Brazil thread 2023-

[Red Velvet]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/474596/russia-suffers-global-rebuke-invasion.aspx

This number took me by surprise, but a whopping 75 percent of Brazilians currently disapprove of the Russian leadership, the most in all of South America. Maybe Red Velvet is not the spokesperson for the people of Brazil he seems to believe he is, nor is the concept of a Global South a true alliance.

Lol not in any place every person agrees on everything and therefore no one can be a 100% spokesperson of anything. I do represent however, a significant share and growing trend that has gained track in the global south since the early 00s. And despite some disagreements I have with Lula/PT in internal matters, I can comfortably say that foreign policy is what I love about him the most and where he has my absolute trust.

The poll is a nothing burguer btw, it only shows that Brazil has a leadership position on the matter while still not approving Putin, destroying the Western narrative that everyone against unilateral sanctions or hawkish anti-peace discourse necessarily supports Putin lol

It’s what the current leadership believes in though: global south cooperation and multilateralism. No country should be able to impose economic punishments outside multilateral organizations that are truly representative of how the world looks. If he isn’t the best spokesperson for Brazil, idk if anyone can really be:

https://twitter.com/BTnewsroom/status/1648076298445619200

[Red Velvet]

I will say one thing though. I think Lula speech in China and stuff like putting Dilma out of all possible people in the BRICS bank presidency actually has the main focus of giving those matters more visibility in the center of discussions - both in the domestic and international arena.

Kinda like he was resuscitating the vibe from when he governed in the 00s because it has been 10 years since I’ve seen those topics being so discussed as they are being now. And with the advance/popularization of the internet, they now seem to be in the mouths of literally everyone instead of just a more politically educated group.

Here’s some of the content (analysis/discussions/funny and weird memes) in Brazil I’ve seen being produced ONLY after Lula’s visit to China and his calls for a less hawkish approach from western nations, showing a huge rise in the amount of interest for these discussions regardless of what exact position each person has:

https://twitter.com/JornalOGlobo/status/1650901369505845250
https://twitter.com/1eozinho01/status/1648696738142732289
https://twitter.com/loopsieart/status/1649065449563488258
https://twitter.com/jairmearrependi/status/1649035215346466816
Which is a LOT of content coming from everywhere, even being consumed outside the ultra-political niche, by average people and casual observers. So if the point was just to stimulate these discussions (nationally and internationally), whatever people’s positions are, the positioning was already a success.

[Pivaru]

A few days ago, it was confirmed that there'll be a Mixed Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry investigating the January 8 attacks (I'll just call it the January 8 CPMI since that's how most of the media refers to it), it is expected that it'll officially get installed next week. The commission will have 32 members, 16 of them will be senators and 16 will be federal deputies and afaik, it'll last 180 days.

Since last week, the media has already been speculating about who'll participate on the CPMI and some parties have already started to appoint members. I've seen reports that Bolsonaro wants his two sons, Eduardo (federal deputy) and Flávio (senator) to participate so there will be someone in the commission who'll consistently defend the former president (I mean, I think other PL politicians will do the same but whatever). I'm pretty sure Eduardo will end up participating but I'm not sure if Flávio will end getting appointed, it seems like PL will have 2 of the 16 seats in the senate and the party has been considering at least 3 other members in addition to Flávio

In the Chamber of Deputies, it seems like PL will have 3 seats. Alexandre Ramagem seems like someone who is almost guaranteed to get appointed (even more so than Eduardo) he was the Director of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency from 2019 until 2022. Ramagem believes there was negligence on the federal government's part when defending the Praça dos Três Poderes, the opposition seems to banking on him to make this narrative stick.

The government has some people they really want to see participating in the CPMI. Senators Renan Calheiros from MDB and Randolfe Rodrigues from Rede are seen as two important potential members, they had a big participation two years ago in attacking Bolsonaro during the Covid CPI, so the hope is that they'll do it again here. They also hope senators Omar Aziz and Otto Alencar, both from PSD, will also get appointed for the same reason as the previous two. That said, afaik, PSD only has 2 of the 16 seats in the senate and one of those is probably going to Eliziane Gama, so there's some female representation, so it's possible either Aziz or Alencar will not participate this time.

Federal Deputy André Janones is another name I've heard the government wants in the CPMI, though I'm not sure if he'll actually end up taking part on it or not. Janones was Lula's attack dog on social media during the last election and earlier this year, when O Globo reported on which Brazilian politicians had the most engagement in social media, he was the only pro-government one in the top 10 so it makes sense they'd want him here. That said, Janones is part of a small party (Avante) and I'm not entirely sure if they'll get to appoint anyone.

