +2 net
47% approve
45% disapprove
8% Don’t Know

- Renegotiation of the terms for the privatization of Eletrobras (which was approved during the Bolsonaro government) -1 net
38% approve
39% disapprove
23% Don’t Know

- Adoption of a Tax Framework for balancing the Public spendings -2 net
36% approve
38% disapprove
26% Don’t Know

- Regulation of Social Media (“Fake News Project”) -2 net
45% approve
47% disapprove
8% Don’t Know

- Lula’s Participation in the latest Foro de São Paulo -4 net
41% approve
45% disapprove
14% Don’t Know

- Removal of Public companies, such as the Post-Office Service Company (“Correios”), from the privatization program -6 net
42% approve
48% disapprove
9% Don’t Know

- Not authorizing the selling of Brazilian Guarani tanks of the Ambulance type to Ukraine -7 net
33% approve
40% disapprove
27% Don’t Know

- Lula’s Nomination of his lawyer during Car-Wash trial, Cristiano Zanin, as the newest Supreme Court minister -7 net
40% approve
47% disapprove
13% Don’t Know

- Positioning against the autonomy of the Central Bank -8 net
37% approve
45% disapprove
18% Don’t Know

UNPOPULAR DECISIONS (Things the government has done that bring more disapproval than approval) - less than a -10 net

- Re-establishment of diplomatic ties with Venezuela and welcoming Nicolas Maduro to visit Brazil -30 net
29% approve
59% disapprove
12% Don’t Know

[buritobr]

Last year, Lula told he was not willing to run for reelection in 2026. Today, Lula said that Joe Biden's decision to run for reelection in 2024 is an stimulus for him to run for reelection in 2026. Biden was born in 1942. Lula was born in 1945.

I think it's better for Lula to say that he wants to run for reelection. Otherwise, his cabinett could become like the TV show "Succession". There could be a risk of some rivalry among ministers. If Lula decides that he is too tired and decline to run, it's better to do this in early 2026.

[Pivaru]

A few minutes ago, the Chamber of Deputies approved a tax reform bill, something Lula's government had set as one of their priorities. The negotiations to get this done were not painless, the government had to release R$ 2.1 billion in parliamentary amendments, the largest amount in history (the last record was set in May, when they released R$ 1.7 billion), it's ironic given PT's attacks against Bolsonaro for doing this same thing. That's not all, for the past few months, União Brasil has been pressuring the government to change the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro, she met with Lula today and initially, it was announced that she'd stay, but after the party threatened to vote against the bill, the government caved. Lula's Secretary of Institutional Affairs, Alexandre Padilha, has already confirmed that she'll be replaced by Celso Sabino, a deputy from União. Carneiro was involved with militias from Rio de Janeiro, Sabino is a wishy washy centrão politician involved in corruption schemes and accused of stalking his ex-wife, so you know, they're both not great people.

União had long argued that if Lula made Sabino the Minister of Tourism, they'd be a reliable part of the government's base in congress, but they've already started changing their narrative. Now they want Marcelo Freixo, the president of the Brazilian Tourist Board (Embratur), to get fired as well and replaced by one of their guys. Other centrão parties are also aiming to pressure the government Republicanos and PP are reportedly thinking of going for the Ministry of Social Development. I find it hard to believe Lula would give it up though, this is the ministry which controls Bolsa Família and it is currently presided by Wellington Dias, who is a member of PT.

Anyway, the negotiations for the tax reform bill have also created some discomfort among the right. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas. Yesterday, he discussed with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and came out in support of the bill, saying he agreed with 95% of it. Bolsonaro spent the past few days opposing the bill, calling for it's vote to be postponed so there could be more discussion, given that Tarcísio is Bolsonaro's likeliest successor at the moment, this difference in opinion made some of the more radical bolsonaristas raise their eyebrows. Bolsonaro himself was apparently not happy, saying that Tarcísio does not have the political experience necessary to run for president and that he was disappointed. The governor said he'd convince the former president to support the bill.

