2008 Presidential Predictions

[Dave Leip]

With the early nature of the 2008 Presidential Contest, I've gone ahead and created the 2008 Presidential Predictions section early as well.  Try it out and write some words about your early prognostications - who do you expect to be the candidates of the major parties? - how will the states vote? - will there be a strong independent?  Please let me know if you find any issues with the scripts.
Thanks and enjoy,
Dave

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Thanks Dave.  Awesome as always!

Is someone going to start compiling a list of poll results, both Generic D vs. R and, say, Clinton v. Giuliani?

[Dave Leip]

Glad you like it.  My next atlas feature will be to add the 2008 polling script - I'll attempt to build a Primary version for D & R first followed by the general version.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Good work Dave, like Alcon, I too will start off with Clinton vs Giuliani.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

Looks Dem to me.

[BushKenya]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

I think its based on 2004 results.  I could be wrong, though.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

Looks Dem to me.

It is showing me Rep for Ohio.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

Looks Dem to me.

It is showing me Rep for Ohio.

Here?

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php

Try refresh (F5)?  Clear your cache?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Dave I have a question. Why is Ohio on the Republican's side when over half of the people put it on the Democrat's. How is it calculated to determine which party it goes to?

Looks Dem to me.

It is showing me Rep for Ohio.

Here?

http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php

Try refresh (F5)?  Clear your cache?

Thanks thats better...

[Padfoot]

Glad you like it.  My next atlas feature will be to add the 2008 polling script - I'll attempt to build a Primary version for D & R first followed by the general version.

Does that mean there will be a map of the current poll leaders for both D & R like the one on the wikipedia pages?

[Hashemite]

Love it. Any way to include a clip of the predictions below our names?

[Dave Leip]

Prediction icon is now below your name - furthest map to the left.

BTW, with the version control nature of the scripts, you can create different versions for different scenarios of candidates if you like (note: only one different version is saved per day to reduce spamming). 

I'm also a bit surprised that the so many predictions to date show the Northeast (esp. CT, NH, ME, and NJ) to not be in play.  Note though, I don't know whom most of the D&R candidates are predicted to be - I suggest that in the analysis section, at least add the names of the candidates for your prediction maps.

Enjoy,
Dave

[Tender Branson]

Question to Dave regarding the 2004 prediction page:

There were 1998 predictions made for OHIO, 1000 predicted a Bush victory and 998 a Kerry victory, yet OH is colored red.

Or did I just get something wrong here ?

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php

[Dave Leip]

Hi,
The maps are compiled from the "most recent entries" - from those predictions made in the last several weeks prior to the election.  I'll have to check to find out how many that was - maybe I'll update the script so that the statistics show the most recent figures as well.
Thanks,
Dave

[Gustaf]

Well, well...what can one say? Excellent job as usual, I agree that the prediction maps were needed now to keep up with the level of debate! Thank you very much Dave.

[Buddha]

Of course, this could all be relatively unimportant if the electoral college is made obsolete before then, by the interstate contract movement.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, this could all be relatively unimportant if the electoral college is made obsolete before then, by the interstate contract movement.

Fat chance of it happening in time for the 2008 election.

[opebo]

Is the the appropriate place to comment on the compiled 'median' prediction map?  I just noticed Colorado flipped Democrat!  Nevada can't be far behind.  I also noticed Missouri went from Lean on the confidence factor to 'tossup'.

[True Federalist]

I've done the cache reload thing so that can't be the problem.  Nevada has 59 Dem predictions, 58 Rep predictions and 1 Ind prediction, yet it's showing up as an R-40 Tossup, when I would expect it to be either a D-30 Tossup or a No result based on the raw numbers.

[Dave Leip]

I've found a slight error in the median calculation algorithm (has to do with independents being added to the script).  I believe I've fixed issue that sets the map winner incorrectly when the states are close and an independent candidate has more than 0 wins.

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to start making forecasts as well (but can't access it), could you link my forum account to the atlas please?

[Dave Leip]

I would like to start making forecasts as well (but can't access it), could you link my forum account to the atlas please?

You are already linked (see the predictions for Senate below your avatar).  What error do you receive when you try to create your prediction?

[Harry Hayfield]

I'd not put a space in my username!!!

[bonncaruso]

Great forum, great idea.

It is, however, sad that certain posters decide to use the projections area to spread vile hate of the other side instead of using analysis and debate. I am certain this is not what the founding fathers intended nor is it of help to any kind of debate between human beings with brains in their heads. I was just confronted with a posting comparing Hillary Clinton to the NAZI era between 1933-1945 and find it incredibly stupid and hateful and vile, especially for jewish americans who contribute to this website.

Before a huge flame war over Hillary Clinton erupts, perhaps her detractors should really start looking at polls coming out of many places and more all the time, with her positives far HIGHER than her negatives.  And a woman senator does not get this far without possessing great intelligence, perserverance and iron will, qualities befitting a president.

And for those who want to dis the GOPers, I submit to you that this crew of 9 candidates is the brightest and most talented that the GOP that I have ever seen throw their hats in the ring at the same time. The DEMS should not automatically assume that, just because a mighty wind is blowing against the GOP right now, that that mighty wind will still be there in November of 2008, especially if a GOP nominee arises who can capture the imagination of the american people.

And finally, in a year before an election year that has most obviously become an election year in and of itself, with the populace already being bombarded with ads and mail and the like, if we start to see consistent polls all the time, then the race may already be decided in March or April 2008.  If not, then be prepared for everything, from a huge DEM or GOP landslide (a real blowout election) or once again, a nail-biter, but I doubt that the so-called "in-between solid win" will happen.

In the predictions area, we are asked to forget the standard accepted mode of blue-vs-red states, which is a good idea, as Clinton is already making inroads in the south where she was not expected to. But with Thompson suddenly in the GOP ring, this could all change once again.

So please, I ask of fellow posters to keep it clean and respectful.