There are other names which are floating around as possible members of the CPMI but it's probably better to just wait for the parties to officially appoint everyone, I'll mention only a few more prolific people. It seems like PDT will appoint Federal Deputy Duda Salabert, which means there'll be transgender representation in the commission. Podemos is probably appointing senator Marcos do Val who is just all around a very weird guy, he seems to believe that the January 8 attacks were an inside job or something like that (and he claims he has classified documents which prove his accusations). Sergio Moro wants to be appointed, the opposition has been working in the background to make sure he gets one of the União Brasil seats in the senate, but the government expects the party to choose members from the more moderate, centrão wing of the party.

When the January 8 CPMI gets officially installed, they'll have to settle on a president for the commission and the president picks a rapporteur. The government reportedly wants Renan Calheiros to get either of these positions and Rodrigo Pacheco, the president of the Senate had supposedly already started working on trying to get this done. That said, it seems like this will not be possible, Calheiros is a political rival of Arthur Lira, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, they're both members of two important political families in Alagoas. Calheiros getting one of these positions could cause a rift between the government and one of the houses of congress, so they'll probably seek to avoid it.

The name of Federal Deputy André Fufuca was pointed as one of the likeliest ones to become president of the CPMI. He's a member of PP, the same party as Lira and they're both pretty close, he was seen as a way to pressure both the opposition and the government. That said, Fufuca decided to give up on the idea of presiding the commission yesterday. Now, the person who has the most chance of getting that job is Federal Deputy Arthur Maia, a member of União Brasil. He isn't part of the bolsonarista wing of the party, but he's also not pro-Lula, which I guess makes him someone who isn't offensive to the government or the opposition.

That said, I should mention that PL is probably going to try to get one of their guys as president of the CPMI. I've heard they want Federal Deputy André Fernandes in that seat. Fernandes is the guy who first started collecting signatures for the creation of the commission, but it is unlikely he'll get the role. The government doesn't even want Fernandes to participate in the CPMI at all, if he gets appointed by PL, they're willing to take it to court, reason being that he is currently being investigated by the Supreme Court due to possibly being involved with anti-democratic acts.

The main contender for the role of rapporteur at the moment is Senator Eduardo Braga, from MDB. He is friendly with the government, in fact, he ran for governor of Amazonas last year and was supported by Lula, his running mate was even from PT.

The January 8 commission is the one getting the most attention now, but it's not the only one being created. This week, Arthur Lira created three commissions which will only take place in the Chamber of Deputies, the most notable of which is the one investigating the Landless Workers' Movement's (known as MST in Portuguese) invasion of private property. There's this story which has been brewing in the background, mostly making rounds in right-wing internet circles about an uptick on MST invasions, the opposition accuses Lula of being too cozy with them and bending a knee to what they see as domestic terrorism.

This commission will be composed by 27 federal deputies. There's a bit of a dispute to see who'll be the rapporteur here since there are two federal deputies who want the job. The first one is Ricardo Salles, from PL, Bolsonaro's former Minister of the Environment, the second one is Kim Kataguiri, from União Brasil, one of the leaders of the Free Brazil Movement, they're both hostile to MST. Salles is seen as the favorite, having the support of Lira, his important position here is supposed to be a kind of consolation prize to PL since they're unlikely to preside the Jan 8 CPMI. Lira has asked Salles to be as moderate as possible in the position, but knowing Salles, I wouldn't really count on it. The government is trying to prevent Salles from getting the job.

Ultimately, I don't expect this commission to really get that much attention, mostly because it's probably getting overshadowed by the January 8 one.

[Red Velvet]

I’ve never seen so much international interest on Brazil before.

Reuters is reporting internal stuff like the raise of minimum wage and tax exemptions for the lower middle class. And NYT comes up with an uneducated hit piece on the MST (Movimento dos Sem-Terra) movement, which calls for unused land redistribution. It really feels like the NYT piece was written by a Bolsonarist based on the same talking points lol

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1652832873202819074
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1652789946699112451
https://twitter.com/BrianMteleSUR/status/1652648259616120832
Stuff like Telegram restriction and Bolsonarists being crazy I always saw as normal reporting because it ties with discussions the Americans are already having and they find a way to associate/relate to themselves more easily, like censorship of online platforms or the Trump populist far-right movement.

But there’s this increasing trend of stuff very specific to internal and casual Brazil matters (other than the usual cliches/stereotypes) getting a spotlight that I don’t remember them getting before.

We’ve really made it, it seems. Lula is saying too many inconvenient truths that aren’t internationally said or embraced in western spaces and it’s hitting a nerve. Besides all that Ukraine stuff there was also this in his visit to Spain:

https://twitter.com/OnlinePalEng/status/1652612652579815427

[Pivaru]

Over the last week a bill that's making it's way through the Chamber of Deputies has caught a lot of people's attention, it is called bill 2630. It's supposed to establish regulations on social media, the reason being to combat fake news, due to that, it got nicknamed the fake news bill, though the opposition has been calling it the censorship bill. Last Tuesday, the Chamber voted to fast track it (238 in favor - 192 against) and on Thursday a final draft was presented.