Tarcísio, Bolsonaro and some other right wing politicians, met today to discuss and it was a bit awkward. Tarcísio tried to defend his position, but he got booed and Bolsonaro interrupted him. Ricardo Salles, Bolsonaro's former Minister of the Environment, who was also present during the meeting, attacked Tarcísio, saying that the state of São Paulo does not have a right wing government and implying that he did a lot more to fight the left during the previous government than Tarcísio.

Romeu Zema, the Minas Gerais governor who is also seen as a potential successor to Bolsonaro also came out in favor of the tax reform bill. That said he did it in a more nonchalant way than Tarcísio and suggested a few changes, so he didn't see much backlash. By the way, there was a rumor today that Zema would leave Novo and join PL, though I don't think it's true. This same rumor has been spread a dozen times since the last election and while I do think there's a good chance he eventually joins PL, I'm skeptical that he'll do it before next year's mayoral elections.

[Red Velvet]

The Tax Reform approval in Congress had large margins. 382 in favor vs 118 against. It needed 308 votes (60% of Congress) to pass since it’s a constitutional reform.

Big victory for the Lula government. Some people will say it’s because he had to give billions in amendments to congress or the Tourism minister replacement to fulfill congressional demands or because the congress already had the intention of passing a tax reform regardless prior to the new government. This is all somewhat true BUT:

1. The “cost” to approve government projects in congress has always existed and that got worse and stronger after a decade of weak governments. Bolsonaro basically gave up governing and gave this power vacuum all for congress to fulfill. This will stay forever until the population stops voting for these zero-ideology corporate parties that only care about keeping their money and power. Until then, we all know neither the right or the left are the ones who will truly govern in the congress - it’s a “big center” never-ending monarchy.

Considering the situation and the cost, it honestly feels somewhat cheap. Big Center tried to push out the Health Minister - who isn’t a politician but a strategic technical nomination by Lula post-COVID - but Lula refused to open that door for them. And he still got this high margin of approval for the reform. I really like that balancing act he’s able to do in a chaotic country like ours.

2. The tax reform, despite the previous good will from congress, is still too “general” and depends a lot of complementary laws to define much of its structure. A lot of it is a middle ground between what the government wanted and what congress wanted, being achieved because of dialogue and compromises. Bolsonarists pressed for the reform to be rejected and they were crushed in the vote, showing that all that election talk about “Bolsonarist congress” was bullsh**t. It has always been and will keep being Big Center’s Congress with these parties.

The majority of ALL parties (minus Bolsonaro’s PL and its “libertarian” sidekick NOVO) voted in favor of the approval of the tax reform, evidencing how little these other parties really are ~Bolsonarist~

And oh, even PL had 20 dissident votes in favor! That’s because just like what happened with PSL in the previous term, the party is divided between a “Big Center faction” and another “Radical Bolsonarist faction” disputing control of the party. And you can bet many in the Big Center faction still voted against the reform just for show more than for any loyal ideological alliance with Bolsonarism lmao

Vote by Party (from biggest to smallest):

PL
20 in favor
75 against

PT
67 in favor
None against

UNIÃO BRASIL
48 in favor
11 against

PP
40 in favor
9 against

PSD
39 in favor
4 against

MDB
36 in favor
6 against

REPUBLICANOS
36 in favor
3 against

PDT
16 in favor
1 against

PSB
15 in favor
None against

PSDB
12 in favor
2 against

PODEMOS
10 in favor
2 against

PSOL
10 in favor
None against

AVANTE
6 in favor
1 against

PV
6 in favor
None against

PC do B
6 in favor
None against

SOLIDARIEDADE
4 in favor
None against

PATRIOTA
3 in favor
1 against

CIDADANIA
4 in favor
None against

PSC
2 in favor
1 against

NOVO
1 in favor
2 against

REDE
1 in favor
None against