The bill does quite a few things, among them:

• Senators and federal deputies will now have a special status in social media, they won't be allowed to block anyone and their parliamentary immunity will be extended to what they say in social media.
• Journalistic media outlets which are more than 2 years old will have to be paid by social media platforms.
• Social media platforms will be held accountable for content which contains misinformation. They'll be given 24 hours to remove said content and, if they don't comply, they'll have to pay a fine which could range from R$50,000 to R$1,000,000 per hour until they delete the post.
• Social media platforms will have to identify if their users are normal people are bots/fake accounts, they'll have to combat this latter group and will be held accountable if they fail to do so, once again, they can be fined.
• Social media platforms will have to be very strict in identifying who is paying for ads, in particular political ones.

The previous drafts of the bill included other provisions, the most controversial of which was the creation of a government entity which would supervise the social media platforms. It got dropped so the bill could get more support from skeptical politicians in congress.

The government strongly supports the bill and it seems like passing it is one of their main priorities right now. That said, it's possible this could be Lula's first big defeat in the lower house. Aside from framing it as crucial to combat fake news, I see many attempts to frame it as necessary for saving lives. Last month Brazil had problems with attacks in schools and there have been arguments that social media made the situation worse. Ironically enough I have seen some federal deputies from PT spreading misinformation about the bill, talking about how it'd help to "protect you from scammers" (it doesn't, that's not what this bill is about at all). Mainstream media has been pretty supportive of 2630, which makes sense, they'd get more money if it got passed.

I do feel like the opposition's messaging has been better, if for no other reason that they seem to be louder and more active in this particular fight. The right has been framing the bill as censorship, that whole dropped provision about the creation of a supervising agency got framed as "the government trying to create the ministry of truth from 1984". Politicians who have ties to evangelical churches (and even some who don't have such ties) have started posting misinformation about the bill, claiming it'd "ban some parts of the bible on social media". The big social media platforms have criticized the bill, Meta released a statement saying that "it creates a system similar to that of undemocratic regimes" and Google has put a link on their home page which redirects to a statement by the company arguing against bill 2630. The government actually seems a bit annoyed at Google now, Minister of Justice and Public Security Flávio Dino said on his Twitter that he'd get Senacom, one of the government's agencies, to investigate the company due to the possibility of abusive practices in relation to their anti-bill 2630 thing.

As a side note, I do find it amusing that the evangelical types are resorting to fake news, I mean, I think the bill is pretty awful as is and has enough stuff in it that you can criticize without resorting to this. I'm not naive though, it's not hard to see why they're doing this, nothing gets that Brazilian evangelical blood boiling more than implying that the left is secretly a bunch of bible hating satanists.

Last week Telegram was blocked in Brazil due to not sending the data from members of a neonazi group to the police. The app said they couldn't send it because the data was already deleted. I've seen some people from the opposition pointing to this as a way to argue against the bill too, "they came for telegram, they'll ban other platforms too!", you know how it goes. The block only lasted two days by the way, the app's working again now.

The bill may get voted tomorrow and if it passes, it goes to the senate. The evangelical caucus, which has something like 140-150 deputies, is going to vote against it. The leader of Republicanos, a centrão party with 42 deputies (12 of which are in the evangelical caucus), has said the party is planning to vote against it. I've heard there's an effort inside PL to make sure that every single one of their 99 deputies votes against it. Word has it that if Arthur Lira, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, and the government think they don't have enough support in congress, they'll try to postpone the vote.

[Red Velvet]

I think this PL das Fake News is the first policy I strongly disagree with the government tbh.

It’s way too short-sighted imo. The government is “trustworthy” to regulate what it judges misinformation on the internet only if you like the government or if it’s a serious pragmatic one.

Imagine a crazy leader like Bolsonaro or someone like him in power, having control over whatever agency regulates social media? The past four years would have been even more unbearable because you wouldn’t know there was such strong opposition to him. And while governments come and go, policies/legislation stays. What if another person like that comes to power and finds themselves with this power?

I genuinely think the solution to fake news is people being vaccinated by it simply allowing it happen. With time, people gain the critical sense and adapt to the new “dangers” from an evolving society. So much that it’s more older people that are subjected into falling for fake news more often.

All the mainstream TV media strongly aligning with government by convenience to support this legislation also smells. Their interests are in play as they’ve lost space AND credibility to social media, so any internet speech regulation must sound like their favorite proposal yet from the government. When the talk some years ago was about regulating Media in general - in order to break up media monopolies and strengthen the rise of independent medias - they were all strongly against.

It’s bizarre how nowadays it increasingly feels like the most reasonable position is the opposite of what most people on TV are saying.

[Pivaru]

snip

Some follow ups on this situation. Yesterday Twitter had some problems with logging out users on their computers. I've seen some politicians and quite a few journalists claiming that this was made to stifle pro-bill 2630 discourse on the platform which like, no? It wasn't? The outage wasn't only in Brazil. Using fake news to push the fake news bill, ironic.

The government got Google to remove the link to their anti-bill 2630 statement.

https://twitter.com/Metropoles/status/1653426088209534976

Minister Flávio Dino's argument boils down to the following: "well, Google is not a journalistic organization, therefore, what is that text they're linking to? It can't be an editorial, right? Therefore, this is an ad! It's not marked as an ad though! This is abusive publicity, I am very smart!". It's such a weird hill to die on, like, yeah, Google is not a journalistic organization, but like, so what? This is a policy which affects the internet and as Dino himself mentions, Google is a technology company, therefore, it makes sense that this bill would affect them, why can't they link to a statement they posted on their own website about it? Sure, I dislike big tech companies, but this is just stupid.

Anyway, the government said that Google had two hours to remove the link from their homepage and if they didn't, they'd get fined, R$ 1,000,000 per hour, so Google complied. I really don't see how this helps the government, the link was fairly small and I think most people probably just ignored it, now you're drawing attention to the story. Not only that but it makes the opposition's whole song and dance about how this is a censorship bill feel more justified, regardless of whether they're actually right or wrong.

Edit: and now Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered the police to talk with executives from Meta, Google, Spotify and Brasil Paralelo (this last one is a Brazilian company which makes videos pushing revisionist right-wing narratives about history) due to the possibility of "abuse of power" in their anti-bill 2630 activities.

It's not entirely clear if the vote is happening today after all, the opposition seems to want it to be so. The evangelical caucus calculates they have the votes to defeat the bill, they say they have at least 260 against (257 is a majority of the Chamber of Deputies). Since yesterday PSDB-Cidadania has also come out against the bill. Lula and Lira have both met today to discuss how to proceed and I'm not sure what conclusion they came to. I've seen one source claiming the vote is going to take place, but I'll wait for some more to confirm.

Edit: session has started in the Chamber of Deputies. Lira said the bill will only be voted on if he believes it'll pass.

In any case, if they do vote on it, I hope the government loses (though I'd rather not get my hopes up).

[Red Velvet]

I believe the matters that would be regulated are listed in the project and most of them sound pretty reasonable, especially regarding ones about actual crimes committed online, but the framing of this as “PL das Fake News” creates so many problems…

I don’t think fake news should ever be restricted tbh. If anything people should get more of a critical sense in order to investigate and decide for themselves.

Even some of the “hate speech” restriction sounds kinda off even if less bad. Because the interpretation of what exactly constitutes or not stuff like sexism or racism can change depending of the observing person in power. Imagine Bolsonaro (agencies under his control) using idk, valid criticisms/attacks on his wife as “sexism” in order to repress people from talking it. Same thing could be used by others too.

I do think it’s a more complex discussion though because censorship and/or abuse of power already exists by these big tech foreign companies and their algorithms dictating what gets discussed, so I do think SOMETHING needs to be done but not sure what exactly. I am not sure more regulation over whatever is said is necessarily best path though.

In the end I think the most ideal should be more transparency from these platforms regarding their guidelines, algorithms, etc. But not just them tbh. Let’s be real: a bias always existed and will always exist from all sides, even TV news have their own interests when reporting the news and that was never considered a problem even if the Brazilian mainstream media has already done stuff like, supporting and validating a military coup in 1964 through the use if their influence.

The main differential component this time is that these big tech companies are all gringos, which adds the national sovereignty concern discussion this time - and it’s actually the strongest main argument IMO in favor of the PL. After all, we’ve seen these big tech companies allowing, sometimes even pushing, specific narratives over others during the past decade, many of which are regarded now as an embarrassment.

So I guess it’s like, a matter of what your bigger fear is and who you trust less tbh. Your own national government, which can eventually easily became authoritarian as we’ve seen in 2018, OR some US private company who holds zero stakes on the national interest and who knows whether they can be used to promote instability when convenient to foreign interests?

[Pivaru]

Lira and the government didn't have enough support to pass bill 2630 today, the project's rapporteur, Congressman Orlando Silva, asked for the vote to be postponed and Lira agreed. There's no new date for the vote for now, but apparently, Silva's wants the Chamber to revisit it in two weeks or so.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So is Lula going to keep insisting on the “both sides” bit with the Russo-Ukrainian war when one side is saying this?
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1653799406775283720?s=46

[Pivaru]

Early in then morning today, the police raided Bolsonaro's home and seized the former president's phone. The operation is the result of an investigation over Bolsonaro's vaccine records, which he apparently falsified last December, before going to the USA. His daughter's records were also falsified, as well as those of Mauro Cid, one of Bolsonaro's right hand men, Cid's wife and daughter's.

Cid was already the focus of some attention since the beginning of the year due to another scandal involving the former president. During his presidency, he received some jewelry from Saudi Arabia but didn't declare them, secretly storing the jewels in a farm belonging to Nelson Piquet. Cid was responsible for getting the jewelry out of customs in São Paulo and was being investigated due to that.

Aside from Bolsonaro, other 15 people got their houses raided due to this vaccination thing, Cid included. 6 people have been arrested, once again, Cid included. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing on his part, saying he falsified nothing and maintaining that he didn't take the vaccine.

The president of PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, has defended Bolsonaro, saying he is confident that it'll be shown in the courts that the former president is innocent. The leader of the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies, Carlos Jordy, called the operation shameful and the leader of PL in the Chamber, Altineu Côrtes, implied the operation is a way for the government to strike back after their defeat yesterday in the bill 2630 vote.

Also, Lula settled on a new name to head the Institutional Security Bureau, Marcos Antônio Amaro dos Santos, a general who had already acted in this position during Dilma's government. This is getting overshadowed by the Bolsonaro story though.

[buritobr]

Very sad day in Brazil today.

First, former representative and Glenn Greenwald's husband David Miranda (37) passed away. He had been in the hospital in the last 9 months.

Few hours after, Rita Lee (75), the biggest Brazilian female rock star, passed away. He was an iconic figure in the history of the Brazilian popular music.

Both, rest in peace

[buritobr]

Celso Amorim, the president's advisor for foreign relations, traveled to Ukraine, in order to meet Volodymyr Zelensky. He had already met Vladimir Putin in Russia one month ago.
Brazil wants to creat a group of countries in order to mediate a peace agreement.

[Red Velvet]

Spain and I think France are the best potential Brazilian allies inside the West for the construction of a peace plan.

Spain has always been a moderation voice inside NATO while also having Latin friendship ties to us and France is naturally more independent, giving value to an independent European sovereignty.

Other countries are culturally more distant or with smaller weight in geopolitical dynamics. Germany is with a leadership vacuum post-Merkel and still has not found its voice, they feel lost and confused in this whole thing. Portugal should have been our biggest supporters on paper but as I said before, there are old historic European internal dynamics + actual resentment from a minority against us that makes this not be possible. Eastern Europe otoh seems set on harsh warhawk path, so any initial movement you can get for this will have to come from Western Europe.

Pedro Sanchez from Spain is meeting with Biden soon and will probably ask for the US to give more weight to Brazil and China peace proposals, according to a Spanish diplomatic source to Reuters.

[buritobr]

CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

International Issues

Brazil's financial assistance to Argentina
24% agree
69% disagree

How should Brazilian government behave concerning the Russia-Ukraine War?
12.1% support Ukraine
41.0% stay neutral
2.0% support Russia
33.3% should not have a position

How do you perceive the position of the Brazilian government?
11.1% supporting Ukraine, USA, EU
36.9% keeping neutral
19.5% supporting Russia, China
32.5% don't know

Most important place for Brazil to strengh relations
43.4% USA
11.6% China
8.5% South America
7.0% EU
1.4% Russia

Complete poll here: https://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/governo-lula-e-aprovado-por-43-e-reprovado-por-24-diz-pesquisa-cnt-mda/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

If his approval rating holds, do you think he'll go back on his "no fourth term" pledge?

[Pivaru]

CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

If his approval rating holds, do you think he'll go back on his "no fourth term" pledge?

He already said in February that he may run if the country is in a "delicate situation" and some important people from PT like José Dirceu and Rui Costa have already defended the idea that he can and maybe even should run in 2026. If he's still this popular by then, I find it hard to believe he wouldn't run. I imagine that if Bolsonaro is eligible and runs for president in 2026, that could also make Lula more prone to running again (though this is just speculation on my part and I don't think Bolsonaro will run again).

[buritobr]

CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

If his approval rating holds, do you think he'll go back on his "no fourth term" pledge?

He already mentioned the possibility of running and not running in 2026. His age can be an issue, but Joe Biden will run in 2024, >80 candidates are not impossible anymore.
Probably Lula will check if one of his ministers or a PT governor or senator have enough popularity. Fernando Haddad would be a natural candidate, since he was already candidate in 2018 and many people know him. But there is a problem: many people in the left don't have a positive view of his job as Minister of Finance. They think that he is too pro-austerity.

[Red Velvet]

Interesting questions regarding the PL das Fake News. I think it’s the first I see actually. Most people support more regulation, so that shouldn’t be a winning issue for the right to make noise about:

- Do you consider necessary regulation/control of communication in message apps, websites and searching online platforms?

51% say “Yes, it is necessary”
38% say “No, it isn’t necessary”

- Do you consider democratic the regulation/control of communication on the internet?

49% say “Yes, it’s democratic”
38% say “No, it isn’t democratic”

Regarding international issues, the government is aligned with the population regarding Ukraine, with its actions being perceived as neutral and population defending exactly this neutrality.

It was also a correct decision to not lend money to Argentina through BNDES, as that would be an actual international issue that most people would take issue with. The “good brother” internationalism from 00s would be extremely unpopular nowadays with the popularization of nationalism combined with Argentina’s bad reputation as a reliable payer. Which is why Lula turned to China to possibly help Argentina through the brics bank instead.

[CumbrianLefty]

CNT poll today

Lula's approval rate
57.4% Approve
34.8% Disapprove

Lula's administration now
46.5% Better than Bolsonaro's
22.0% equal
26.7% Worse than Bolsonaro's

If his approval rating holds, do you think he'll go back on his "no fourth term" pledge?

He already mentioned the possibility of running and not running in 2026. His age can be an issue, but Joe Biden will run in 2024, >80 candidates are not impossible anymore.

But equally, it isn't a trend that should be encouraged.

[Pivaru]

Some of the parliamentary commissions of inquiry (CPI) announced at the end of April have finally started getting officially installed. They were supposed to start at the start of May, but other issues like the PL 2630 vote, the discussion on the new fiscal rule and just the general slowness of the parties to appoint the commission's members ended up slowing the process down.

The commission investigating investigating the Landless Workers' Movement (MST) will be composed by the following federal deputies:

Capitão Alden (PL)
Caroline de Toni (PL)
Delegado Éder Mauro (PL)
Domingos Sávio (PL)
Ricardo Salles (PL)
Padre João (PT)
Nilto Tatto (PT)
Valmir Assunção (PT)
Paulão (PT)
Alfredo Gaspar (União)
Kim Kataguiri (União)
Nicoletti (União)
Ana Paula Leão (PP)
Delegado Fabio Costa (PP)
Evair de Melo (PP)
Hercílio Coelho Diniz (MDB)
Marussa Boldrin (MDB)
Messias Donato (Republicanos)
Tenente-Coronel Zucco (Republicanos)
Charles Fernandes (PSD)
Lucas Redecker (PSDB)
Max Lemos (PDT)
Magda Mofatto (Patriota)
Sâmia Bomfim (PSOL)
PSB and Podemos also have the right for one appointment each, but they haven't submitted who they'd like to appoint.

Coronel Zucco will be the commission's president, Kim Kataguiri the vice-president and Ricardo Salles the rapporteur. Most of the commission is formed by bolsonaristas (Salles himself was a minister during Bolsonaro's government) and people with connections to the agricultural sector (Zucco and Salles both are part of this group too). There was a dispute between Kataguiri and Salles to decide who'd be the rapporteur, but after the president of PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, did some articulations behind the scenes, he guaranteed the spot for Salles.

There's a dispute in the background between Salles and Neto. Salles wants to run for mayor of São Paulo next year, but Neto doesn't seem very fond of the idea. Valdemar's evaluation is that the city is too left wing to elect someone as radical as Salles, they'd be better off supporting the incumbent mayor, Ricardo Nunes or running someone more moderate like Senator Marcos Pontes. Neto's goal is for PL to elect 1600 mayors aligned with them next year (about 30% of all mayors in the country).

In Neto's mind, by supporting Salles now, he'll have more leverage to argue against the federal deputy next year, you know, "I supported you in the CPI, now do me a favor and don't run", something like that. Salles doesn't see it that way, he wants to use this position to get his name out there.

The members of the CPI are already discussing who to summon to be questioned. Some names that have been floated include João Pedro Stédile, one of the leadership figures in MST, José Rainha, another leadership figure, Ricardo Lewandowski, a former supreme court justice who has made some mildly flattering comments about MST and some of Lula's ministers like Flávio Dino, Paulo Teixeira and Carlos Fávaro.

There's one more notable person that could end up being summoned, Guilherme Boulos, a federal deputy from PSOL who's a member of the Homeless Workers' Movement (MTST), an offshoot of MST. Boulos is running for mayor of São Paulo next year and is currently the candidate who has the highest name recognition, naturally, he is leading, he's also very likely to get Lula's support. Questioning him here would obviously be intended to hurt his bid next year.

The commission investigating the January 8 acts will be officially installed next Thursday, on the 25th. The appointed names so far are the following:

In the senate:
Soraya Thronicke (União)
Davi Alcolumbre (União)
Marcos do Val (Podemos)
Cid Gomes (PDT)
Eliziane Gama (PSD)
Omar Aziz (PSD)
Otto Alencar (PSD)
Fabiano Contarato (PT)
Rogério Carvalho (PT)
Ana Paula Lobato (PSB)
Eduardo Girão (Novo)
Magno Malta (PL)
Esperidião Amin (PP)
Damares Alves (Republicanos)
MDB will still appoint their two members.

In the chamber:
Arthur Oliveira Maia (União)
Duarte (PSB)
Carlos Sampaio (PSDB)
Duda Salabert (PDT)
Paulo Magalhães (PSD)
Rafael Brito (MDB)
Aluisio Mendes (Republicanos)
Rodrigo Gambale (Podemos)
André Fernandes (PL)
Delegado Ramagem (PL)
Filipe Barros (PL)
Rubens Pereira Júnior (PT)
Rogério Correia (PT)
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB)
Erika Hilton (PSOL)
There's still one vacant spot here, I think PSC is the party which gets to appoint this last name, but I'm not sure.

The names of the president, vice-president and rapporteur still haven't been announced, but there's already some discussion on who they'll end up summoning. I've seen the names of Bolsonaro's wife, Michele and of General Augusto Heleno, the head of the Institutional Security Bureau between 2019 and 2022 being floated.

Compared to the MST commission, this one is a lot friendlier to the government. I wouldn't go as far as to say it is straight up controlled by Lula's base, there's a lot of Centrão people here, but the government does have close to a majority of the commission, so the bolsonaristas aren't expected to be able to just easily define the narrative.

In other news, a few days ago Deltan Dallagnol, a federal deputy from Podemos (the most voted from Paraná last year) got his mandate revoked by the Superior Electoral Court, it was an unanimous decision by the 7 justices. The court argued that in 2021, when Deltan left his job at the Public Prosecutor's Office (known as PGR in Portuguese), he was being investigated, leaving made it so he evaded punishments by the PGR, which constitutes fraud or something among those lines. Due to the Ficha Limpa law, that makes Dallagnol ineligible for the next 8 years. He was notable for having been the chief prosecutor of Operation Car Wash.

Responses to this have been about what you'd expect, the establishment centrão politicians are pleased, the right says the decision is baseless and the court is persecuting them, the left despises anyone who was involved with Car Wash so they're happy. If nothing else it is ironic that Deltan falls victim to the law which prevented Lula from running in 2018.

This news is bad not only for Dallagnol but also for Sergio Moro. There's a process moved by PL making it's way through the justice system to revoke Moro's mandate and from what I hear, the consensus in Brasilia is that by the end of the year, Moro will be also declared ineligible.

Even if Moro is able to keep his seat in the senate, Deltan's ineligibility is still bad for him. It's pretty obvious he has political ambitions for 2026 and word has it that he has given thought to the idea of running for governor of Paraná that year. He'd certainly be the favorite at first since the popular incumbent, Ratinho Junior, would be term limited and Moro has high name recognition. The plan was for Dallagnol to run for mayor of Curitiba next year, the capital and largest city of the state, having an ally leading such an important city would without a doubt make Moro's job easier if he did decide to run for governor after all.

[Red Velvet]

Lula questions the legitimacy of the G7 at the bloc's summit and attacks minimal state

Invited to participate in the G7 summit, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used his speech at the event this Saturday (20) to question the very legitimacy of the group and defend a reform of global institutions to allow emerging countries to have more voice in decisions.

Lula also criticized what he called the "mistake" of neoliberalism and, before the presidents of the richest democracies in the world, questioned the failure of the main powers to deal with international crises.

When listing the various challenges facing the world, Lula stated that the solution "does not lie in the formation of antagonistic blocs or answers that contemplate only a small number of countries".

"This will be particularly important in this context of transition to a multipolar order, which will require profound changes in institutions", he said.

"Our decisions will only be legitimate and effective if they are taken and implemented democratically," he said, referring to the need for more countries to be part of global decisions. At the meeting, Lula was sitting next to Joe Biden, president of the USA.

The Brazilian was hesitant to accept the invitation from the Japanese hosts and only agreed to go to the summit after it became clear that the invited countries would have more space. In addition to Brazil, governments such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and others are in Hiroshima.

“It makes no sense to call on emerging countries to contribute to resolving the 'multiple crises' facing the world without their legitimate concerns being addressed, and without them being adequately represented in the main global governance bodies”

In the midst of the G7, Lula preferred to highlight the existence of another group, the G20. But he defended that it be expanded to the African continent.

“The consolidation of the G-20 as the main space for international economic concertation was an undeniable advance. It will be even more effective with a composition that dialogues with the demands and interests of all regions of the world. This implies more adequate representation of African countries”

Lula once again defended UN reform: "Coalitions are not an end in themselves, and serve to leverage initiatives in plural spaces such as the UN system and its partner organizations".

"Without reform of its Security Council, with the inclusion of new permanent members, the UN will not recover the effectiveness, political and moral authority to deal with the conflicts and dilemmas of the 21st century", he said.

“A more democratic world in decision-making that affects everyone is the best guarantee of peace, sustainable development, the rights of the most vulnerable and protection of the planet. Before it's too late”

Criticism of neoliberalism, the minimal State and insufficient reforms

While speaking, Lula also recalled that the last time he participated in the G7, in 2009, the world was facing "a global financial crisis of catastrophic proportions, which led to the creation of the G20 and exposed the fragility of the dogmas and mistakes of neoliberalism".

But he regretted that all the reforms proposed at that time were not implemented.

"The reforming impetus of that moment was insufficient to correct the excesses of market deregulation and the apology of the minimal State", said the Brazilian president.

“The global financial architecture has changed little and the foundations of a new economic governance have not been laid”

Lula also pointed to "important setbacks, such as the weakening of the multilateral trade system". "The protectionism of rich countries has gained strength and the World Trade Organization remains paralyzed. Nobody remembers the Development Round", he insisted.

According to him, the challenges accumulated and got worse. "With each threat we fail to face, we generate new urgencies", he highlighted.

Lula also pointed out that, today, the world is experiencing the overlapping of multiple crises: the covid-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, a war in the heart of Europe, pressures on food and energy security and threats to democracy.

"To face these threats, it is necessary to have a change of mentality. It is necessary to overthrow myths and abandon paradigms that have collapsed", he defended.

"The global financial system has to be at the service of production, work and employment. We will only have real sustainable growth directing efforts and resources towards the real economy", he said.

He also criticized the way the world deals with indebted countries.

"The foreign indebtedness of many countries, which victimized Brazil in the past and today devastates Argentina, is the cause of blatant and growing inequality, and requires a treatment from the International Monetary Fund that considers the social consequences of adjustment policies", he said.

"Unemployment, poverty, hunger, environmental degradation, pandemics and all forms of inequality and discrimination are problems that demand socially responsible responses", he spoke, defending a "State that induces public policies aimed at guaranteeing fundamental rights and well-being collective".

Lula called for "a State that fosters the ecological and energy transition, green industry and infrastructure".

"The false dichotomy between growth and environmental protection should already be overcome. The fight against hunger, poverty and inequality must return to the center of the international agenda, ensuring adequate financing and technology transfer. For this we already have a compass, multilaterally agreed upon: the 2030 Agenda", he added.

“Shall we have no illusions. No country will be able to face today's systemic threats through isolation”

https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/jamil-chade/2023/05/20/lula-questiona-legitimidade-do-g7-em-cupula-do-bloco-e-quer-reforma-da-onu.htm

[Red Velvet]

Some other stuff from Brazil in G7:

- Japan is saying it will end visa restrictions for Brazilian travellers after a Brazil-Japan meeting.

- There were also Bilateral meetings between Brazil-Australia; Brazil-Indonesia; Brazil-France and Brazil-Germany that happened. Also a meeting with the IMF director.

- There’s a scheduled bilateral meeting of Brazil-India, before the arrival of Zelenskyy

- Ukraine is requesting meetings with leaders from both India and Brazil

- USA wants a meeting to talk with Brazil (and India too) about the Ukraine War as well but that isn’t scheduled by the Brazilian agenda that was publicly announced by Brazil

[Pivaru]

Paraná Pesquisas poll:

Lula's approval rating:
Approve - 54.1%
Disapprove - 39.4%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 6.5%

Has Lula's government been great, good, bad, awful or regular so far?
Good/Great - 39.7%
Bad/Awful - 32.7%
Regular - 24.9%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 2.7%

Has Lula been doing better or worse than you expected?
Better - 29.0%
About what I expected - 38.0%
Worse - 27.6%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 5.4%

Perception of the economy since Lula took office:
The economy got better - 26.8%
The economy got worse - 25.8%
The economy didn't really change - 45.4%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 2.0%


The groups which approve Lula the most are people from the Northeast (67.4%), people who only have a high school diploma (60.4%), those who are not part of the workforce (60.8%), people are are between 16 and 24 (59.8%) and those above 60 (58.5%).

The groups which disapprove Lula the most are those who have higher education (47.4%), men (43.6%), those who are part of the workforce (43.3%) and people between 25 and 34 (43.4%)

[Estrella]

War-torn FC Mariupol reborn in Brazil: ‘The least we could do to help give hope’

A Ukrainian community in southern Brazil has decided to turn its local football team into FC Mariupol, a top-flight club disbanded after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in a show of solidarity with the war-torn country.

AA Batel, a team from the Prudentópolis region in Paraná, said on Monday they will take on Mariupol’s kit, crest and logo a year after the Ukrainian club’s facilities and stadium were destroyed in the invasion which Moscow calls a special military operation.

“The club represents the identity of our community and our community is more than 70% Ukrainian and Ukrainian descendants,” said the AA Batel president, Alex Lopes. “Ukraine has always been incredibly supportive of great Brazilian football talent and became an important gateway for players to enter the European market. This is the least we could do to help keep their club alive and give hope to Ukrainians all across the world.”